Week 5 FanDuel, DraftKings Picks: Best sleepers, advice, strategy for NFL DFS lineups

Luke Kasdan

Week 5 FanDuel, DraftKings Picks: Best sleepers, advice, strategy for NFL DFS lineups image

Week 5 features a 12-game main NFL DFS slate with only two games in the 4 p.m. ET window. It looks like we can expect daily fantasy football ownership concentrated around a handful of games -- Atlanta at Houston, Tampa Bay at New Orleans, Arizona at Cincinnati, Denver at Chargers and Green Bay at Dallas -- so lower-priced value sleepers won’t just be vital to helping you pay up for the studs you covet, but also a way to differentiate on what might be a very chalky slate.

As of Tuesday, we don’t currently have a lot Wayne Gallman or Daniel Jones type plays to target (i.e. players stepping into a full-time roles at both a great price and a great matchup), but we've still identified a few players at each position to consider.

Before breaking down the top Week 5 value plays, here's your weekly reminder that this analysis is provided by the experts at RotoQL. Find out why 100,000 DFS players trust RotoQL to build lineups. Optimize, find value plays, and increase your chances of cashing today

WEEK 5 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP

NFL DFS Picks Week 5: QB sleepers, values

Andy Dalton, Bengals vs. Cardinals (DraftKings $5,700 | FanDuel $7,500)  

After 16 years wandering the football wilderness with Marvin Lewis as their head coach, the Bengals finally got a new leader this season. First-time head coach Zac Taylor has installed an aggressive aerial assault that’s seen Dalton throw at least 36 passes in each of Cincinnati's first four contests. 

Now Dalton gets to face the Cardinals, of the few teams in the NFL that plays at a faster pace than the Bengals, meaning we can expect even more plays and thus more pass attempts than usual from the Red Rifle. The Bengals are early 3.5-point home favorites in a game that’s tied for the second highest consensus total on the slate. 

Dalton’s been eerily consistent throughout his career, posting nearly identical stat lines at home and the road, but he’s been significantly better over the course of his career against unfamiliar opponents. Dalton owns a significantly better completion percentage, average yardage, and quarterback ratings against the NFC foes. Factor in the fact that Arizona has allowed the most DraftKings points to quarterbacks on the slate (26.28 per game) and that Monday night’s woeful performance will likely depress his ownership, and Dalton looks like one of the most appealing tournament options on the slate.

Chase Daniel, Bears vs. Raiders (DraftKings $4,800 | FanDuel $6,500)  

Mitchell Trubisky seems to have failed to make a leap in his third NFL season that would vault the Bears and their elite defense into Super Bowl contenders, and now he’s out with a shoulder injury. But Chicago’s in a much better position than it might appear on the surface. Career backup Chase Daniel is 32 and will be making just his fifth career start in his 10 NFL season, but in some ways he may be better suited to helm the Bears offense than the more talented Trubisky. Daniel has spent seven of the past eight seasons as a well-paid back-up in the Andy Reid scheme for Reid and his disciples (Doug Pedersen and Matt Nagy), so he’s likely more familiar with the scheme better than some of Chicago’s offensive assistants.

Daniel was surprisingly good in relief of Trubisky against a Vikings defense that ranks 16th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and now he gets a week to prepare for a Raiders defense that’s 27th against the pass in DVOA and allowing the eighth-most DraftKings points per game to QBs. Oakland has the No. 3 run defense according to DVOA, so this matchup sets up for Daniel to throw the ball a lot.

As early five-point road favorites, Daniel is one of the best points-per-dollar options on the slate. With multiple weapons at his disposal (Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Taylor Gabriel), Daniel’s low salary allows you to pay up for elite options at nearly every other position and makes him an interesting target in all formats.

WEEK 5 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Week 5 DraftKings, FanDuel Picks: RB sleepers, values

Ronald Jones, Buccaneers at Saints (DraftKings $4,600 | FanDuel $5,900)  

Week 4 looks to be a week you want to spend up at running back, but if you’re looking to move off the chalk in a large-field GPP or looking for a low-owned option with a high ceiling to make a game stack work, Jones is incredibly enticing.

In his second season out of USC, Jones has the reputation of being a draft bust, but Jones has been Pro Football Focus’ top-rated running back over the first four games of the season.

While in a timeshare with Peyton Barber, Jones made a compelling case for lead-back status with a 15.2 DraftKings-point performance against the Rams in Week 3. He’s forced a missed tackle every 0.26 touches (sixth best in the NFL), averaged 5.3 yards per carry, and has six rushes of 10-plus yards on just 31 carries.

Jones is underpriced considering he’s in a game with the second highest total on the slate and is an incredibly attractive GPP dart despite the Saints’ superlative run defense. 

Jaylen Samuels, Steelers vs. Ravens (DraftKings $4,100 | FanDuel $5,000)  

Samuels garnered a lot of buzz in the offseason as being a significant part of the Steelers’ offensive plans, but that didn’t materialize in the first three games as Pittsburgh stumbled to an 0-3 start. That changed on Monday, as the former NC State multi-purpose back had a great game against the Bengals on national TV. Running, catching and even throwing his way to a slate-changing 23.5 DraftKings points, the Steelers made it clear that Samuels will be a factor in their offense moving forward.

