This is the latest preview in a series examining the 2014 fantasy baseball outlook of each major league team. Today, a look at the Orioles. For every team preview along with player rankings, stat projections, mock drafts and more, join Fantasy Source Baseball!
WHAT'S NEW
There isn’t much new in Baltimore to start 2014, but that’s OK.
The offense, which produced the league leader in home runs (Chris Davis), a five-tool asset (Adam Jones) and one of the game’s most exciting young position players (Manny Machado) returns largely intact. In fact, the top six spots of the lineup should be the exact same as last season.
That’s a good thing. Every one of those hitters, with the possible exception of Nick Markakis, will be drafted in mixed leagues and all should provide solid fantasy production.
The bottom three spots will be filled with either offseason acquisitions or new starters, but unless one of those guys moves higher up the lineup, they will be relegated to AL-only leagues.
The present-day pitching in Baltimore is less enticing for fantasy owners, though that may be partially due to what’s on the horizon. Newcomer Ubaldo Jimenez is uber-frustrating, and Chris Tillman, Bud Norris and Wei-Yin Chen don’t excite the same way Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman do. But with Bundy out for the first half of the year and Gausman’s 2014 role uncertain, the Orioles’ less-exciting rotation will have to do for now. Don’t forget about those young arms, though. They could easily play a factor for the Orioles later this season and could do the same for your fantasy team.
Baltimore’s offense will see plenty of action on fantasy draft day. But the Orioles’ pitching could be a waiver-wire factor for fantasy owners when it’s time to decide champions in September.
Key additions: SP Ubaldo Jimenez, OF David Lough, 2B Jemile Weeks, SP/RP Suk-min Yoon, OF Delmon Young.
Key subtractions: SP Jason Hammel, RP Jim Johnson, OF Nate McLouth, 2B Brian Roberts.
Contract-year players: SS J.J. Hardy, OF Nick Markakis (mutual option), Darren O’Day (club option).
Orioles team page | Stat Projections | Auction Values
BURNING QUESTION
When will Manny Machado’s power materialize?
Last season in 156 games, Manny Machado slugged 14 home runs. Among qualified third baseman, that put him in a four-way tie for 11th place. Yet Machado had more doubles (51) than any other third baseman. Doubles are often a precursor of future power, especially as a batter matures and grows stronger. So is the 21-year-old set for a power surge?
Maybe, maybe not. Machado had the fourth-highest ground ball percentage among third basemen and, as we all know, ground balls don’t typically go for homers. According to his spray charts on Fangraphs.com, the majority of Machado’s doubles came down the lines and in the gaps, not rockets off the wall.
However, Machado did appear to have nine or so near-miss home runs, if you factor in doubles, singles and long fly outs. It isn’t crazy to think that with a little more luck and strength, Machado could push a few more of those over the wall this season.
Provided he starts the season on time – his knee injury leaves some doubt to that – those drafting Machado this year should consider a .290 average with around 17 home runs a fair projection of his ability. A power surge is possible, but don’t bank on getting anything more than 20 home runs this season.
Projected Lineup: 1. Nick Markakis, RF; 2. Manny Machado, 3B; 3. Chris Davis, 1B; 4. Adam Jones, CF; 5. Matt Wieters, C; 6. J.J. Hardy, SS; 7. Nolan Reimold, DH; 8. David Lough, LF; 9. Jemile Weeks, 2B.
Lineup Analysis: The Orioles offense finished fourth in OPS and, with the top six batters all returning, this should be a dangerous lineup again. Despite the relatively low-OBP guys in front of him (Markakis, Machado), Chris Davis drove in 138 RBIs last year while clubbing 53 homers and batting .286. An improvement from Machado and a return to form from Markakis, who owns a .360 lifetime OBP, should help Davis maintain his RBI numbers even if his power and average regress a little in 2014. Adam Jones will clean up what Davis does not, having slugged 30-plus homers in each of the past two seasons.
