This is the latest preview in a series examining the 2014 fantasy baseball outlook of each major league team. Today, a look at the Milwaukee Brewers. For every MLB team preview along with player rankings, stat projections, dollar values and more, join Fantasy Source Baseball!
WHAT'S NEW
Expected to compete in 2013, the Milwaukee Brewers instead were a total disappointment. Suspect pitching, injuries and a very notable Ryan Braun suspension did them in.
But outside of Braun’s return, the Brewers will start ‘14 very similar to how they finished last season. On offense, the changes are marginal -- a potential platoon at first base between Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay and Juan Francisco, and Khris Davis, who displayed power in his limited time last year, takes over for the traded Norichika Aoki in the outfield. Milwaukee's rotation did get a big potential boost in free-agent signing Matt Garza, but the rest of the staff will stay largely the same.
The good news for fantasy owners is that even a Brewers team without many reinforcements is still one that has plenty of fantasy potential. They play in a very hitter-friendly ballpark, have multiple power/speed threats, and offer solid options at scarce positions. And despite the difficult pitching environment, the Brewers have a few high-strikeout options than can contribute in just about any fantasy format.
The real-life results may not be a whole lot better than last year, but fantasy owners don’t need to worry about it. The Brewers have options that can help you in the early, middle and late rounds of your draft.
Key additions: SP Matt Garza, 1B Mark Reynolds, 1B Lyle Overbay.
Key subtractions: OF Norichika Aoki, 1B/SS Yuniesky Betancourt, SP Chris Narveson.
Contract-year players: RP Tom Gorzelanny.
Brewers team page | Stat Projections | Auction Values
BURNING QUESTION
What should we do with Ryan Braun?
Before the 2013 season, Ryan Braun was a guy in the mix to be the first player selected in fantasy drafts. But after a thumb injury limited his games and production and a suspension for performance-enhancing drug use wiped out the rest of his season, the opinions on him are wide ranging. Some would still spend a later first-round pick on him; others would not draft him at all. Just look at our February mock draft, where Braun went No. 8. In our prior mock, he went No. 21.
The Biogenesis boys are an interesting bunch. Most received their punishments last year, but since the facility had been shut down prior to last season, it’s hard to say whether any of them were actually using their supplements during the ‘13 campaign. While that’s a plus for someone like Everth Cabrera, who broke out last season, it’s actually a bit of a red flag for Braun.
He did bat .298, yet Braun managed just nine home runs and four stolen bases last season in 61 games. Even if you extrapolate that over a full season, Braun’s stats come in at around 23 home runs and 10 steals. That’s not top-of-the-draft value.
Was that because he was off his PEDs? Was that just a down year -- they do happen, even to the great players -- that Braun can bounce back from? Did the looming Biogenesis mess weigh down on him? Was it just a bad stretch that over 150 games would have evened out with a hot streak? Or was it just bad luck with his thumb injury.
Obviously, there's no clear-cut answer. Braun’s no longer a top-five player on draft day, but you’re also not dealing with any perfect players after the top two anyway. It depends your comfort level. If you truly believe that Braun’s elite production was PED-fueled, then you should drop him. If you don’t, then taking him toward the end of the first round is the move to make.
But if Braun is sitting there in the back half of the second round, he could score you some nice value.
Projected Lineup: 1. Jean Segura, SS; 2. Scooter Gennett, 2B; 3. Ryan Braun, RF; 4. Aramis Ramirez, 3B; 5. Jonathan Lucroy, C; 6. Carlos Gomez, CF; 7. Juan Francisco, 1B; 8. Khris Davis, LF.
Lineup Analysis: The Brewers lineup looked to be almost eight deep last year. It’s not quite as strong this year, but five of the six players are locks to be drafted in all leagues and two others are sleeper candidates.
There’s reason to be excited for Jean Segura’s run totals this year as he, at least in theory, has a full season of Braun batting behind him. Carlos Gomez is in an interesting spot, as he’s the last of the proven run producers in the sixth spot, but he should have the green light to run whenever he wants. Of course, days of rest for Braun and Aramis Ramirez, combined with the fact Jonathan Lucroy is a catcher, means Gomez will see plenty of games where he’s up higher in the order.
