The Week 15 pre-AFC title showdown between New England and Pittsburgh (just saying that to tilt Jags Twitter) will make NFL DFS contrarian plays hard to find at Heinz Field. However, ownership could also prove more flat than usual with some studs there priced way up.
UFCollective will help us break down ownership narratives with their actuarial-based projections. A palatable mix of chalk and contrarian helps entries surface atop a large tournament/GPP field.
For DraftKings' 11-game featured slate in NFL Week 15.
WEEK 15 DFS:
Yahoo GPP lineup | Y! cash | DK cash | DK GPP | FD GPP | Stacks | Values | DFS lineup builder
NFL Week 15 DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,300) has come through at a bargain in consecutive weeks and that goodwill should carry the G crew as his price rises, though still at mid-tier cost. ... Nick Foles ($5,500) will replace Garoppolo as the erstwhile basement new-start play in an enticing matchup with the formerly scary Giants defense. UFCollective projects both for top-five owned at near 10 percent.
Contrarian play is the homeostasis for Joe Flacco ($5,100), and that should remain the cast at a sliver above $5K. Cleveland just helped DKers hit the nuts with Brett Hundley and also allow the fewest yards per rush, so a funnel matchup that could get Flacco to 4X value.
NFL Week 15 DFS Ownership: Running Back
Since he was priced before shredding the Patriots Monday night, Kenyan Drake ($5,800) will get plenty of run on the main slate. UFCollective projects his ownership well ahead of the RB pack, even making secondary chalk out of regulars Le'Veon Bell ($9,300) and the Saints' Alvin Kamara ($8,600)-Mark Ingram ($8,200) combo.
Samaje Perine ($4,800) sees a major price drop after exiting with ailments for large chunks in two of the past three games. He's still managed to ranking eighth in carries and 13th in RB catches over the past three weeks. ... Latavius Murray ($4,900) could likewise go low-owned with a high weekly workload, save for this past Sunday.
NFL Week 15 DFS Ownership: Receiver
Patriots-Steelers boasts by far the week's highest Vegas total. Meanwhile, Brandin Cooks ($7,100) gets a $900 discount against a defense ripped by Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Brett Hundley in consecutive weeks. UFCollective projects him for double-digit ownership, though Dede Westbrook ($5100) may stand a better chance of threatening Antonio Brown ($9100) as the most chalk play.
Jamison Crowder ($5,600) could get faded along with all Washington players returning home after road smackdowns from Dallas (surprising) and San Diego (more predictable). Fortunately for him, Patrick Peterson typically doesn't follow into the slot. ... Robert Woods ($5,700) assumed the Rams' alpha WR1 role before injury but could get caution from DKers until they see him on field.
NFL Week 15 DFS Ownership: Tight End
Rob Gronkowski ($7,300) probably hits double-digit ownership in his return, even at the highest tag on slate. ... The injury-induced QB change in Philly probably won't knock Zach Ertz ($6,000) out of relative chalk due to his massive price deflation, though some would-be Tier I shares could funnel over to Gronk.
Vernon Davis ($3,900) has busted in enough high-owned spots to keep people away. Everyone remembers Thanksgiving at the Giants. Yet with six double-digit DK games on the season, sub-$4K is intriguing for a contrarian who has 4X value well within play.