Pittsburgh will face a Baltimore defense allowing 28.62 DraftKings points per game to running backs (the fourth-highest mark on the main slate), so Samuels has major point-per-dollar upside. His prowess in the pass game is a plus in a game that projects to have negative game script with the Steelers early 3.5-point home dogs.

Samuel is a GPP-only play, but his low salary and multiple means of production make him a lottery ticket that could pay off greatly.

WEEK 5 PPR RANKINGS: Running backWide receiver | Tight end

FanDuel, DraftKings Picks Week 5: WR sleepers, values

Courtland Sutton, Broncos at Chargers (DraftKings $4,900 | FanDuel $5,700)  

The Broncos travel to the Chargers as early six-point road dogs, so they’re likely to be in a negative game script with a lot of pass attempts to go around.

Sutton, the second year receiver from SMU, has emerged as Denver’s 1A receiver and may get a favorable matchup with top Chargers corner Casey Hayward at risk of missing a second straight game due to a game injury. 

Sutton’s displayed an immediate connection with Joe Flacco, averaging 17 DraftKings points per game on an average of a 7.8 targets. If Desmond King locks down Emmanuel Sanders in the slot, Sutton could have an absolute monster game against the Chargers' backup defensive backs. He’s firmly in the tournament mix, but Sutton would merit serious cash game consideration if Hayward can’t play. 

MORE WEEK 5 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup builder

Will Fuller, Texans vs. Falcons (DraftKings $4,500 | FanDuel $5,700)  

Fuller is at home against an Atlanta team that has the offensive firepower to turn this game into a shootout. Fuller is getting the targets (5.8 a game) and air yards (a career best 17.3 aDOT) we look for in a receiver, but his price is reflective of his mediocre results rather than his skills and opportunity.

While the narrative is that his upside has been demolished by the Texans’ acquisition of Kenny Stills, Fuller absolutely has the volume of high-level chances to put 30 DraftKings points on the board, and one of these weeks he’s going to help win someone a million dollars.

Fuller’s strictly a tournament option due to a 61-percent catch rate, the low-percentage route tree he runs, and the looming presence of 'Nuk Hopkins, but his ceiling is too high to not get some shares at this deeply discounted price.

BetQL, RotoQL’s sister product, simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day and meaningful team trends. Check it out here!

Week 5 NFL DFS Picks: TE sleepers, values

Jimmy Graham, Packers at Cowboys (DraftKings $4,300 | FanDuel $5,500)  

Graham has had two good games and two no-shows this season, but with Davante Adams (toe) likely to miss this Sunday’s showdown with the Cowboys in Jerry’s World, it looks to be the right time to hop on the Graham train.

Graham’s targets by week aren’t terribly exciting (5, 1, 1, 9), but the absence of Adams would mean nine more targets to go around. With Dallas allowing the sixth-most DraftKings points to TEs on the slate (14.8), Aaron Rodgers’ most experienced target makes for a great low-owned GPP option in Sunday’s hammer game.

Tyler Eifert, Bengals vs. Cardinals (DraftKings $3,300 | FanDuel $4,600)  

Despite rumblings that Arizona was working on new ways to defend the tight end position with Buddha Baker assuming many of DJ Swearinger’s coverage responsibilities, Will Dissly made it four monster tight end performances in as many weeks against the Cardinals, and I intend to keep pressing this advantage until Kliff Kingsbury’s team shows me they can defend the position.

The questions surrounding Eiftert have always been about health rather than talent, and with the Notre Dame grad seeing five targets in three of the Bengals first four games, it’s safe to assume he’s going to be involved. If John Ross misses Sunday’s game (he left Monday night’s contest early), there would be even more targets available for Eifert.

If it becomes clear Eifert will garner heavy or moderate ownership in GPPs, I’ll likely pivot to Auden Tate. Tate’s a second year receiver out of Florida State who has the size (and lack of speed) to exploit the same mismatches as tight ends. He’s a sure-handed pass-catcher who’s seen 16 targets over the past two games and has a salary of $3,500 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel.

WEEK 5:
Top waiver pickups | FAAB planner | Trade valuesSnap counts

Week 5 NFL DFS values: D/ST sleepers

Cincinnati Bengals, Bengals vs. Cardinals (DraftKings $2,500 | FanDuel $3,700)  

While I’m listing the Bengals due to their being home favorites and the cheaper option on DraftKings, both of them and the Cardinals are incredibly appealing value options.

Arizona and Cincinnati are the first and the fifth fastest offenses on the Sunday slate, so this game will feature a lot of plays. Both teams throw the ball a ton (Kyler Murray is averaging 42.3 attempts a game while Andy Dalton is slinging it 41 times a contest) behind bad offensive lines.

The Bengals are the second-most generous offense on the slate, giving defenses 12.3 fantasy points a game. The Cardinals give up the sixth-most points a game to fantasy defenses at 10.

Luke Kasdan