Before I focused my attention toward Daily Fantasy Sports, I used a fairly simple, yet rarely discussed, strategy to dominate my season-long fantasy basketball league to the tune of five championships in a row.
DFS NBA Strategy: Minutes = money
I love fantasy basketball the most because using the following tactics will give you a mathematical edge by exploiting the schedule, which we cannot do in any other (major) fantasy sport. The scheduling of the NBA fantasy playoff season allows you to use this strategy to roster more players than your opponent and beat a team that is "better" than yours. It takes a little time and effort analyzing the schedule, but lucky for you I've done all hard work to help you take down the title.
Disclaimer: This strategy is focused on head-to head leagues that allow add/drops and especially useful if your league caps the weekly adds. (My home league has a weekly max of 5 add/drops)
It's obvious you want your lineups to be as full as possible each and every day, and the only way to do this is to stay ahead of schedule, figuratively and literally. This brings me to the three most important rules of playoff fantasy basketball:
1. The most crucial aspect when adding a player is the team they play for, not their talent level. Each week there are two-to-three days when just a few games are played, and finding players in action on more than one of those days is gold. Don't just look for teams playing four games a week -- hone in on teams playing during thin schedules. The list below will provide all the best teams to target and some of the potentially available players.
2. You must stay ahead of your opponent, scooping up the coveted free agents in advance so they cannot. Wednesday and Friday provide large slates, meaning you should be adding players for the always-thin Thursday after roster lock on Tuesday. Most owners will wait until the morning of the game because websites make it easier to sort the free agent pool and see who is playing, but the early bird gets the victory. The same applies after roster lock on Thursday -- you must quickly add the most coveted players for the weekend. You will likely bench players on Wednesday & Friday so there is no reason to hang onto them. Make your adds two days in advance!
3. Do not be afraid to drop anyone that IS NOT a keeper, real-life star player who isn't injured, or has one of the preferable schedules listed below. This is March -- survive and advance is the only objective, and if we have to cut ties with some of our favorite names, so be it. A great example is the Orlando Magic, who is the only team to play just two games during the week of March 23rd. Making matters worse, the Magic play their two games on Wednesday and Friday during large slates. Owners of Victor Oladipo & Nikola Vucevic obviously can't contemplate dropping their studs, but I doubt either name is on too many championship teams due simply to scheduling. As much as it would hurt, I wouldn't fault an owner for dropping Tobias Harris or Elfrid Payton. I'd rather be floating on a decent looking life raft than go down with a good-looking yacht.
Each week is its own animal, so we'll segment our recommendations based on the three most popular weeks for fantasy playoffs, the weeks of March 16, 23, & 30.
WEEK OF MARCH 16th:
So, I'm a couple days late getting this article out and I missed out on the opportunity to tell you to grab as many Houston Rockets as possible before their game on Tuesday night. Fortunately, the advice still applies, as the only remaining thin days are Thursday and Saturday, and the Rockets play both nights. By adding three Houston players for Thursday and holding them thru Saturday, you will get six games for the price of three adds. By strategically adding players from the correct teams, you will be able to roster more player minutes than your opponent, all while using the same limited number of transactions.
Small slate days to plan for: Tuesday, Thursday, & Saturday
Teams to target: Houston Rockets (favorite target playing all 3 thin nights), Phoenix Suns, & Utah Jazz
Players potentially available include:
Houston: D. Motiejunas, C. Brewer, P. Beverly
Utah: How is Rudy Gobert only 72 percent owned in Yahoo? If he's available in your league please add him immediately and then find a new and competitive league to join next year. Realistic targets include R. Hood & T. Burke.
Phoenix: Plenty of targets here, as the Suns play up in pace and have a large rotation. Target PJ Tucker, Marcus Morris, and whomever is starting between Brandan Wright or Alex Len.
Teams to avoid and drop players: None. Every NBA team plays at least three games this week, which is rare and only due to extended All-Star Break.
WEEK OF MARCH 23rd:
Monday and Tuesday bring us a balanced schedule, with the lone exception being the Golden State Warriors playing both nights. Just one game Thursday should have your eyes on Milwaukee and Indiana players, though with Milwaukee playing on Tuesday they are my preferred grab as a Tues./Thurs/Sat. combo. The Warriors also play on a Saturday evening with just five games on tap, making Golden State the other top target for the week of March 23.
Small slate days: Monday and Tuesday are smaller, but six games each is not bad. Thursday, & Saturday are thin days.
Teams to target: Golden State & Milwaukee
Players potentially available include:
Golden State: H. Barnes, S. Livingston, A. Iguodala, D. Lee
Milwaukee: Not much to offer unfortunately -- E. Ilyasova, J. Henson, K. Middleton. (Although if Middleton is on the waiver wire, please see above advice for Rudy Gobert)
Teams to avoid: As previously mentioned, Orlando plays just two days, and those days provide that largest amount of games for the week. Given opportunity cost, its much better to own Khris Middleton than Victor Oladipo or Nikola Vucevic during this week.
WEEK OF MARCH 30th:
For most of us this is championship week, the most important week of all. Atlanta is the first to catch our eye, playing on Monday and a four-game Tuesday. Golden State is the only team to play on both Tuesday and Thursday and also plays on Sunday. This revelation makes the Golden State Warriors the absolute top target for the week of March 23, as you can hopefully hold those players for both weeks.
Small slate days: Tuesday & Thursday -- Monday and Sunday have seven games, which will likely require adds for a full roster, but not a small slate.
Teams to target: Golden State (far and away top target), Atlanta Hawks (playing Monday and Tuesday)
Players potentially available include:
Golden State: H. Barnes, S. Livingston, A. Iguodala, D. Lee
Atlanta: D. Schroder, K. Bazemore, or D. Carroll if available.
Team to avoid: I pity the LeBron owners because the Cavaliers have just two games this week and don't play their first contest until Thursday! The good news is both games come during shorter slates, making the Cavs slightly more valuable than the Magic from the previous week. I would consider anyone not named LeBron or Kyrie droppable in redraft leagues. I'm not saying to drop Kevin Love prior to this week, but I think it's a viable strategy.
If your playoffs extend further, use this link as a way to expedite your research. Going a step further, take a look at this grid before you draft for next season. I do not let the schedule greatly influence my decision on which stars to draft; however I will use it as a tiebreaker if I'm torn between a couple of players on draft night.
Given the above data, I shouldn't need to tell you that the fantasy teams with Steph Curry or Klay Thompson should be much better off than those who own LeBron, Kyrie, Oladipo, or Vucevic. However, the good news is by using the above tools to slant the schedule in your favor, you will undoubtedly have an edge on your opponents during the postseason. Good luck to all, and send me a note on Twitter (@Maddox2DFS) if you use this advice to win your league -- nothing would make me happier!