Neither J.J. Hardy nor Matt Wieters is going to help you in batting average, but both are valuable power assets. Both players have hit more than 20 homers in each of the last three seasons while playing positions where power is at a premium.
The bottom of the order is a work in progress with Nolan Reimold healthy (for now), new acquisition David Lough in the outfield mix and Jemile Weeks and Ryan Flaherty battling at second base.
Position Battle: Second base is a competition between the newly acquired Jemile Weeks and Ryan Flaherty. They offer entirely different things; Weeks is all speed and little power, while Flaherty’s main fantasy attribute is power. Weeks spent most of 2013 in Triple-A and had a solid season, but his track record makes him hard to trust if he wins the job. Flaherty, meanwhile, hit 10 homers in just 85 games. Whoever wins the job starts the season as an AL-only option. … Left field/DH is up in the air. Reimold and Lough are the early favorites with Henry Urrutia and Delmon Young also in the mix. Lough is mildly interesting. He swiped 26 bases in Triple-A in 2012 (though it was his third year at that level) and hit 10 homers that season; he batted .286 with five homers and five steals with the Royals in 2013. Reimold has power upside, but hasn’t played a full season in years, so fantasy owners in mixed leagues shouldn’t expect much. Young still has pop -- he hit 11 homers in 103 games last season -- but that’s all he has. Urrutia, a 27-year-old Cuban defector, lacks the power fantasy owners want out of an outfield spot and doesn’t have big-time speed either.
Sleeper: As you might have surmised from the Position Battle section, the Orioles have a few guys who fit into the “power sleeper” category. Flaherty, Young and Reimold are all guys who, if given a full season, could contribute a cheap 20 home runs to your squad. Flaherty, because he’s a second baseman, would be especially valuable if that happened. … Urrutia hit only nine homers between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last year (zero with the Orioles), but he did hit three dingers in 18 games in the Arizona Fall League. It’s a small sample, but Urrutia would be worth a look in AL-only leagues if he secures playing time.
Projected Rotation: 1. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP; 2. Chris Tillman, RHP; 3. Wei-Yin Chen, LHP; 4. Bud Norris, RHP; 5. Miguel Gonzalez, RHP. Also in the mix: Kevin Gausman, RHP; Suk-Min Yoon, RHP; Brian Matusz, LHP; Zach Britton, LHP.
Projected Bullpen: Closer: Tommy Hunter, RHP; Next-in-line: Darren O'Day, RHP.
Staff Analysis: At this moment, the Orioles staff is light on mixed-league options. Jimenez can provide Ks, but his erratic control can also destroy your WHIP and ERA. Chris Tillman, who went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA last season and posted a solid 7.8 K/9, is another guy who could be drafted in most leagues. Wei-Yin Chen’s strikeout rates hover around 7.0 K/9 and his ERA around 4.00, making him a just spot-starter or AL-only league option. Bud Norris’ strikeout rates declined last season and his ERA was in the low 4.00s. Now stuck in the hitter-friendly AL East, he’s an AL-only player at best. Miguel Gonzalez had posted solid ERAs the past two seasons, but his low strikeout rates don’t make him mixed-league material.
There are some nice signs with a few of the pitchers, though. Tillman’s strikeout rate was much improved in 2013, and Norris whiffed better than a batter per inning after his trade to Baltimore. But, overall, owners shouldn’t expect drastic improvement.
Position Battle: The rotation is full, but Suk-Min Yoon, Zach Britton, Brian Matusz and Kevin Gausman could all be competing for a spot. Yoon and Matusz both have bullpen experience. Britton is a good ground ball pitcher, but struggles with control and doesn’t miss many bats. Gausman, who struck out more than a batter per inning in 47.2 innings last season, would be a nice late-round sleeper in mixed leagues if he wins a job. But most likely he'll be an early-season injury replacement. … With former closer Jim Johnson now in Oakland and the Grant Balfour deal falling through, Tommy Hunter appears to be set to close for Baltimore. The 27-year-old Hunter posted an excellent 2.81 ERA in 2013, and hardly ever walks anyone. However, his middling 7.1 K/9 last year was a career high (his career K/9 is 5.4) and he’s a fly ball pitcher. Consider him a risky long-term investment even though he may not come at a very high cost. If Hunter fails, Gausman or Yoon could be saves sleepers.
