Week 9 Daily Fantasy Football Advice: Projected ownership percentages for NFL DFS contests

Thomas Emerick

Week 9 Daily Fantasy Football Advice: Projected ownership percentages for NFL DFS contests image

Wow, this week was....stressful. Lose Deshaun late-week and then suddenly Zeke's back in the mix. You better believe those developments will throw Week 9 NFL DFS picks into flux.

We'll break down DraftKings ownership narratives with the help of UFCollective's projections. Finding the right mix of high- and low-owned players can make the difference in smashing GPPs or ending up with the pack.

For DraftKings' 10-game featured slate in NFL Week 9.

WEEK 9 DFS:
Yahoo GPP lineup | Y! cashFD GPP | FD cash | DK GPPDK cash | Values | Stacks
DFS lineup builder

Week 9 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Quarterback

Fresh off outdueling Deshaun Watson in the late-afternoon slot, Russell Wilson ($7,300) should go high owned even as the most expensive active QB on slate. ... Even after the Zeke news, Dak Prescott ($6,700) stands a good chance at hitting double-digit ownership in a game with the week's high Vegas point total. We've seen the ceiling with Zeke there.

No one's touching Marcus Mariota ($6,000) against Baltimore, even healthy coming off a bye at home with his alpha receiver back. The Ravens' dominance of bad quarterbacks this year should keep Mariota among the lowest-owned starting quarterbacks. ... Jared Goff ($5,500) gets a Giants defense that just suspended its most important player, but the Rams are favored with a low game total, so a run-heavy approach is widely anticipated.

Week 9 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) is apparently not suspended this week -- at least last I checked three seconds ago. So, safe to assume everyone's jamming Zeke, as has shown to be a lock in any slate without Le'Veon Bell. ... Kareem Hunt ($8,600) and Mark Ingram ($7,600) should also challenge for top chalk with workhorse roles, both against defenses in the top 10 for most DK points allowed to RBs.

Devonta Freeman ($6,600) topped 16 DK points in each of his Carolina tilts last year, but this Panthers defense has been the third stingiest for running backs. He'll probably be the one single-digit owned RB above $6K and might not even get five percent. ... DeMarco Murray ($5,400) faces a Ravens defense allowing the third-most rush yards per game and 10th-most rush yards per play, yet Tennessee's struggles before to the bye left a bad taste and should cap him at low ownership.

Week 9 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Receiver

Since the people are on Russ, the people will be on his pass-catchers, as well, starting with Doug Baldwin ($6,900) at sub-$7K. ... Again, Zeke doesn't mean the Dak-Dez stacks won't be all over. KC owns the most generous defense for opposing receivers in DraftKings scoring, and Dez Bryant ($6,400) stands as good a chance at chalk as anyone at the position.

Now the Watson fallout. UFCollective has both DeAndre Hopkins ($9,200) and Will Fuller ($7,000) close to 10 percent, going in the medium-owned range. ... A true contrarian play this week will more likely be Alshon Jeffery ($5,300). While his price adjusts for the tough matchup, people will fade anyone the possibility of seeing too much of Aqib Talib.

Week 9 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Tight End

Jimmy Graham ($5,000) popped off in that Texans matchup and could top 20 percent ownership this week. UFCollective has Graham ahead of the pack for the chalk play at tight end. ... Evan Engram ($5,600) should get plenty of run, as well, dominating the Giants receiving market share since the injuries hit.

Travis Kelce ($6,700) gets a piece of that KC-DAL total, but the Cowboys limit TEs and he could go medium-owned. ... UFCollective projects Cameron Brate ($4,500) for less than five percent owned against a Saints D with that dreaded red OPRK matchup for TEs. Brate has hit double-digit DK points in six straight weeks, while alpha WR Mike Evans could get Pro Football Focus' top-graded corner in Marshawn Lattimore. 

Thomas Emerick