After 2,460 regular season games, the playoffs are here.
Leading the way in the Eastern Conference are the Raptors, Celtics, 76ers and Cavaliers. While they each won 50 or more games this season, the Raptors managed to sneak past the Celtics, 76ers and Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed in the conference. A ticket to the NBA Finals still runs through LeBron James, who has been playing through the month of June since the 2009-10 season, but the Raptors reinvented themselves on both ends of the court this season, to the point where they enter the playoffs as the only team with a top-five offense and defense.
As good as the Raptors have been in the past — they set a franchise record in 2015-16 with 56 wins, a mark they beat this season — they’ve never been this prepared for James and the Cavaliers.
Less teams won 50-plus games in the Western Conference, but the standings weren’t set until the last day of the season. Although the fight over the No. 1 seed involved only two teams, there ended up being only two games separating the Trail Blazers at No. 3 from the Timberwolves at No. 8. It should make for a competitive road to the NBA Finals, with the Blazers, Thunder, Jazz, Pelicans, Spurs and Timberwolves each looking for an opportunity to take down the Rockets and Warriors at some point in the postseason.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at six questions that will likely determine the outcome of this year’s playoffs, starting with the team that has the most to lose in the opening round.
Can the Raptors' bench make the same impact?
The Raptors’ second unit destroyed teams this season. The combination of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, CJ Miles, Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl outscored opponents by an average of 17.1 points per 100 possessions, giving them the 10th-highest net rating in the league of lineups that appeared in at least 20 regular season games together . They got it done on both ends of the court, too, scoring at a rate of 116.2 points per 100 possessions on offense and holding teams to 99.1 points per 100 possessions on defense.
For context, the Warriors led the league with an offensive rating of 112.3, and the Celtics led the league with a defensive rating of 101.5. The team with the highest net rating was the Rockets, with a margin of 8.5 points per 100 possessions.
The question is whether the Raptors’ second unit can have the same success in the postseason. Teams usually shorten their rotations in the playoffs, not give five bench players nearly a quarter’s worth of minutes every game. Raptors head coach Dwane Casey said that he’ll stick with the bench in the hopes of finding out if they can have the same success in the playoffs , but it’ll be interesting to see how he responds if they don’t make the same impact as they did during the regular season.
If they do make the same impact, it could give the Raptors the edge they need to beat the Cavaliers.
How long can the Warriors survive without Stephen Curry?
Stephen Curry is the heart and soul of the Warriors. They managed to get the better of teams without him on the court this season — one of the many benefits of having three other All-Stars on the roster, in addition to seasoned veterans like David West, Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala — but they were 14.3 points per 100 possessions better offensively with him in the lineup. It gave Curry the best offensive rating in the NBA, besting Chris Paul in second place by a margin of 3.8 points per 100 possessions.
It should come as no surprise given his numbers this season of 26.4 points and 6.1 assists per game on 49.5 percent shooting from the field and 42.3 percent shooting from the perimeter. He missed too many games with injuries to be considered a legitimate MVP candidate, and yet Curry played at almost the same level as the season he was named unanimous MVP.
Curry’s absence might not make a huge difference in the opening round of the playoffs, but there’s no doubt the Warriors will need him to be as close to full strength as possible to win back-to-back NBA titles. With how competitive the Western Conference has been this season, the sooner they get him back the better, but they can’t afford him suffering another injury between now and June.
Can LeBron James do it again?
With averages of 27.5 points, 9.1 assists, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks per game, LeBron James had another incredible season. The only players who have ever averaged that many points at the age of 33 are Dominique Wilkins, Michael Jordan, Alex English, Bernard King, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone and Wilt Chamberlain. None of them, however, came close to filling up the box score in the way James did this season.
As much as those numbers speak to how dominant James still is, they also speak to how much the Cavaliers have needed him to step up this season. Without Kyrie Irving or Isaiah Thomas in the backcourt, James took on even more responsibility, boosting his usage rate from 30.0 percent last season to 31.6 percent this season and going from taking 18.2 field goal attempts per game to 19.3 field goal attempts per game, the latter of which is most he’s averaged since the 2009-10 season.
