This time of year can be like Christmas to keeper-league owners.
With the admittedly arbitrary “Super Two” cutoff either nearly here or already passed, teams are calling up their MLB-ready prospects. Even the Pirates finally promoted Gregory Polanco this week. Armed with new toys in their lineups, fantasy owners can feel the possibilities for their rookies are limitless.
Reality often has other ideas.
Take Oscar Taveras owners. He’s been talked about for years before he got to the majors and hit a home run in his first game, which clearly designated him as a ready-made star. But since then, he’s had just six hits, five of them singles, in his next 10 games. The rookie is now slashing .189/.225/.297 so far. More experienced rookies Billy Hamilton and Xander Bogaerts are even progressing slowly.
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Disappointment doesn’t just lend itself to rookies. Keeper-league owners who landed Jean Segura and Wil Myers last year probably felt like they had secured cornerstones for the future. Instead, they’ve been anything but. Myers has been outproduced by James Jones -- no, not the football player. And Segura is just barely ahead of Brandon Crawford in our Roto Rater at shortstop.
The likes of Mike Trout, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey and other instant stars have spoiled us. We hope for the next big thing and while players like Taveras, Myers and Segura have the talent, the consistency may not be there yet. There’s no shame in that; Mickey Mantle was famously sent down to the minors in his rookie year. But gritting out the slumps without a long major league resume to fall back on requires patience from owners and a reminder of what you thought you had when the guy was first called up.
Taveras is a guy who hit for average everywhere in the minors, on the strength of a very good BABIP but also a solid strikeout rate. His highest strikeout rate in Double-A or Triple-A was 12 percent. So far in the majors, it’s 17.5 percent, so there's a learning curve. But his BABIP is just .200. Taveras will eventually hit, and if an owner wants to panic and sell low, jump on it.
As for Myers and Segura, don’t dismiss 2013 and, likewise, don’t think 2014 is the end. Myers' strikeout rate has always been on the high side. He’s been above 20 percent ever since High-A. The .293 average last year was going to be on the high end of what to expect anyway, thanks to a .362 BABIP. This year, the BABIP is .282, and the average has plummeted to .227. Know that Myers' true talent level probably is that of a .270 hitter with 25-homer power and a handful of steals -- and he can certainly improve. Don’t lose faith.
Likewise, Segura’s power surge at the start of last season may have been a mirage. But he remains a hitter who doesn’t strikeout a whole lot (12 percent this year, 13.5 percent last season), and has great wheels. The .281 BABIP is probably a little low. He’s better than he showed in 2014, even if this is his true talent level. At 24 years old, he still has room to improve.
That’s not to say you can’t move a young player if you’re contending this year, especially for a guy like Myers who is out for a while. But don’t sell just because these guys haven’t lit the world on fire this season. You may end up regretting it sooner than you realize.
Just ask anyone who cut George Springer.