Given how good of a season Shelby Miller had in 2013, it's easy to forget that this time last year he wasn't getting drafted in a lot of fantasy leagues. He fell despite having dominant minor league strikeout numbers for two reasons.
The first is because he had a 4.74 ERA at Triple-A in 2012. The second is because he was not guaranteed a rotation spot out of spring training, which, of course, was tied to the first reason. Those who gambled on his talent, including the Cardinals themselves, were rewarded.
This year there are other young guns who find themselves locked into a battle for a spot in their team’s rotation. Because a starting spot is not assured, or even unlikely in some cases, these pitchers might be had at a cheaper price in the late rounds of your draft.
Like Miller last season, there’s questions about both their role and immediate contributions. Any of these guys could end up wasted picks as, say, Trevor Bauer was last season. But grabbing a few of these unproven arms with upside is a nice way to potentially snag some quality pitching depth on the cheap.
Michael Pineda, Yankees. The Yankees have been waiting for two years to see their haul from the Jesus Montero deal. Coming back from shoulder surgery is always scary for a pitcher, but Pineda struck out 26 in 23 innings at Triple-A last season. He’s also throwing low-90s this spring. Competing with David Phelps, Pineda is the favorite for the No. 5 spot. Even in a difficult ballpark, he has a tantalizing, live arm. Of all the guys on this list, he’s the pitcher I’d reach the furthest for. Perhaps not coincidentally, he’s the only one on here with sustained big league success, even if it was a serious shoulder operation ago.
James Paxton, Mariners. Paxton started off his minor league career missing bats and posted dominant strikeout numbers in ’11. Those numbers came down in ’12 and ’13, and his control didn’t necessarily get better. Last year he posted a 4.45 ERA in the Pacific Coast League, not a deal-breaker given the hitter-friendly environs of the PCL, and an 8.1 K/9 with a 3.6 BB/9. The decline in strikeouts and the problems with control make Paxton a risk, but that’s a reason he’s not guaranteed a long-term spot in the Mariners rotation. Still, with a good ballpark, good stuff and a good chance at making the team out of camp, he’s a solid late-round flier.
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Yordano Ventura, Royals. Ventura debuted last season with the Royals, posting a solid 3.52 ERA in 15.1 innings. His strikeout rate was middling at 6.5 K/9 with a 3.5 BB/9, but Ventura had dominant whiff rates in the minors. He struck out 98 in 76.1 innings at High-A in 2012, followed by 74 Ks in 57.2 innings at Double-A in ’13. He whiffed 81 in 77 innings at Triple-A before his call-up. He's battling Danny Duffy for the last spot in Kansas City, but the Royals should go with the talent here.
Carlos Martinez, Cardinals. Martinez posted a 5.08 ERA last season, but had a better 3.08 FIP and 3.83 xFIP. BABIP was his problem last season and the Cardinals are willing to give him a shot in the rotation. It seems a bit of a long-shot that he wins a job over Joe Kelly, but one could have said the same thing about Shelby Miller last year. Martinez's K/9 in Triple-A was 8.3 and his control was decent at 3.6 BB/9. Even if he fails to make the rotation right away, daily leaguers should consider keeping him around. He could still provide value in those leagues as a reliever.
Rafael Montero, Mets. Montero almost certainly won’t break camp with the Mets, but neither will Noah Syndergaard, and that’s not stopping a few fantasy owners from speculating on him. Montero has been solid this spring and was excellent in a brutal pitching environment last year at Triple-A Las Vegas. His strikeout rate did drop to 7.9 K/9, but Montero’s control has been solid throughout the minors. He’d be worth an investment as soon as he’s called up. Given his time at Triple-A last year, he may not be down on the farm long.