The Dak-Dez stacks will be out in DraftKings this week. This Sunday will also give us a chance to gauge the "Hundley Effec"t in both ownership and production.
We'll glean UFCollective ownership projections in analyzing narratives as we anticipate the right mix of chalk, contarian, and everything in between for NFL DFS Week 7.
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WEEK 7 DFS:
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Week 7 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Quarterback
It's lost on no one that the Niners allow a 300-yard passer pretty much every week, rankings No. 3 in total DraftKings points allowed to quarterbacks. It makes sense that UFCollective's Friday release projects Dak Prescott ($7,300) as the highest-owned quarterback on the slate. ... At a much lower price, Tyrod Taylor ($5,100) could near double-digit ownership with his own gold matchup hosting Tampa.
Josh McCown ($5,200) topped 3X value in consecutive weeks and gets a poor Dolphins secondary, yet he should still go contrarian because Jets. ... Not the case for C.J. Beathard ($4,900), as a Kyle Shanahan QB is always a decent bet for at least medium-owned in a good matchup. The rookie QB should still avoid chalk, however.
Week 7 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Running Back
The $2K price jump would scare people off Mark Ingram ($6,700) if he didn't just put up 34 points. He's priced below C.J. Anderson ($7,200), so Ingram's going chalk and CJ's going basically invisible. ... Jerick McKinnon ($6,300) fared well, though UFCollective projects a major regression in ownership from last week in a game with a much lower Vegas total.
Pittsburgh just shut down Kareem Hunt in the run game, so Joe Mixon ($5,000) probably caps at medium-owned despite mint price for around 20 touches. ... Jordan Howard ($6,400) gets the red OPRK eighth next to his name and should go contrarian, even though the Panthers won't have Luke Kuechly.
Week 7 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Receiver
Dez Bryant ($7,500) gets a juicy matchup in San Fran, so the Dak-Dez stacks will be all over the place. ... UFCollective's keen on Michael Thomas ($7,500) challenging Dez for top chalk, and the people do love their GB oppo receivers.
Gauging the Hundley Effect will be challenge heading into Week 7. Davante Adams ($5,800) saw more work and gets a cheaper price than Jordy Nelson ($6,800), so he should edge Jordy in ownership. Both probably avoid chalk, though Randall Cobb ($5,300) has been quieter of recent and may stand a better bet at contrarian.
Week 7 NFL DFS Ownership Projections: Tight End
UFCollective doesn't project any real runaways in TE ownership for Week 7. Matchups and recent target volume to line up for Delanie Walker ($5,800) and Kyle Rudolph ($3,800) to at least sniff double-digit ownership.
Ed Dickson ($3,500) crashed back to Earth in Week 6 and should go completely abandoned, though his volume of routes run and air yards present a high ceiling with Cam Newton slinging it, even in the absence of major negative game script. ... Positive game script evaporated Tyler Higbee ($2,700) last week and should cap his ownership in the low single digits.