The 2018 FIFA World Cup will kick off in Russia on June 14 with 32 teams vying for international soccer supremacy, and the chance to life that famous golden trophy on July 15, the day of the final.
Before the competition gets boiled down to two final squads, every qualified team has three games to prove it deserve to be in the Round of 16 knockout stage. The teams with the highest amount of matchpoints in each group move on.
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AccuScore simulations have hit their target remarkably well in the past, and there are once again some disagreements with the current markets. With AccuScore’s simulation engine, we are able to determine things like each team's odds of winning its group, qualifying for the knockout stage and who will be the top scorers of each group.
World Cup group stage: Odds, predictions, picks to advance
AccuScore’s Group A predictions:
| Group A | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Uruguay | 7.4 | 81.7 | 96.0 | -126 | -556 |
| Russia | 4.2 | 11.5 | 56.0 | +190 | -257 |
| Egypt | 3.4 | 5.6 | 35.2 | +565 | +160 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.9 | 1.2 | 12.8 | +3700 | +720 |
Group A opens the tournament as hosts Russia play against Saudi Arabia on Thursday 14th. The group seems rather clear in AccuScore simulations. Uruguay is the most likely winner, with the Russians well behind, although possibly fighting for a draw against the Uruguayans. Egypt is pushing for the qualification spot, led by Mohamed Salah, but other than beating Saudi Arabia they’re likely to fall short. Russia and Egypt are likely to decide the second place in their head-to-head match, while Uruguay should win the group comfortably.
Top scorers in Group A:
Edinson Cavani, Uruguay: 2.4
Mohamed Salah, Egypt: 2.2
Luis Suarez, Uruguay: 2.1
Fedor Smolov, Russia: 1.2
Fahad Al-Muwallad, Saudi Arabia: 0.9
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AccuScore’s Group B predictions:
| Group B | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Spain | 6.6 | 62.8 | 89.8 | -200 | -1633 |
| Portugal | 5.3 | 29.1 | 74.2 | +195 | -435 |
| Iran | 3.3 | 6.9 | 28.6 | +3000 | +600 |
| Morocco | 1.6 | 1.2 | 7.5 | +1450 | +335 |
Group B is pre-set for the two top clubs Spain and Portugal. They’re likely to settle the top spot in their head-to-head matchup. In simulations Iran is likely to surprise Morocco and can also cause some problems to the favorites. Portugal might struggle a bit to break through Iran’s stalwart and disciplined defense and only manage a draw. Morocco on the other hand is much more likely to play attacking football, making their defense easier for the more skillful teams to exploit. However, it would be a massive shock if it was some other team making it through than Spain and Portugal.
Top scorers in Group B:
Christiano Ronaldo, Portugal: 3.5
Sardad Azmoun, Iran: 1.9
Iago Aspas, Spain: 1.9
Diego Costa, Spain: 1.4
Hakim Ziyech, Morocco: 1.0
AccuScore’s Group C predictions:
| Group C | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| France | 6.9 | 62.8 | 92.6 | -345 | -2700 |
| Denmark | 4.4 | 15.4 | 57.0 | +450 | -149 |
| Peru | 3.9 | 10.3 | 42.1 | +1100 | +180 |
| Australia | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8.2 | +2400 | +445 |
France is heavy favorite to win the group, but Denmark and Peru are giving their all to cause another disappointment for Didier Deschamps’ squad. The favorites might drop points in a draw against Denmark or Peru, but are still number one in the group. Australia is the odd man out and even snatching a point with them would be an achievement. Most intriguing battle will be between Denmark and Peru, who are quite evenly matched in the hunt for the second qualifying spot in the group – and are also most likely to play an all even draw.
Top scorers in Group C:
Antoine Griezmann, France: 2.2
Kylian Mbappe, France: 1.7
Paolo Guerrero, Peru: 1.1
Christian Eriksen, Denmark: 1.1
Mathew Leckie, Australia: 0.7
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AccuScore’s Group D predictions:
| Group D | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Argentina | 6.7 | 76.5 | 92.9 | -167 | -625 |
| Croatia | 3.4 | 8.8 | 38.7 | +225 | -213 |
| Nigeria | 3.4 | 8.7 | 38.6 | +900 | +194 |
| Iceland | 2.9 | 6.0 | 29.7 | +1000 | +264 |
Group D is expected to be one of the more interesting ones. Even with Argentina clear favorites to top the group, the other three teams are quite evenly matched and have a great chance to pull an upset. Stealing a point from Argentina through a draw is a possibility to any of the challengers and then it’s up to the head-to-head games to decide who’ll qualify. Croatia and Nigeria come second with almost the same likelihood, while Iceland is not too far behind – if they get similar flow going as in Euro 2016, there could be some interesting developments in Group D.