Speaking of Ramirez and Lucroy, they are in prime positions for success. Ramirez batted .283 with 12 homers, 43 runs and 49 RBI in just 92 games. If he can stay healthy – a big "if" given he’s 35, he would provide real value at third base. Lucroy has provided excellent catcher production, chipping in with 12 homers and four steals in 96 games in ‘12 and 18 homers and nine steals in 147 games last season. Those steals are especially valuable. Lucroy’s could easily float under the radar in some drafts while being a top-five catcher in others.
Position Battle: The battle to watch is at second base, where Scooter Gennett is trying to hold the job he won last season over Rickie Weeks. Gennett flashed little power and only marginal speed in the minors, but he hit six homers and stole two bases in 69 games in the majors last year. If he pans out, he could be a contributor in average and runs in deep mixed leagues. Weeks would be more interesting, as he hit 20 homers in three straight seasons before ‘13. But he’ll have to win his job back, and given how poorly he performed last year (.209 average, 10 homers, seven steals in 104 games), that may not happen out of the gate.
The first base situation may result in a platoon. The Brewers signed right-handed slugger Mark Reynolds to a minor-league deal to compete with the left-handed Juan Francisco. Francisco hit 18 homers, all against righties, in ’13. Neither will contribute average, but if the platoon does shake out, they could be of use as spot pickups in daily league. Lyle Overbay, who is also in the mix and managed just 14 homers and a .242 average last year, can be safely ignored in daily leagues.
Sleeper: At Triple-A in 2013, Khris Davis only batted .255. But he hit 13 homers in 69 games and then followed it up by slugging 11 homers in just 56 games for the Brewers. He also stole nine bases between the majors and minors. The average has never been consistent for Davis, but he is an intriguing late-round power sleeper with a little bit of speed.
If Weeks can get his job back, it would suggest that he's playing better than he did last year. That means he could provide a cheap source of power at a scarce middle infield position. He’s probably not worth investing in on draft day unless he wins the job outright, but he's a guy to keep an eye on.
Projected Rotation: 1. Yovani Gallardo, RHP; 2. Matt Garza, RHP; 3. Kyle Lohse, RHP, 4. Marco Estrada, RHP; 5. Wily Peralta, RHP. Also in the mix: Tyler Thornburg, RHP; Johnny Hellweg, RHP.
Projected Bullpen: Closer: Jim Henderson, RHP; Next-in-line: Francisco Rodriguez, RHP.
Staff Analysis: You’re not going to find any fantasy aces in Milwaukee. The nominal No. 1, Yovani Gallardo, has suffered through declining peripherals for years. His ERA ballooned to over 4.00 for the first time in his career last season. Kyle Lohse posts solid ERAs, but he has never contributed the strikeouts fantasy owners need. Wily Peralta has an impressive ground-ball rate, yet has struggled to get results.
But it’s not all barren. Matt Garza should have a bit more success with his return to the National League, even if Miller Park is one of the few parks more unfriendly than Globe Life Park in Arlington. He’s always had good strikeout numbers, so if his ERA comes down, he’ll be a consistent mixed-league option. And while Marco Estrada frustrated owners with his slow start last year (5.12 first-half ERA), he was excellent in the second half of the season (2.15 ERA) and posted strong strikeout and walk numbers.
In the 'pen, 31-year-old Jim Henderson is the unquestioned closer on day one. He’s a high strikeout guy who has been prone to control problems in the past, giving him a profile a bit similar to the man he replaced, John Axford. Still, the strikeout rate is tantalizing for a closer, and he will be one of the cheaper options available on draft day. Should he falter, former closer Francisco Rodriguez would likely step into the role.
Position Battle: The back of the rotation is still up in the air. Estrada and Peralta looks to be the early favorites with competition from Johnny Hellweg and Tyler Thornburg. Estrada would be the most fantasy useful right away. Peralta has had solid strikeout numbers in the minors, though it didn’t translate immediately to the majors. Thornburg had 2.03 ERA last year, with a 1.47 mark in seven starts. However, he gives up a decent number of fly balls in an unforgiving park and probably needs to miss more bats to be successful. Hellweg was atrocious in the bigs last year, posting a 6.75 ERA and a 9:26 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings (no, that’s not a misprint -- he walked nearly three batters for every one strikeout). He also threw four wild pitches and hit eight batters. Consider Hellweg a real-life “Wild Thing” Rick Vaughn at this point, minus the glasses. Don’t trust him, even if he wins the job.
