We're almost to Week 4 of the fantasy baseball season, and the sample sizes are getting a little bigger. Finding players worth picking up from the waiver wire for your fantasy team, at least for the short term, is becoming a little clearer. Injuries have helped some players see more time than expected (Brando Lowe), while others are simply hitting or pitching better than before (Dan Vogelbach). Either way, you need to be looking at a variety of factors -- and you need to act fast.
Because there are so many types and sizes of fantasy baseball leagues, it can be tough to put together a free agent list that can really help the majority of fantasy owners. We tried to cover a variety of players. Some won't be available if you're in a deep league; others will be largely irrelevent if you're in a shallow league. We trust you can discern the difference.
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Week 4 Fantasy Baseball Top Waiver Pickups
Ownership percentage from FantasyPros' consensus rankings
Position eligibility based on Yahoo's default settings
Hitters
1B Dan Vogelbach, Mariners (59.2 percent owned) — The 250-pound slugger has quickly become one of Seattle’s best hitters this year, crushing six home runs in his first 13 games. He wasn’t on many radars entering the season, but this stretch makes him an intriguing option for fantasy owners needed more pop and an extra first base or utility bat. The advanced metrics indicate Vogelbach may be for real. His batted-ball profile, which is known to be predictive of future success even in small sample sizes, jumps off the chart. He’s in the 99th percentile in exit velocity, 87th percentile in expected batting average, and 92nd percentile in expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast. In other words, while he likely won’t hit .341 the whole season, he could finish around .280 with 25 home runs. That kind of production would make him a solid 1B, so you should pick him up if he’s still available.
2B/OF Brandon Lowe, Rays (33.8) — Tampa Bay has so many similar middle infielders that it was unclear before the season who might emerge to control playing time at second base. So far, Lowe has been the most impressive option there, building on a sneaky good rookie year by hitting five home runs and swiping two bases in his first 17 games. Lowe hit well in college at Maryland at every level of the minor leagues. He was a third-round draft pick in 2015 and popped 28 HRs between the majors and minors last season. All together, there is plenty of reason to think he’ll keep on rolling.
OF Franmil Reyes, Padres (27.4) — Reyes should be owned in far more leagues given his ability to hit for plus-power from an outfield spot. His power is legit, and a disappointing batting average to this point is almost certain to improve. That’s because he has a batting average on balls in play of .189 to this point, meaning he’s largely been unlucky. Expect a hot stretch to come soon. Like Vogelbach, Reyes hits the ball extremely hard, ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity. He also drilled 16 home runs in just 87 games in 2018, proof his underlying numbers can translate to in-game production.
2B/SS Garrett Hampson, Rockies (25.2) -- Hampson was a popular preseason sleeper who started the year with playing time concerns and couldn't hit when he was in the lineup. He started to turn things around recently, posting a seven-game hitting streak from April 9-16 and scoring five runs with a homer and a steal in that span. However, his uptick in production coincides with the returns of David Dahl and Ryan McMahon, so playing time could once again be a problem. The Rockies have a highly favorable May schedule that includes 17 home games and series in hitters parks in Philadelphia, Boston, and Milwaukee, but Hampson will have to keep hitting to stay in the lineup. He's worth a speculative add if you need steals, but he's not a must-have at this point. -- Matt Lutovsky
1B/3B Hunter Dozier, Royals (24.9) -- The 27-year-old looks to be on his way to a post-hype breakout, posting a .279/.366/.557 line through the first 17 games. Significantly improved K- and BB-rates are certainly helping (and could be due for regression), but Dozier is simply hitting the ball harder. His .286 BABIP is actually below his career mark (.297), so there isn't a big worry there. An interesting note about the righthanded Dozier is that he's always been better vs. righthanded pitching, slugging 162 points higher against them in his career. Regardless, he's a nice player to own in deeper leagues that have a CI spot. -- Matt Lutovsky
