In fantasy baseball, we’re all in the prediction business. We make projections, we rank players and we analyze those sleeper/bust picks. It can be on a macro level, like before a season, or on a micro level, as in whether a specific player is worth starting for a single game.
But we also have our pie-in-the-sky predictions. Those are the ones we don’t really think will come true but, deep down, believe are possible. It's what you're feeling when you snag that sleeper in the 20th round and hope he’s bound for stardom, or when someone else takes that risk on your “do not draft" list.
These are the best- or worst-case scenarios based on either prior production, change in environment or rumors. They are the extreme ends of the prediction curve and unlikely, though not impossible, to occur. It would be akin to someone saying Jean Segura would hit 10 homers and steal 40 bases before last season. It happened, so it was possible, but few people considered it a legitimate possibility.
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So without any further ado, here are five extreme predictions for the 2014 fantasy baseball season.
1. Tyson Ross will be a top-20 fantasy starting pitcher.
Last year’s No. 20 SP in our Roto Rater was Homer Bailey, who posted an 8.6 K/9 in 209 innings with 11 wins and a 3.49 ERA. Ross last year in 125 innings had an 8.6 K/9 and 3.17 ERA and pitches in a more favorable park. So, why is this bold? Ross would have a large innings jump to make while maintaining his strong rate stats. Still, I like him to do it.
2. Bud Norris finishes the year as the Orioles' closer.
This was kicked around during the offseason, but the Orioles seem to be intent on keeping him in the rotation for now. But by the end of the year? The Orioles have Kevin Gausman on the farm and Dylan Bundy (elbow) on the mend. They also signed Johan Santana and view him as a starter. Plus, as a fly-ball pitcher in Baltimore who lacks a good third pitch, Norris’ best fit seems to be as a high-leverage reliever. Eventually, the Orioles may give it a try.
3. Justin Morneau will hit .280 with 25 home runs, 80 runs, 90 RBIs.
No, Morneau is not the same player he was four years ago. But he’s going to an ultra-friendly hitters park (Colorado) in an easier league. His RBI and run totals should also improve given that he’ll have better hitters around him.
4. Billy Hamilton will be demoted at some point in 2014.
Hamilton did steal 75 bases in 123 games at Triple-A last year. But he also batted just .256 at the level. While he did bat .368 in the majors last year, that was in just 19 at-bats. If Hamilton struggles to hit for average, his low walk rate (6.9 percent last season at Triple-A) won’t help him get to first base that much. Hamilton will be a risky early-round investment.
5. Jeff Samardzija will be a top-five SP in 2014.
Samardzija has almost everything you want from a pitcher. He misses bats (struck out a batter per inning the last two seasons), has solid control (sub-3.3 BB/9 the last two years) and gets a decent number of ground balls. Don’t buy that 4.34 ERA from 2013; Samardzija will almost certainly improve this season. If he gets lucky, he could be a legit ace.