Top scorers in Group D:
Lionel Messi, Argentina: 1.8
Sergio Agüero, Argentina: 1.7
Paulo Dybala, Argentina: 1.4
Andrej Kramaric, Croatia: 0.9
Alfred Finnbogason, Iceland: 0.8
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AccuScore’s Group E predictions:
| Group E | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Brazil | 7.2 | 81.3 | 95.2 | -400 | -4000 |
| Serbia | 4.0 | 10.9 | 53.5 | +760 | +112 |
| Switzerland | 2.7 | 3.8 | 25.7 | +610 | -103 |
| Costa Rica | 2.7 | 3.9 | 29.7 | +2200 | +435 |
Brazil is the sole favorite to take the group, but it gets remarkably more interesting after that. The consensus would put Switzerland second, but in Accuscore simulations its Serbia more likely to qualify. Switzerland is a good team by all means, but they’re lacking that particular skill to put them past the feisty Serbians, who now possess some top level flair as well. Costa Rica can’t be counted out outright either, like they proved last time around. They’re not as fresh this year, though and it’s likely that some other team will fill their boots as the dark horse in top-16.
Top scorers in Group E:
Neymar, Brazil: 2.9
Alexandar Mitrovic, Serbia : 1.7
Gabriel Jesus, Brazil: 1.6
Marcos Ureña, Costa Rica: 0.8
Josip Drmic, Switzerland: 0.8
AccuScore’s Group F predictions:
| Group F | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Germany | 7.2 | 82.1 | 95.6 | -371 | -2850 |
| Serbia | 3.9 | 10.3 | 53.4 | +595 | -105 |
| Switzerland | 2.9 | 4.6 | 29.5 | +2000 | +410 |
| Costa Rica | 2.4 | 2.9 | 21.5 | +840 | +124 |
Germany is by far the top dog here and it shouldn’t even be a contest – their substitutes would probably win the group. Mexico is also a likely qualifier, but they will receive a lot of pressure from the minnows Korea and Sweden. Mexico’s offense is quality, but a lot could be better at the back. Without Zlatan, Sweden is a question mark, but they play with big hearts and are hard to break down. Not a lot of production is expected, which might prove to be their Achilles’ heel. The Koreans are easy to underestimate, but they play with such pace and tireless mentality, they are also tough to crack.
Top scorers in Group F:
Timo Werner, Germany: 1.6
Marco Reus, Germany: 1.5
Javier Hernandez, Mexico: 1.1
Heung-Min Son, South Korea: 0.8
John Guidetti, Sweden: 0.5
AccuScore’s Group G predictions:
| Group G | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Belgium | 6.5 | 63.0 | 89.6 | -125 | -1429 |
| England | 5.1 | 29.3 | 73.7 | +115 | -878 |
| Tunisia | 2.8 | 4.7 | 21.7 | +1600 | +460 |
| Panama | 2.2 | 3.0 | 15.0 | +5000 | +880 |
Interesting top duo and not so interesting bottom pair. Belgium’s golden generation is now closing on its peak and they’re expected to deliver after falling short for a while. They are likely to beat England to group title. England’s team is all but golden this time around, but finally the fact is widely recognized and they might even surprise. Also, Harry Kane can win games on his own. Tunisia and Panama were handed a tough draw and they are merely to provide some sparring for the top teams – their overall quality is close to the worst in the tournament, despite a couple of top-notch individuals.
Top scorers in Group G:
Harry Kane, England: 2.6
Romelu Lukaku, Belgium: 1.7
Dries Mertens, Belgium: 1.6
Luis Tejada, Panama: 1.5
Wahbi Khazri, Tunisia: 1.0
AccuScore’s Group H predictions:
| Group H | MP | Win% | Qual% | Odds to win | Odds to qualify |
| Colombia | 5.7 | 48.6 | 80.7 | +133 | -334 |
| Poland | 5.3 | 38.7 | 75.3 | +188 | -196 |
| Japan | 3.0 | 7.5 | 25.0 | +760 | +236 |
| Senegal | 2.6 | 52 | 19.0 | +460 | +137 |
Last but not least, Group H has potential to turn out to be the most interesting in the tournament. While Colombia and Poland are very likely to qualify, led by their superstars up front, the group winner is still under contest. Senegal is regarded as third option for qualification, but interestingly Accuscore simulations don’t give them much chance. Their offensive production is lacking, despite some great individuals, and defensively they are vulnerable especially in counter-attack. Japan is likely to challenge, as they’re comfortable to put up a defensive wall for as long as is needed and see where it takes them.
Top scorers in Group H:
Robert Lewandowski, Poland: 3.1
Radamel Falcao, Colombia: 2.3
James Rodriguez, Colombia: 1.5
Sadio Mane, Senegal: 0.9
Keisuke Honda, Japan: 0.7