OF Alex Verdugo, Dodgers (13.3) -- Verdugo has done about all he can in the minors (.309/.367/.444), and the 22-year-old lefty has more than proved he's ready for the big leagues in his first 20 games this year (.364/.378/682). Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Dodgers have a stacked offense, so finding an everyday spot for Verdugo will be difficult without a long-term injury to someone else. As it is, Verdugo is playing more often than not, which makes him worth an add in deep leagues. His biggest drawback is his lack of walks (and currently high .382 BABIP), which could lead to a slump and more off-days, but the outlook is strong for this skilled hitter with developing power. -- Matt Lutovsky
3B/SS/OF Scott Kingery, Phillies (13.3) -- Kingery is another post-hype prospect who disappointed last year but has had a nice start in limited playing time this season. The Marwin Gonzalez-like supersub can play virtually anywhere on the diamond, and with SS Jean Segura currently battling a hamstring injury, Kingery has found himself slotted high in the Phillies order most days recently. In 2017, the 24-year-old righthander hit 26 HRs and stole 29 bases in time split almostm evenly between Double- and Triple-A, so he can fill up the stat sheet if he gets the chance. -- Matt Lutovsky
Pitchers
SP Brad Keller, Royals (55.9 percent owned) — As a sinker-first pitcher without many strikeouts, Keller does not have the same upside as Domingo German below. But he also plays in a more pitcher-friendly stadium and threw 140 quality innings in 2018, a track record that suggests he’ll keep a solid ERA and WHIP. Plus, the Royals have little pitching depth, and no matter how many times Keller vacillates between his best and worst forms his place in the rotation should be safe.
SP Domingo German, Yankees (53) — The strikeout rate (10.7 K/9 in his career) and potential to earn double-digit wins on a Yankees team that should offer plenty of run support are enough to grab German, even if he remains mostly unproven at the big league level. He may settle in as a 4.00 ERA type of pitcher, but that’s OK for the back of your fantasy rotation given his other contributions.
SP Touki Toussaint, Braves (41.5) -- One of our preseason sleepers, Toussaint is back up with the big club and in the Braves rotation. He threw six shutout innings in his first appearance, striking out seven and walking only two. Control has been Toussaint's biggest issue -- and will likely continue to be an issue -- but the 22-year-old righty has always been a high-strikeout pitcher. In 32 major league innings between the regular season and playoffs last year, Toussaint struck out 34 and allowed only one homer. He could hurt your WHIP, but everything else should be strong. -- Matt Lutovsky
RP Jeremy Jeffress, Brewers (36.2) -- Jeffress (shoulder) has made two scoreless appearances since returning from a season-opening DL stint, both in the eighth innings of games the Brewers were trailing. He walked one and struck out one and seems to be progressing toward a ninth-inning role. All signs from the Brewers indicate they want Josh Hader available for a multi-inning role earlier in games, and Jeffress proved last year he can excel as a closer. Grab him now before it becomes official.
SP Caleb Smith, Marlins (24.9) -- Smith was excellent in his first three starts (2.65/0.88, 3.22 FIP, 11.1 K/9), and he now has a 10.1 K/9 ratio in his 28 big league appearances (21 starts). His .194 BABIP will soon normalize (and some medciore to bad starts while it does), but the 27-year-old lefty clearly has a lot of upside. His win potential isn't high, but he's still well worth picking up in all formats. -- Matt Lutovsky
RP Diego Castillo, Rays (24.6) -- Castillo picked up the save earlier this week when Jose Alvarado pitched the eighth inning, and it wouldn't be a surprise if we saw that happen more. Both pitchers have been locked in this year, allowing one run between them, but with Alvardo being a lefty, it's possible Tampa could opt for him earlier in games against tough lefthanded hitters. Alvarado still has more value, not only because he's more likely to get saves but also because he has higher upside, but in deeper leagues, Castillo could be a nice help in ERA and WHIP while chipping in wins and saves from time to time. -- Matt Lutovsky
SP Jeff Samardzija, Giants (12.9) — In deeper leagues especially, Samardzija makes for an interesting speculative add. He hasn’t been very good or healthy for years, but his start to 2019 has been promising. In four outings, Shark has a 2.91 ERA and is striking out more than eight batters per nine innings. If he really is getting back to his vintage self, he would become the rare pitching asset regularly pitching more than six innings, thus increasing his total strikeout volume.