Every year, no matter my position in a fantasy baseball snake draft (this year it was fourth overall), I follow the same general philosophy. I will stockpile hitters in the early rounds and then move on to young, high-strikeout pitchers in the middle-to-late rounds. In the past, that might mean taking a couple of pitchers before the 10th round.
This season, I went extreme, even drafting relievers in the eighth and ninth rounds before I took my first starting pitcher in Round 10. I had a ton of success finding pitchers last year, though I also happened to hit it big with two of my first three SPs, Max Scherzer and Matt Harvey, while dealing the third guy, Matt Moore, around midseason at the peak of his value.
I doubt I can even come close to that level of success this year. Still, offense is always harder to come by than pitching in the SN Experts' League. Even if it doesn’t work out, focusing on bats early feels like the right way to go.
1. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates (No.4). It was Paul Goldschmidt or McCutchen here, and I somewhat foolishly talked SN’s Director of Technology John Branca into taking the former at No.3 -- Not that McCutchen is a bad consolation prize, especially since that 1B worked out for me later on anyway.
2. Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays (21). I planned to go with either Jason Kipnis, David Wright or Longoria here. As it turned out, Longo was the only one left, making this an easy choice.
3. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays (28). Was torn between Carlos Gomez and Bautista, but I decided to buy the guy coming off a somewhat down year rather than the guy off a career one. I suspect both will struggle to hit for average, but Bautista’s power is too tantalizing to pass up, especially since steals guys were available later.
4. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers (45). I resolved at the end of the third round that if Kemp got to me in the fourth, I was taking him. His injury concerns are real, but in a redraft league, at some point value trumps risk factors. Kemp won’t be ready for Australia, but he could be for opening day in the states. Even if he isn’t, we’re probably talking a two-to-three-week delay in his season. For a guy who was a first-round talent last year, it was time to roll the dice.
5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Dodgers (52). I was torn between boring-but-consistent production in a good lineup with Gonzo or potential for five categories of contribution with Eric Hosmer. I went boring, and I don’t regret it at all.
6. Joe Mauer, C, Twins (69). I resolved to hold off taking a catcher early, but Mauer proved too tempting. He’s one of the most reliable batting average options out there, and since we have dailyi waivers instead of free agency, the fact Mauer isn’t catching anymore is a huge plus for my catcher slot. I suspected and later confirmed that Matt Lutovsky would have taken him two picks later had I passed.
7. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Royals (76). The reason I don’t regret taking Gonzalez. It’s always nice to snatch a guy you were considering two rounds before.
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8. Jonathan Papelbon, RP, Phillies (93). The luster is off Papelbon because he didn’t produce an elite strikeout rate last year, but he also dropped his walk rate to just 1.61/9. Another bonus is his real-life contract. It’s onerous enough the Phillies will be hard pressed to unload it, making him relatively safe as a closer for this season.
9. Glen Perkins, RP, Twins (100). Perkins has been an awesome reliever for three straight seasons, striking out a batter per inning and delivering solid control. Closers were flying off the board here, so I wanted a solid two. I got another boost after the fact, as Perkins signed an extension with the Twins. That should lock him in Minnesota for at least this seaosn.
10. Michael Wacha, SP, Cardinals (117). I wasn’t high on Wacha’s ability to deliver strikeouts at the major league level upon his promotion last year. I was very wrong, evidenced by both his 9.05 K/9 and his 11.3 swinging strike percentage. Those are both elite. There’s no guarantee he keeps it up as a starter, but if I’m going to bet on a pitcher, I want it to be someone who has shown top-tier strikeout abilities.
11. Tony Cingrani, SP, Reds (124). See above. Cingrani struck out 28.6 percent of the batters he faced last year. Interestingly, though, his swinging-strike percentage was just 9.9, so even if his K-rate comes down a little, he has some room to spare.
