The Oakland A’s performance last season came as far less of a shock than it was the year before, when the Athletics stormed from the bottom of the AL West to steal the division crown. But that shouldn’t make the small-market team's second straight first-place finish any less remarkable. Part of that success was because of the team's strong starting pitching.
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All five of the Oakland starters last season who threw 100 innings had ERAs below their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), indicating some good luck. Four of the five had numbers well below their xFIP, which normalizes home run rates.
A closer look at the numbers shows some interesting trends:
- Not only did all five starters post BABIPs below .300, three of the five -- Dan Straily, A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker -- had BABIPs well below the norm.
- Not coincidentally, all five starters qualify as fly-ball pitchers.
- All five also posted strand rates higher then 70 percent.
- All five starters had solid control, with four of the five posting walk rates below 3.00 BB/9.
So, was it just a fluky coincidence where five guys on one team all outpitched their peripherals? Or was there something else at play?
Baseball fans and fantasy veterans know the A’s home park of O.co Coliseum is an excellent pitcher’s park. Statcorner.com ranked it as a power-killer for lefthanded hitters and it's not friendly to righthanders, either.
Another factor for at least the lower BABIPs -- generally, fly balls turn into hits less often than ground balls. It’s not crazy that a fly-ball pitcher could see a lower BABIP, especially in a large park with a lot of foul ground. In fact, since 2011, the only A's pitcher who has thrown 100 innings and had an xFIP significantly lower than his ERA was Trevor Cahill, a ground-ball pitcher that season. It seems that the A's starters were specifically selected for the team's ballpark and defensive philosophy.
Last year, Straily, Griffin, Bartolo Colon and Tommy Milone all had higher ERAs on the road, though Colon’s difference was relatively small. Parker’s ERA on the road was far better, but he also surrendered far more home runs on the road, suggesting his home ERA might have been much worse if not for the friendly dimensions.
Does that mean the A’s fly-ball pitchers should be expected to outproduce their peripherals on a consistent basis? It’s tough to draw conclusions based on the sample, since it isn't particuarly large. But there may well be something to it, specifically for righties facing righthanded hitters.
That's good news for Parker, Griffin and Straily. It also gives Sonny Gray a little leeway if his strikeout rate drops from the batter-per-inning rate he posted last season. Overall, strongly bump the A's pitchers up for home starts, but be careful when starting them in difficult road environments.