World Cup Final 2018: Odds, predictions for France vs. Croatia

AccuScore

World Cup Final 2018: Odds, predictions for France vs. Croatia image

The 2018 World Cup is all but finished, with only the third-place match between England and Belgium and the final between France and Croatia to go.

After battling through six games in some four weeks, the final features a huge surprise team in Croatia and not so surprisingly, France. Third place is then decided between England and Belgium, both after massive disappointments in the semifinal stage.

In AccuScore simulations, the semifinals did not go as expected, as both teams predicted to go through to the final failed to do so. Belgium was only 0.2-percent favorite over France, but England should’ve done better. Both France and Belgium were likely to beat their opponents from the other side of the bracket in simulations before the semifinals.

WORLD CUP LIVE: Sign up for a fubo.TV free trial

Overall, AccuScore’s FIFA World Cup 2018 tournament will finish on the positive, as the value picks have already made a small but solid profit even before the last two games.

Accuscore’s original pre-tournament prediction had France meeting Croatia already in the first knockout stage and then France was a clear favorite to progress. Croatia has, however, been the most improved team since those simulations, although they have continuously survived against the odds. Belgium was favored to go all the way in the simulations after group stage, but third place is now the best they can do. England and Croatia were definitely the surprise teams as neither were supposed to pass the first knockout round.

Third-place odds, predictions:
England vs. Belgium

Belgium is more likely to nullify the disappointment of the semifinal and gather their troops for the third-place playoff. They looked a bit dull against the solid defense of France, but also played with an unfamiliar and somewhat defensive mentality. When going all-out attack, Belgium has more potential than England, which seemed to run out of gas in the semifinal and couldn’t create a single shot on goal except for the Kieran Trippier goal-scoring free kick.

AccuScore's pick: The nature of the game suggests a rather open and high-scoring game, and in the simulations Belgium will prevail with 55-percent probability.

World Cup final odds, predictions:
France vs. Croatia

The AccuScore supercomputer still doesn’t like Croatia. They've not impressed statistically and have been on the edge several times already, grinding their own system to a fault. Croatia has played three games of 120 minutes in the playoffs and showed amazing persistence to push through all of them.

France has done pretty much the opposite and seemed only to sweat just enough to snatch the win. Les Bleus have been impressive at that and barely gave their opponents a chance. Shutting down Belgium was an excellent show of their inexorable defensive play, while in attack they did exactly what was needed and not much more.  They’ve been excellent and dominating in their own end and dangerous enough in the attack, although their conversion rate from goal-scoring opportunities could be a lot better. Especially Oliver Giroud, who has had closer to 10 scoring chances, but failed to score a single goal.

AccuScore's pick: In AccuScore simulations, France will take a narrow win in a defensive battle, with 68-percent probability.

AccuScore