Due to the Jaguars playing their annual London “home game” against the Texans, we’re looking at a 10-game DFS main slate. Week 9 looks to test the daily fantasy adage that the late games never shoot out as the three highest totals on Sunday’s slate reside in the 4pm window (although we don’t yet have a total for the Vikings at Chiefs as we await word on if Patrick Mahomes will suit up).
While early game ownership always surpass those on the later portion of the slate, I recommend extreme discipline in not getting over-invested in the 1 p.m. games as the people at the top of the leaderboards when they kick off in Oakland and Seattle will almost certainly be surpassed by the end of play.
Before we break down top Week 9 value plays, please note that the picks and analysis below is provided by the industry-leading DFS experts at RotoQL Find out why 100,000 DFS players trust RotoQL to build lineups. Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today!
WEEK 9 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
NFL DFS Picks Week 9: QB sleepers, values
Derek Carr, Raiders vs Lions (DraftKings $5,500 | FanDuel $7,300)
Carr’s coming off of his best fantasy game of the season, a 285-yard, three-touchdown and zero-interception performance against the Texans, and now faces a Lions defense that ranks 22nd against the pass according to DVOA and has allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to the quarterback position at 23.42.
The Oakland offense has scored at least 24 points in their last four games and is only getting better. Tyrell Williams returned on Sunday from a foot injury that kept him sidelined since Week 4 to a well-rounded passing attack with the emergence of Hunter Renfrow and Foster Moreau. Rookie Josh Jacobs has established himself as the running back scouts envisioned coming out of Alabama, and there’s a great chance this game shoots out as Detroit’s scored at least 30 points in three of their last four games.
Paired with Tyrell the Gazelle or Darren Waller, Carr is a strong play in all formats. Running it back with Kenny Golladay or Marvin Jones will be one of the week’s more appealing and popular game stacks.
MORE WEEK 9 DFS: Stacks | Lineup builder
Mitchell Trubisky, Bears at Eagles (DraftKings $5,000 | FanDuel $6,500)
I understand this feels kind of gross, but the Eagles are allowing 19.5 fantasy points per game to the position with the 16th-best pass defense according to DVOA while effectively shutting down the run game with the sixth-best run defense that allows the 28th-fewest fantasy points to running backs at 14.4 a game.
While this flies in the face of coach Matt Nagy’s acknowledgement that the Bears need to run the ball more, Philadelphia is a bit of a pass funnel, and Trubisky has topped 20 DraftKings points in two of the last three games he’s finished. With Chicago sitting as five-point underdogs -- and in the midst of a three-game losing streak -- Trubisky’s likely to be playing catch-up.
Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Tarik Cohen and Taylor Gabriel are more than enough weapons for Trubisky to have a ceiling game and throw up a GPP winning score. A 25-point performance is not likely, but is within the reasonable range of outcomes (he exceeded 30 DraftKings points four times last season) and makes Trubisky an intriguing large field GPP play at extremely low ownership.
WEEK 9 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 9 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, values
Derrick Henry, Titans at Panthers (DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $6,800)
Tennessee wants their offense to be run-based, and this week they’re facing the worst rushing defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The Panthers have allowed 28.33 DraftKings points per game to running backs, and yet Henry carries just the 12th-highest running back salary on DraftKings.
Henry has received 79.6 percent of Titans' running back touches on the season, the sixth-highest mark in the NFL, and near exclusive use in close games as the four-point spread suggests this to be. While Henry isn’t the sexiest option on this week’s slate, he’s a strong play in all formats with a high floor and ceiling that can be rostered at a price that doesn’t match the opportunity and opponent.
Jaylen Samuels, Steelers vs Colts (DraftKings $4,000 | FanDuel $5,000)
Jaylen Samuels garnered a lot of buzz in the offseason with reports out of the Steelers’ camp pegging him as a significant part of Pittsburgh’s offensive plans, but that didn’t happen until game four when he exploded for 23.5 DraftKings points against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. Samuels was a hot waiver wire addition prior to a Week 5 match against the Ravens, where Samuels promptly injured his knee and hasn’t seen the field since.
Samuels rejoins the Steelers this weekend against a Colts defense that ranks 27th in DVOA against the run, and a backfield all to himself with James Conner and rookie Benny Snell questionable to suit up due to injuries sustained in Pittsburgh’s Monday night victory over the hapless Dolphins.