Their reliance on his playmaking showed up even more in the clutch, when James boosted his stats to 46.9 points, 12.4 rebounds and 7.6 assists per 36 minutes with a usage rating of 47.6 percent. It helped the Cavaliers outscore opponents by 20.3 points per 100 possessions , which was enough for them to win 30 of their 45 games that went down to the wire.
If the Cavaliers are to make the NBA Finals for the fourth year in a row, they’ll need James to continue playing at that level. The trades they pulled off at the February deadline surrounded James with players who better play to his strengths , but it made them more dependent on him in his 15th season.
If he can carry the Cavaliers back to the NBA Finals, it will be a huge accomplishment considering the season they've had as a team.
Will the Thunder actually shine in the playoffs?
The Thunder have had their eyes set on the playoffs all season long, and they’re now where they want to be. For a team built around three isolation-heavy scorers in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, they might be better equipped for playoff basketball than regular season basketball. The loss of Andre Roberson limits their ceiling this season — Roberson would’ve been in the conversation to win Defensive Player of the Year had he not gotten injured — but they’re hoping to play spoiler to the Rockets and Warriors in the second and conference finals.
George’s free agency only adds to the intrigue. Suffer an early exit, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him leave in the offseason. Upset a team or two, and it would give him good reason to stick around. They certainly have the star power to make some noise in the playoffs, but they’ve been one of the most confusing teams in the league this season, having had success against the best of the best and some trouble taking care of business against teams below .500 .
The Thunder have a tough first-round matchup with the defensive-minded Jazz as well, a team they beat three out of four times in the regular season, but only once with Ruby Gobert in uniform . How they fare against the Jazz should be a good indicator of what’s to come.
Are the 76ers ready?
The 76ers have had a better season than anyone could’ve expected. Joel Embiid played in 63 games following two seasons on the bench, was named an All-Star for the first time in his career and made an All-NBA impact on both ends of the court. They also got a historic rookie season out of Ben Simmons, picked up the type of veterans who can make a difference in the postseason on the buyout market and got Markelle Fultz back at full health in time for the playoffs.
They’ve also been the NBA’s hottest team over the last month. Even without Embiid, who has been sidelined since March 28 with a fractured orbital bone, they worked their way to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference by winning 16 games in a row to close the season. That included a victory against the Cavaliers, in which Simmons went off for 27 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists. It was one of five triple-doubles Simmons recorded in the final month of the season.
The 76ers are still incredibly young, though. The trio of Simmons, Embiid and Fultz have combined to play in 189 career games, and none of them have played in the playoffs before. They’re talented enough to make it deep in to the playoffs, but history says they’re a year or two away from having the experience needed to compete with the Raptors and Cavaliers at the top of the Eastern Conference.
It will be fascinating to see how far their young talent can lead them in their first postseason run.
Can the Rockets keep going?
Fans of James Harden, Chris Paul and Mike D’Antoni have been in this sort of position before.
For Harden, he led the Rockets to the No. 3 seed last season with an MVP-worthy season, only to fall apart in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Spurs with one of the most confusing individual performances from a superstar in NBA history.
For Paul, he’s never made it past the second round of the playoffs despite being one of the best point guards in NBA history.
For D’Antoni, he’s led a number of teams to the top of the Western Conference with his high-powered offense, only to fall short in the postseason for a variety of reasons.
The Rockets are hoping that this team is different, and it is. Harden is the front-runner to win MVP this season, and he has far more help than he did last season. Paul is still one of the league’s best point guards, but he’s in a situation where he doesn’t have to carry a team offensively each and every night. And D’Antoni has the Rockets scoring at the same rate as the Warriors, but they've also gotten it done defensively with the sixth-best defense in the league .
It gives the Rockets the recipe for success in both the regular season and postseason.
It helps that the Warriors are vulnerable given the injuries to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant they have dealt with. The Rockets are built for future success as well, but this might be their best shot at taking down the Warriors.
