Walking into the 105th PGA Championship, many thought Masters Champion Jon Rahm would be taking home the Wanamaker Trophy. Rahm rebounded nicely in Round 2, but his first-round rough antics may be too much to recover from. He’s nine shots back going into the weekend at Oak Hill.
From the first moment I walked the East Course, I noticed the rough. It is thick, uniform, and unkind. Judge and jury of any wayward shot, watching these guys continually struggle from off the fairway is entertaining. Pre-tournament there was tremendous focus on strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT). It was one of the leading indicators I was using for considering who will contend.
Following 36 holes of competition and studying the results, I see SG:OTT has taken a secondary seat to approach play. Looking at the strokes gained approach (SG:APP) leaderboard, five of the top six are in the top 10 after two rounds. Iron accuracy is always a tremendous indicator of player success, and this major championship is no different.
These impeccable green surfaces have really challenged these guys when it was dry. As the rain moved in this afternoon, the field of players in that AM/PM wave had a considerable advantage. At one point the cut looked as if it might go as high as +6. The softness stopped that climb and it settled on +5. If one of your outrights or placements didn’t make it through, then the rest of this feature is definitely for you.
PGA Championship 2023: Live Outright Odds
Odds board courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Only odds better than +10000 listed.
| Golfer | Winner |
| Scottie Scheffler | +160 |
| Viktor Hovland | +400 |
| Corey Conners | +700 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1000 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +1400 |
| Rory McIlroy | +2100 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +3600 |
| Justin Rose | +4100 |
| Justin Suh | +4600 |
| Dustin Johnson | +5000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +5500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +7500 |
| Shane Lowry | +7500 |
| Jon Rahm | +12000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +12000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +12000 |
| Min Woo Lee | +12000 |
| Callum Tarren | +12000 |
| Mito Pereira | +16000 |
| Adam Svensson | +16000 |
| Eric Cole | +24000 |
| Sepp Straka | +26000 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | +28000 |
| Adam Scott | +28000 |
| Xander Schauffele | +28000 |
| Max Homa | +28000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +28000 |
| Ryan Fox | +28000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +28000 |
| Harold Varner | +28000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +28000 |
| Cameron Davis | +28000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | +28000 |
| Cameron Smith | +43000 |
| Beau Hossler | +43000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +43000 |
| Sam Stevens | +43000 |
| Patrick Reed | +55000 |
| Tony Finau | +55000 |
| Victor Perez | +55000 |
| Dean Burmester | +55000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +55000 |
| Justin Thomas | +65000 |
| Tom Hoge | +65000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +65000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +65000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +65000 |
| Michael Block | +65000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +65000 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +65000 |
| J.T. Poston | +65000 |
| Taylor Moore | +65000 |
| Padraig Harrington | +65000 |
PGA Championship: Weekend betting adjustments
Be careful how you react to in-play betting following a troubling opening Thursday-Friday session. Your first instinct will be to chase, but the truth is; discretion is the “bettor” part of valor. Start by making adjustments like the evolution of the analytics I pointed out above. Don’t just stick with all of your pre-tournament predictions and perspectives.
Much like a coach at halftime, let your gameplan evolve. Above all else, if your outrights are dead, don’t chase more. Adding one is fine, but be smart and start to diversify your weekend portfolio. Pay attention to those who are living up to expectations. Each player has a profile, look for the ones who are matching theirs. For example, if there’s a great T2G player who is having a good ball striking week and exceeding expectations with his putter, that’s a solid selection.
Take those players and start to build a weekend card with a couple of placements. Back those up with some Saturday and Sunday H2H matchups. In doing this, you can chip away at any bets you are behind. I’m sure some of your pre-tourney plays will also be in play, so pay attention to those outcomes as well.
More wet weather is expected throughout Saturday. Oak Hill does possess sub-air under the greens. They can try to dry the surfaces overnight, but if the rain continues all day tomorrow, approach play will become more significant. Switch your skill set focus and follow me into the weekend at Oak Hill and the close of the PGA Championship.
PGA Championship: Weekend Best Bets
Best bet to win: Rory McIlroy (+2200 on FanDuel)
Rory just put the press room on tilt, saying “I’m going to hit driver everywhere and attack.”
McIlroy started the tournament at +1000 odds and with 36-holes back and five behind we can get him at +2200. He has the firepower to catch up and the course knowledge. Rory’s wife is from Rochester and he is an honorary member of Oak Hill. His approach game is top-5 and the putter is positive. If you didn’t have him to open round one, now is the time to grab him.
Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Jon Rahm (+105 on DraftKings)
You can win even money on Jon Rahm to finish in the top-20. At +4, he is just three strokes out of that finishing spot. Tied 19 is currently +1 and with 36 holes left — I will take one of the two best golfers in the world to close that gap and offer a positive return.
Take Corey Conners over Keith Mitchell H2H (-120 on DraftKings)
Corey Conners is in the lead because he is top 10 T2G and top-5 with the putter in the field through 36 holes. Keith Mitchell has remained in contention due to his great driving and a hot putter. When the greens get soft tomorrow, Conner’s approach game will separate him from Mitchell and win H2H.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