Samuels has good size and average athleticism for an NFL running back, but he showed he’s more than capable of producing as a team’s lead back for short periods last December when he served as the Steelers’ primary runner. Across five games, Samuels averaged 4.5 receptions and 15.3 DraftKings points per game, numbers easily achievable if Conner can’t suit up on Sunday. If Samuels starts, he’s viable in all formats and approaching lock status for cash games.
WEEK 9 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
FanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 9: WR sleepers, values
Mike Williams, Chargers vs Packers (DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $5,700)
In the massive wideout’s third season out of Clemson, Williams has established himself as Philip Rivers’s favorite big-play target and an increasingly important part of the Chargers passing attack, a role that’s only likely to expand with the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt.
Averaging 8.75 targets across four games in October, Williams is simply underpriced by any reasonable measure. Williams has the ninth longest average target distance in the league at 15.2 yards and is due for touchdown regression as he’s yet to find the end zone in his season’s 26 receptions.
The Chargers project to be in negative game script as three-point home underdogs, so Rivers should target Williams early and often.
Preston Williams, Dolphins vs Jets (DraftKings $4,200 | FanDuel $5,500)
Undrafted rookie Williams has been one of the most targeted receivers in the NFL as the Miami Dolphins have been playing catch-up all season long, and Williams' salary has yet to match his opportunity or production.
This is a fantastic spot for the hyper-athletic Williams as the Dolphins are three-point home underdogs to the New York Jets ,who have the worst pass defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The Jets are surrendering 39.83 DraftKings points per game to wide receivers, and Williams is in line for a large portion of that production as he’s averaging 7.3 targets a game.
With Fitzmagic slinging the ball for the 'Phins once again these past few weeks, Williams, and DeVante Parker, will see slate-breaking opportunity for those willing to roster the high-risk, high-reward passcatchers.
WEEK 9: Waiver wire | FAAB planner | Trade values | Snap counts
Week 9 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, values
T.J. Hockenson, Lions at Raiders (DraftKings $3,700 | FanDuel $5,000)
The University of Iowa had two tight ends selected in the first round of this year’s draft, and both draw interesting matchups at low salaries this week. The Lions took Hockenson with the eighth overall pick, and his production this season has been as matchup-dependent as anyone in the league. Cupcake matchup? Hockenson kills it like a stoner with the munchies. Tough draw? Hockenson’s nowhere to be found.
The Raiders are allowing 16.69 DraftKings points per game to tight ends, third most in the NFL, and Detroit has a healthy 24.25 implied total as two-point road underdogs, so Hockenson appears to be in a great spot.
Most players stacking this game will roster Waller, but a Carr-Williams-Hockenson stack will give you access an extremely low-owned roster configuration in a game with a 50.5 point total, and leave you with enough salary to surround them with studs capable of taking down a GPP. This is a tournament-only play, but one of the week’s most appealing.
Noah Fant, Bengals vs Cardinals (DraftKings $3,000 | FanDuel $4,600)
Noah Fant, the other Hawkeye rookie tight end, went to Denver with the 20th overall pick, and he’s become a larger part of the Broncos’ offense with every passing week. Several factors suggest this might be Fant’s breakout game.
Factor 1 -- Emmanuel Sanders was traded to San Francisco leaving 6.28 targets a game up for grabs. In Denver’s first game without Sanders, Fant saw a career-high eight targets.
Factor 2 -- While the numbers suggest Cleveland is a middle of the road matchup for tight ends, the Browns got their starting cornerbacks (Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams) back last week, so it’s suddenly much a tougher matchup for wide receivers.
Factor 3 -- Brandon Allen will be making his first NFL start, and rookie quarterbacks are notoriously generous to tight ends.
Add in the fact that Fant’s one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, and he’s a great dart throw in large field GPPs.
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Week 9 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepers
Washington Redskins, Redskins at Bills (DraftKings $1,800 | FanDuel $3,000)
The lowest priced defensive option on both sites, the Redskins are one of the more interesting tournament options and even cash-game viable against a Bills offense that’s surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses (10.3).
It sounds like an awful idea, but the price and opponent aren’t the only things in Washington’s favor as the Redskins defense has averaged 7.6 points over their last five contests and haven’t gone negative all season. With Josh Allen taking an average of four sacks over his last four games, there’s a higher floor than one might imagine.