The Dodgers' second base competition is one that has been worthy of fantasy baseball owners’ interest. On one hand there is speedster Dee Gordon; on the other is Cuban import Alexander Guerrero, an unknown to most fantasy owners.
So far this spring, Guerrero has gone 6-for-24 (.250) with a home run and six RBIs. Meanwhile, Gordon has gone 3-for-24 (.206) with two triples and a whopping eight stolen bases.
Of course, stolen bases are only possible when a guy gets on base, and so far Gordon hasn’t shown himself to be any better at that this spring than he was last season. Still, Dodgers.com’s Ken Gurnick says the team looks to have made up its mind.
Dee Gordon seems to be the primary 2B. He's teamed with starting SS Hanley Ramirez in lineup, while Alex Guerrero is in intrasquad game.
— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) March 10, 2014
Dee Gordon is on the travel list tomorrow and Alex Guerrero is not, further evidence that Gordon is winning the competition at second base.
— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) March 10, 2014With that, fantasy owners need to drop Guerrero down on their draft boards while elevating Gordon. No, he’s not Billy Hamilton. But Gordon might be the second-best SB guy in the majors. Gordon swiped 59 bases in 130 games last season, though 92 of those were in the minors. He also stole 32 bases in just 87 games in 2012.
A guy with this much speed is typically undervalued in fantasy drafts. Bill Bender’s designation of late-round sleeper status still applies. It’s very risky to rate him much better than that.
MORE FANTASY BASEBALL: Medlen injury | Cardinals preview | Join Fantasy Source
The problem for Gordon is that he’s likely not a better hitter than Guerrero. He's always struck out a bit too much for a guy who doesn't hit for power, and he needs to raise his BABIP subtantially (i.e. hit more line drives) to be a good average guy. Short of that, he's unlikely to provide the offense the Dodgers want.
Will his defense make up for that? At shortstop, Gordon's defensive metrics have ranged from mediocre to poor. Though second base is easier, if Gordon doesn’t hit and Guerrero does in the minors, how long can Gordon stay at second? For what it's worth, Guererro's defense isn't great either.
With that in mind, be careful about drafting Gordon and thinking that he’s the long-term answer. Draft him as you would a closer whom you feel is on shaky ground. You’re looking to bank steals while also on the lookout for alternatives as they appear during the season. And if Gordon somehow sticks in the linup for the whole year, consider it a huge bonus.
As for Guerrero, starting in the minors may not be a bad thing. We can see how the Cuban defector looks at Triple-A and wait until you see how he does before investing. Unfortunately for owners who already have spent a decent amount on him, they're going to have to hold Guerrero until he comes up.