As we get more matchup numbers and see how each team is divvying up touches, it's becoming easier to spot potential busts before they happen. Notice we didn't say it was "easy," just that it's getting a little easier. Surprises still happen every week in the NFL, and any player can still score a short touchdown or rip off one big play despite a matchup that screams "do not start!" We do our best to dodge those landmines in our Week 4 fantasy bust picks, which include Dameon Pierce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Trevor Lawrence, Zay Jones, and Aaron Rodgers.
We all know that even superstars bust from time-to-time (looking at you, Justin Jefferson), but you won't see studs on our list unless we legitimately advise benching them. We focus on players on the start 'em, sit 'em bubble -- not "must-starts" and not players with sub-20-percent ownership levels. We know you can't always afford to bench players on this list (especially when byes kick in and injuries occur), and there are times you don't have the depth to bench these players without taking on even more risk. Lastly, you might just completely disagree with our choices. It's your team, so don't make any moves you can't live with.
We did a good job calling out Raheem Mostert, James Conner, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Mike Gesicki, Albert Okwuegbunam, and the Giants' D/ST ahead of time last week, but we whiffed on our WR picks and a couple of our D/STs were better than expected, too. We'll continue to study the numbers and sharpen our picks going forward.
WEEK 4 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Start 'em, sit 'em
We'll try to keep the good times going with our Week 4 bust picks.
Week 4 Fantasy Busts: Running backs
Miles Sanders, Eagles vs. Jaguars (Vinnie Iyer). He’s suddenly become volume and TD dependent. He's also hurt by Jalen Hurts' passing and pilfering the key red-zone rushing work.
Dameon Pierce, Texans vs. Chargers (Nick Musial). Pierce finally reached paydirt for the Texans in Week 3 and has seen his usage ramp up heavily after Week 1. Unfortunately for Pierce, he looks to be in line for a lower fantasy point output in a game where the Texans likely employ a negative game script as five-point home underdogs. Pierce is the Texans’ primary early-down RB, but he doesn’t have a role on passing downs and in two-minute situations. Look for Rex Burkhead to be more of a factor this week as Pierce fails to eclipse double-digit fantasy points.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs @ Buccaneers (Matt Lutovsky). Edwards-Helaire has managed to put up decent numbers in each of the first three games, but with just 22 total carries, he's definitely been fortunate. Last week, he finished with zero rushing yards and the same amount of carries (7) as Jerick McKinnon. There's little reason to trust CEH, even in PPR leagues, against a Bucs' defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to RBs.
WEEK 4 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kicker
Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Broncos (Iyer). Seeing a Denver pass rush and good coverage won’t be helpful to him getting back on track, even at home where he tends to play better.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars @ Eagles (Musial). Lawrence enters Week 4 after two impressive performances against the Colts and Chargers, scoring 20-plus fantasy points in both contests. Replicating that type of output against a well-rounded Eagles defense will be tough, as Philadelphia’s defense sports PFF’s fifth-highest defensive grade (75.4). Their ability to get Lawrence under pressure spells trouble, as he hasn’t fared well under pressure this season. Lawrence has been pressured on 29.3 percent of his dropbacks, completing 12-of-30 passes with a 49.3 passer rating.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Patriots (Lutovsky). Rodgers finished with a respectable 250-yard, two-TD game against the Bucs last week, but the fact that's viewed as a "success" doesn't say much for his fantasy ceiling right now. The Patriots are a similarly tough matchup. Yes, Lamar Jackson went off against them, but that was mostly thanks to rushing yards and short TDs. He only managed 218 passing yards, and given Green Bay's new offensive style, it's unlikely Rodgers will have many more.
WEEK 4 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kicker
Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts: Wide receivers
Zay Jones, Jaguars @ Eagles (Iyer). Christian Kirk will be fine because Jacksonville can move him around and get a spot in the slot, but Jones’ value will probably be killed by Darius Slay.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders @ Cowboys (Musial). Samuel’s been arguably the best waiver wire pickup at the WR position in the early season, but he could very well put up a dud in Week 4. Dan Quinn has the Cowboys' defense playing in sync, and their defensive line should feast against Carson Wentz and company. Samuel’s averaged 10 targets per game to begin the season, but look for that number to drop this Sunday against a formidable Dallas secondary.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders @ Cowboys (Lutovsky). Dotson crashed back to Earth last week, catching just two-of-eight targets for 10 yards. The targets were a season high, but they mostly came in garbage time. Dotson is clearly the No. 3 receiver on this team, and against a top-five pass defense like Dallas, he's not a high-percentage option.
WEEK 4 DFS: Best values | Best stacks
Week 4 Fantasy Football Busts: Tight ends
Gerald Everett, Chargers @ Texans (Iyer). It seems like he could do some good work in this matchup, but this should be a wide receiver and Austin Ekeler game.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers vs. Jets (Musial). While Freiermuth's skill set warrants him as a top-10 TE, Matt Canada, and the Mitchell Trubisky-led offense leave a lot to be desired. Pittsburgh's offense ranks 31st in yards per play (4.7), and scoring 20-plus points in a game is a challenge. Freiermuth was on his way to posting a goose egg in the Steelers' Week 3 loss to the Browns before some late catches, and while it's highly unlikely he ends the week with zero fantasy points, he'll likely underwhelm for fantasy owners if he's kept out of the end zone for a second-straight week.
Tyler Higbee, Rams @ 49ers (Lutovsky). Higbee has been one of the few reliable, high-target TEs in the early going, but the 49ers TE defense is the best in the game. He scored three TDs in two games against San Francisco last year, so here's betting the Niners will focus on taking him out of the Rams' attack.
WEEK 4 DFS LINEUPS: FanDuel | DraftKings
Week 4 Fantasy Busts: Defenses
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jaguars (Iyer). Doug Pederson will come to town and keep scheming up good offense, so the Eagles’ upside will be limited against a coach who knows them well.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Bills (Musial). Despite the Bills scoring just 17 points in their Week 3 loss to the Dolphins, the offense didn’t really skip a beat, running 51 more offensive plays than Miami and accumulating 285 more yards. Look for the Bills to light up the scoreboard in the game with the highest over/under (51.5).
Buffalo Bills vs. Ravens (Lutovsky). The Bills' secondary continues to be besieged by injuries (Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer), but even more worrisome is Baltimore's machine-like offense. Even if Buffalo slows down Lamar Jackson, it's unlikely it coaxes many turnovers or keeps the Ravens under 17 points. As tough as it is to bench a D/ST like Buffalo, it's probably the smart play this week.
