Coming into the season, Trent Richardson was one of the hottest names in the first round of fantasy football drafts. Some of that was because the Cleveland Browns had a new coaching staff that was more reputable than last year. Some of that was because Richardson was the unquestioned No. 1 back and top weapon in Cleveland. And some of it had to do with the dominance Richardson showed a couple of years ago at Alabama.
All together, Richardson’s draft stock rose toward the top half of the first round. In the Experts’ League draft, he went No. 3 overall , ahead of some prominent, more proven guys like Marshawn Lynch , LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice .
So far, things haven’t gone as fantasy owners planned. Through two games, Richardson is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on 31 attempts. He also has seven receptions for 51 yards. To make matters worse, he has yet to find the end zone. Of all the running backs who were projected to have top-10 value, Richardson has shown the least thus far.
One can complain about touches in Week 1 when he only had 15. But in Week 2, Richardson had 23 touches and generated 0.2 more fantasy points than the previous game. Neither of the matchups was easy -- both the Dolphins and Ravens have solid front sevens -- but neither looks dominant in the early going, either, which makes Richardson’s performance very concerning.
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Richardson’s struggles could stem from teams stacking the box against the run. The Browns' passing game has been inept thanks to Brandon Weeden and every Browns pass-catcher not named Jordan Cameron . The return of deep threat Josh Gordon could help spread the field and open up some running lanes for Richardson.
But it's also possible that while Richardson is going to be a workhorse back who piles up yards, he may not be Adrian Peterson , his frequent comp. He may be closer to Eddie George : a guy who carries the ball a ton but rarely ever puts up big yards-per-carry numbers.
Consider that of Richardson’s first 17 games in the NFL, he’s averaged better than 4.0 yards per carry just five times. He’s never had a game where he’s averaged more than 5.9 YPC. Meanwhile, he’s averaged less than 3.0 YPC seven times.
For comparison’s sake, Marshawn Lynch had 13 games last season where he averaged more than 4.0 YPC, and three where he was over 6.0 YPC. Matt Forte had 10 games over 4.0 YPC in 2012. Meanwhile, Shonn Greene , who couldn’t find anything more than a backup role this season, also managed 4.0 YPC five times in ’12.
That doesn’t mean Richardson is Greene or that he can’t start improving on a game-by-game basis. But so far the returns on Richardson have not been good.
The good news for Richardson owners is that he isn’t going to start splitting carries. So long as he’s healthy, he’s going to be the lead back. He’ll get yards and he will eventually find the end zone. After all, he did score 12 touchdowns for a bad offense last year. Just be aware that Richardson’s ceiling may not be quite as high as previously thought.
With his considerably high floor, though, owners are best served waiting this out and hoping that Richardson’s potential is realized soon. In the meantime, you may not have a clear-cut, top-five pick, but you should have a solid, every-week fantasy contributor.