Most of us are concerned with our hourly wage, but in NBA DFS we focus on minutes played to bring home the cash.
If time equals money in the real world, minutes equal money in Daily Fantasy Basketball. Specifically, we are targeting players with an expected increase in their playing time or usage, as this should present a discounted price tag relative to projected performance.
Minutes played in NBA DFS are similar to targets and touches in NFL DFS. If your wide receiver is getting targets and your running back is receiving touches, you should feel confident in the potential outcomes.
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With basketball, you should be focused on the player's average points per minute, and capitalizing on situations where minutes can be maximized. Whether it's an injury, illness or suspected close game without a blowout risk, just a few extra minutes on the court can be the difference in your player hitting value instead of falling short.
Targeting a roughly 6x return on each player’s salary should be the building block for your cash games on DraftKings, with a higher multiple needed to take down a guaranteed prize pool (GPP), or large-field tournament. For example, if Russell Westbrook costs $10,000, you should be expecting roughly 60 fantasy points to consider him worth the price.
You don't need a complex spreadsheet during roster construction, rather use simple multiplication and ask yourself if the player under consideration has a good chance at reaching your desired multiple. A 6x return on your $50,000 salary cap will yield roughly 300 points, which is a score that has a great chance to cash in your 50/50 games.
However, the threshold to cash your double-ups will change every night, therefore you must decide what strategy is best for a particular night. It is acceptable to target a lower multiple for superstars, while expecting more from your less expensive "value" plays.
If you believe a certain position is thin, a good strategy can be to pay up for the expensive options to theoretically secure “safe” points from a seemingly unstable position. This is the "art" of DFS, and one aspect where expert articles help the least, but I can assure you that time and experience will help you see the matrix more clearly.
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Regardless if you aim to build a balanced lineup or pair stars with scrubs, one constant is mining the player pool for value. You should be licking your chops when low-priced backups are scheduled for heavier minutes than normal, as they allow us to roster more studs like LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
Each day, we're looking for reliable bench players in expanded roles, or current starters who will be expected to play more minutes -- or at least take on more scoring responsibility. Although, keep in mind we don't have to hope for an injury when searching for value to afford our stars. At its core, DFS is about recognizing undervalued options and surrounding them with preferred plays. Comparing projected minutes with average fantasy points per minute is a great tool to help you find value and build winning lineups for your NBA action.
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Sporting News contributor maddox2 has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for two years and was a finalist in the 2015 Playboy Basketball Championship. When not tending to his full-time job in Finance, he's grinding DFS all year long in the three major sports. Follow him @maddox2DFS on Twitter.