Perhaps no running back is creating more questions around fantasy football drafts this year than Texans star Arian Foster. Foster's groin injury in early August caused chaos on draft boards everywhere, creating a number of questions to answer.
Once a sure thing to be selected in the first two rounds, Foster's ADP is dropping rapidly. What's Foster's fantasy value? Here's the latest injury update for you to take into your draft.
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When will Arian Foster return to the Texans?
There seems to be growing optimism about a (relatively) speedy recovery for Foster, who appeared headed for I.R./designated to return after having groin surgery on Aug. 5. Despite an initial 3-6 month timetable, there are reports that Foster could be back in under three months, perhaps missing only 2-4 weeks of the regular season.
That's a best-case scenario, however, and as experienced fantasy owners know, there's rarely a "best-case scenario" when it comes to a Foster injury. Let's not forget that the surgery was to attach Foster's GROIN back onto the BONE.
Foster was originally expected to be out at least through October (seven games). Even if he beats that timetable, it likely won't be by much. It's also important to note that the Texans have a Week 9 bye, which could be a factor in the team's timetable for Foster's return. That would make a Week 10 return the most likely scenario.
Which Texans running back replaces Arian Foster?
Alfred Blue is expected to lead the Texans backfield in the meantime, with Chris Polk off the bench behind him. Blue is worth a mid-round pick, and Polk could be a late-round flier just in case Blue, who averaged just 3.1 yards per carry last year, doesn't work out. Jonathan Grimes and Kenny Hilliard are also in the mix, but off the fantasy radar for now.
Arian Foster Fantasy Outlook
Even before the torn groin, Foster was labeled injury-prone and represented one of the biggest high-risk, high-reward picks in fantasy football drafts. Now expected to miss anywhere from 3-8 games, he's plummeted down draft boards. So, is Foster suddenly looking like an attractive bargain in the middle rounds?
That depends whether you believe the glowing reports about his recovery. If Foster is out until Week 10, he's missed roughly 70 percent of most fantasy regular seasons (13 weeks) -- and there's no guarantee he's 100 percent or nearly as explosive as he was before the groin injury.
Having Foster possibly eat up a bench spot for nine weeks (or more) is not an attractive option. Even if you're totally risk-averse early in your draft, you have no idea what other injuries or headaches you'll have to deal with through the first two-plus months of the season. Why guarantee yourself another headache (and use a valuable draft pick) on Foster?