Sleeper: Wily Peralta posted strikeout rates in the mid-8.00’s at both Double-A and Triple-A. With excellent ground-ball rates in the bigs, he could be a real gem if he can approach those minor league K-rates. Control was an issue for him, but he did fare better with his walks in the second half of ‘13.
Thornburg’s strikeout rate in 74.2 Triple-A innings was 10.49, which is far better than his 6.48 mark in the bigs. He’s unlikely to approach that number this season, but it suggests he is capable of getting his K-rate up to around 8.00.
TO-KNOW LIST
MEDICAL REPORT: Aramis Ramirez struggled with a knee injury last season. That isn’t an issue at the moment, though he is missing a bit of the spring after having a polyp removed from his colon. Ramirez is expected to be fine for the regular season. … Garza has a screw in his pitching elbow, and the Brewers put medical clauses into his contract. It’s not a reason to take Garza off your draft board, as he’s pitched through it for years. But he also hasn’t thrown close to 200 innings the last two seasons either, so owners should factor that into their evaluations of him.
PROSPECT WATCH: This isn’t a farm system with prospects that are going to excite most fantasy owners. … The Brewers have a few pitchers who could be in the mix later in the year if they can figure out their issues. Jimmy Nelson has been able to strike out a batter per inning in Double-A and Triple-A. Unfortunately his walk rate skyrocketed to 5.40/9 at the latter. He’ll need to be better to earn a promotion to the bigs. … Taylor Jungmann and David Goforth didn’t set the world on fire at Double-A last year and would need a major strikeout improvement to be useful fantasy options. … On the offensive front, Hunter Morris is a first baseman who hit 24 homers at Triple-A last year. But a .247 average and .310 OBP seem to have kept him out of the mix in the majors for the time being. … Another first baseman, Jason Rogers, hit 22 homers at Double-A and looks to have better contact abilities than Morris. If he can keep it going at Triple-A, he could be a mid-season option.
SABR SECTION: Segura struggled in the second half after a blazing first half. That had to do with a slight increase in his strikeout rate and a large decrease in his BABIP. Nothing in his overall numbers look out of whack though. His strikeout rate is solid and his BABIP reasonable. Overall, he’s a good bet to get near 40 steals and hit 10 homers again, numbers he approached in 94 games at Double-A in ‘12. … Gomez’s walk rate isn’t pretty, and his strikeout rate is high. That means he’s not a good bet to hit .280 again. But the power and speed are real, as his homer rates have been consistent the past two years. Think B.J. Upton production before Upton fell off a cliff. … Gallardo’s strikeout rate declined from around a batter per inning in ‘09-'12 to 7.17/9 last year. With a ground-ball rate near 50 percent, that’s still good enough to be an effective real-life pitcher, but for Gallardo to be a quality fantasy option again, he’ll need to get that K-rate up to around 8.00 again.
POSITION ELIGIBILITY: Jonathan Lucroy played 14 games at first base last year. It’s unlikely you’d want to use him at first instead of catcher, but the extra eligibility could be useful in helping you make up first base or catcher games in daily leagues. … Juan Francisco gained first base eligibility last year and retains his third baseman status, as well. … For those of you who play specific outfield positions, Ryan Braun will be moving to right field this season.
BALLPARK EFFECT: Miller Park is one of the best ballparks out there for power hitters. It ranked seventh in our Ballpark Power Index and has a home run factor of 127 for lefties and 134 for righties according to statcorner.com. It’s certainly a reason to like any Brewers power hitter, especially in daily leagues where their matchups at home can be exploited. The pitchers are always at risk for blowups due to the long ball, with fly-ball pitchers being especially vulnerable (see poor Mike Fiers and his 25.8 percent HR/FB rate in ‘13). Keep that in mind with Estrada, a heavy fly-ball pitcher, and Garza, who hasn’t pitched there yet.
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