Sleeper: Gausman is the guy to watch on the Orioles staff. Even though he had a 5.66 ERA last season, his best work came in 23 innings as a reliever (3.52 ERA). His ERA in 35.2 Triple-A innings was 4.04, but he had an 8.3 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9. In short, everything in his numbers thus far indicates he’s got the stuff to be a successful major league arm despite his 2013 struggles in the majors. He’s worth a gamble, especially if he breaks camp in that fifth spot. ... Suk-Min Yoon has worked as both a starter and reliever overseas. He was a hotter commodity two years ago but declined to come over to the U.S. at that time. Yoon has dealt with shoulder problems that forced him to the pen, and likely hurt his value, but he'll be worth keeping an eye on.
TO-KNOW LIST
MEDICAL REPORT: Top prospect Dylan Bundy did not pitch at all in 2013 and eventually required Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, since he didn’t have the surgery until last June, his return date is likely sometime in the second half this season, if at all. Still, keep an eye on his progress, just in case. … Manny Machado’s recovery from left knee surgery (torn medial patellar ligament) is ahead of schedule, and he’s expected to be ready for opening day. Even if that’s overly optimistic, Machado should be ready sometime in April. Watch him closely this spring. ... Suk-Min Yoon's shoulder has been a problem in the past, but since he passed the Orioles' physical, which has failed two players this offseason, owners shouldn't freak out too much about it.
PROSPECT WATCH: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez posted a 4.22 ERA in 59.2 Double-A innings last year. That doesn’t seem that impressive, but that came with an 8.9 K/9, followed by a 9.8 K/9 (albeit with a 5.52 ERA) in the Arizona Fall League. Rodriguez probably won’t be a factor early on, but could contribute later this season. … 2B Jonathan Schoop is arguably the Orioles’ top hitting prospect and got a cup of coffee (five games) last year. Schoop’s Triple-A numbers were poor -- he hit .256/.301/.396 with nine homers and a steal in 70 games last season -- but back issues could be blamed for a large part of that. If healthy, he’s worth monitoring since the O’s second base situation is unsettled.
SABR SECTION: Hitters with obscene strikeout rates usually struggle to hit for average. Chris Davis struck out nearly 30 percent of the time last season and still hit .286. The odds that happens again are not high if he doesn’t cut down on the Ks. He may also regress in the power department, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to crater. “Regression” for Davis probably means 40-45 homers. Last year’s campaign was probably the absolute best-case scenario for his power and average. … Matt Wieters has a career BABIP of .283. Last season, it was .247. He doesn’t strikeout out at an alarming clip (18.4 percent for his career) so a bounce-back in average is possible. Given that he should hit 20 homers as a catcher, consider him a potential value as your fantasy backstop regardless of his average.
POSITION ELIGIBILITY: For leagues with stringent SP/RP designations, Gausman should be eligible at both with 15 relief appearances and five starts. … 2B Ryan Flaherty also logged nine games at SS and seven games at 3B, so check your league’s requirements to see if he has multi-position eligibility. He’s definitely losing OF eligibility, though, after not playing a single game there in 2013. … Chris Davis’ outfield eligibility is no more -- not that the loss is going to hurt his draft stock any.
BALLPARK EFFECT: Oriole Park at Camden Yards has always been considered a hitter-friendly environment. Last year was no exception. Our preseason Ballpark Rankings list it as the third-friendliest park for hitters in all of MLB. Specifically, Statcorner.com lists it as very homer-happy for lefthanded power and favorable for righthanded power as well. Keep that in mind when your players, especially your lefty sluggers, visit Oriole Park.
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