It's OK to absorb a brutal Week 9 loss or injury as long as we pick ourselves off the mat and make moves -- be it on the waiver wire or the trade market -- in our fantasy football leagues.
Philip Rivers is safe in a hiding place. pic.twitter.com/DeSasYH41Y
— Deadspin (@Deadspin) November 10, 2015The Week 10 trade advice column aims to exploit the ebb and flow of an NFL season to find value and sleepers in your fantasy league's market. Running backs are the primary focus this week with Matt Forte, Karlos Williams and Danny Woodhead, but let's start by addressing Sammy Watkins, who's coming off a monster game.
MORE: Week 10's best waiver wire pickups
Sell high on Sammy Watkins
Watkins managed a clearly unsustainable receiving share in Week 9, garnering a 93-percent cut of the Bills' receiving yards -- the highest mark in an NFL game since 1999. Other fantasy owners may focus on the 168-and-a-score outing and Watkins' sheer electricity, not so much that the Bills apparently are just fine throwing only 12 times when they get out to a lead. With Rex Ryan's defense playing to their ridiculous talent level, Buffalo should front-run more often. And, of course, Watkins' unfortunate injury history shouldn't be forgotten.
Trade advice: Sell for solid WR2-equivalent return value.
Despite injury, buy low on Matt Forte
Forte is expected to miss at least another week with an MCL sprain, but his fantasy playoff schedule shapes up quite nicely, with Washington in Week 14 and Tampa in Week 16. Forte won't change teams in real life, as it turns out the Bears are actually decent, so it's up to fantasy owners with surplus assets to stash Forte at a massive discount. Chicago's OL has risen to above average in Pro Football Focus run-block grading and cleared space for 111 yards on 26 carries from Jeremy Langford and crew on Monday night. Forte's return is ripe for fantasy success.
Trade advice: Find the panicked Forte owner on the playoff fringe and low-ball with flex/depth value.
Deal Danny Woodhead in standard leagues
Woodhead enters the bye at RB6 in total points and RB9 average in -- wait for it -- standard scoring. This incredible start has been buoyed by instant 20-plus deficits and fumbles from top pick Melvin Gordon. However, Gordon's snap share is increasing — from under 17 percent Weeks 6-7 to near 50 percent Weeks 8-9 — as San Diego not only wakes up for kickoff but also evaluates their intended lead back. Receiver injuries appear to be shrinking the pie for this entire offense more so than boosting individual fantasy opportunity.
Trade advice: It's tough to part with the high floor in PPR, but shop for borderline WR1s in standard scoring.
Karlos Williams' trade value rising
Just as I want out on the Bills pass offense due to changing game-script projections and tendencies, I want in on this run game. Williams and LeSean McCoy can both eat at the RB2 buffet in most matchups. McCoy's history of nagging injuries (now a shoulder strain) sets up Williams for the lion's share in certain weeks, potentially starting this Thursday against the Jets. Williams will command a premium price coming off the big week, but he could be worth it in this grinding, improving Greg Roman offense.
Trade advice: Willing to pay RB2 value for a decent floor and bonafide RB1 upside.
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