Week 4 NFL DFS fortunes hinge on how people approach high Vegas totals like Saints-Giants -- or any game involving Atlanta and a dome. We'll examine daily fantasy football narratives that affect ownership on the DraftKings main slate, utilizing UFCollective actuarial-based projections.
Finding the right mix of roster rates is key in lineup construction for tournaments and GPPs. Let's parse the Sunday 12-game main slate at DraftKings.
Week 4 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 4 DFS Ownership: Quarterback
UFCollective places Drew Brees ($6,600) and Philip Rivers ($6,500) ahead of the pack at double-digit ownership on the Sunday main slate. Their teams boast the No. 1 and No. 3 implied totals as of Friday, though theoretically a scratch from Keenan Allen (questionable) could affect that.
Andy Dalton ($5,400) throws in a dome against a struggling defense in a game with the highest Vegas over-under on slate. However, he'll probably still go medium-to-contrarian owned after throwing four picks in Carolina last Sunday.
WEEK 4 DFS CASH LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 4 DFS Ownership: Running Back
Alvin Kamara ($9,600) and Melvin Gordon ($8,300) see three-down work in humming offenses that enter Week 4 favored. Both have ripped 3.5X value multiple times already this season and will get people to pay the premium.
David Johnson ($6,600) likely gets the fade after opening the season without even hitting a single 2.5X value. The hapless nature of Arizona's offense should keep him contrarian, even with Josh Rosen taking the reins to shake things up.
WEEK 4 DFS GPP LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 4 DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Odell Beckham ($8,700) could pull ownership from Michael Thomas ($8,700) as their teams face off in the Meadowlands with the No. 2 Vegas game total on slate. DKers taking their one swing at a premium receiver could favor the $400 cheaper of the two.
Tyler Lockett ($5,100) may dip well below five-percent owned with Doug Baldwin expected to return. As the established deep threat playing with Russell Wilson, the high upside remains for Lockett just as the whole offense benefits from Baldwin.
MORE WEEK 4 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
NFL Week 4 DFS Ownership: Tight End
Rob Gronkowski ($7,000) and Zach Ertz ($6,200) should get plenty of run in a Kelce-free slate. You can bet the masses will go all-in on the Gronk-Brady rebound at home against Miami.
Jimmy Graham ($4,500) probably goes low-owned along with all Packers given their matchup with a Bills defense that just thrashed Minny, though the perceived affect of Aaron Rodgers' knee on the offense may factor even larger in limiting roster rate.