12. Bobby Parnell, RP, Mets (141). We got into the weeds with closers quickly. I was stuck between Parnell and Nate Jones. I fear closers with control problems ever since I got burned by John Axford a few years back, so I went with Parnell.
13. J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles (148). This is a pick I slightly regret -- not because Hardy is a bad shortstop option, but because my other choice, second baseman Chase Utley, went soon afterwards. Second base has a dearth of talent that can deliver plus numbers in either power or steals. Depending on how you feel about Jhonny Peralta, Hardy was the last power threat, but a few other players could have been solid steals guys.
14. Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees (165). Speaking of solid steals guys. Gardner’s steals dropped to 24 last season, but he also hit eight home runs. I hope he gets to 30 steals again, but he seems about as safe as you can get when it comes to mid-to-late round SB options.
15. Chase Headley, 3B, Padres (172). In all honesty, I had Jeff Samardzija queued up. When Branca took him, I was left scrambling. Headley was the best name on the screen when the timer went under 10 seconds. Hope my poor planning pays off!
16. Alexei Ramirez, SS, White Sox (189). Ramirez used to be a guy who had a bit of pop and a bit of speed. The last two years, he’s had little pop but swiped 50 bases. He’s not exciting, but I’ll take 20 stolen base potential out of my middle infield spot.
17. Chris Carter, 1B/OF, Astros (196). Carter is on my team for power. That’s about it. I have no hopes for him hitting for average with a strikeout percentage over 36 percent. I just want 30 homers and 85 RBI. Is that too much to ask?
18. Alex Wood, SP, Braves (213). The curse that has struck the Braves rotation hasn’t hit Wood (yet) and looks to have given him a spot in the rotation. His strikeout numbers were solid at Double-A and continued into the majors. Besides, my preferred pitcher at this spot, Tyson Ross, went at the start of this round.
19. Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates (220). You ever have a pick you don't want to make, but you know you have to do it? That was me with Neil Walker. I was hoping to add Dan Uggla as cover later, but I failed. Yes, that is how bad my second base situation is.
20. Zack Wheeler, SP, Mets (237). While I’m not overly high on Wheeler, he was a top prospect who had decent success in his big-league debut last year. In the 20th round, it’s worth gambling on some upside.
21. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Nationals (244). LaRoche has alternated good year and bad ones for last four years, so I am hoping this is a good one. He’s just 20-home-run power for my utility spot.
22. Peter Bourjos, OF, Cardinals (261). Bourjos stole 22 bases and hit 12 homers in ’11. That was also the last time he was healthy for a full year. I am banking on him scoring a lot of runs at the top of the Cardinals lineup and giving me a little push in steals.
23. Danny Farquhar, RP, Mariners (268). Fun fact -- did you know the pitcher who has started the season as Seattle's closer has finished it in that role once over the past four years? Good luck, Fernando Rodney!
24. Matt Davidson, 3B, White Sox (285). Davidson slugged 23 homers in 135 games at Double-A in ’12 and then 17 in 115 games at Triple-A last year. He got squeezed out in Arizona, but he should get a chance to play every day in Chicago.
25. Ivan Nova, SP, Yankees (292). Nova’s an okay pitcher whose numbers indicate he could be even better. His swinging-strike percentage was 9.3 last year, after being 9.0 the season before. He can generate swings-and-misses and ground balls, at the very least. That’s a good baseline for success.
26. Josh Willingham, OF, Twins (309). Willingham is a year removed from slugging 35 home runs. I don’t think that will happen again, but 20-25 isn’t crazy, provided he can stay relatively healthy.
27. Tyler Clippard, RP, Nationals (316). I like high-K setup men to help at the margins with ERA, WHIP and of course strikeouts. That’s part of the reason I took Farquhar earlier. And Clippard could always see time as closer if Rafael Soriano melts down.
28. Junichi Tazawa, RP, Red Sox (333). Tazawa has a nice K-rate and Koji Uehara will be 39 on opening day. Still,Tazawa might be off my team in the near future.