In the final weeks of the fantasy football regular season, it can be beneficial to go for broke and roll out fairly volatile, high-ceiling players with "boom" potential. If you're in a fringe playoff spot, taking a risk on potential breakouts like Kyren Williams, Taylor Heinicke, and Latavius Murray over bigger-name players could pay big dividends. All three make our Week 12 fantasy sleepers list and could help lead you to a "W" this week.
Please remember that any of the sleeper picks below could bust this week. We always take some chances with our sleepers because highlighting a bunch of highly owned "must-starts" doesn't do anyone any good. You probably shouldn't start the players below over proven stars, but if your roster is full of studs, then you don't need our help anyway. If nothing else, our sleeper picks can help you spot DFS values, as the prices of these players should be affordable.
We had a hard time predicting breakout candidates last week, but we did hit on effective performances from Isiah Pacheco, Marcus Mariota, Kenny Pickett, Washington's D/ST, and the Jets' D/ST. We'll need to step our game up and do our best to spot this week's potential surprises and breakouts.
WEEK 12 FANTASY PICKS: Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
Let's get to it with our Week 12 sleeper picks.
Week 12 Fantasy Sleepers: Running backs
James Cook, Bills @ Lions (Sloan Piva). Cook was heavily involved in the Bills' 31-23 Week 11 win over the Browns, and it wasn't just mop-up garbage-time touches. The rookie had 13 total opportunities behind Devin Singletary and turned 11 carries into 86 yards. Detroit has allowed the most rushing TDs and the second-most rushing yards to RBs, so Cook is a sneaky-good Turkey Day flex play.
Michael Carter, Jets vs. Bears (Vinnie Iyer). Chicago cannot slow down the run, and his quickness can give its defense problems as New York leans on its top remaining back more to get a win.
Latavius Murray, Broncos @ Panthers (Matt Lutovsky). Murray was already the "co-leader" in Denver’s backfield before Melvin Gordon lost another goal-line fumble. Now, with Gordon out the door and Chase Edmonds (ankle) on the shelf, Murray is the clear RB1. He's a safe bet for 15-plus touches, giving him a lot of upside against a Carolina defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to RBs.
BONUS: Kyren Williams, Rams @ Chiefs (Lutovsky). Williams received just seven carries to Cam Akers' 14 last week, but he saw a big uptick in touches and snaps from the week before. In fact, he played 10 more snaps than Akers and had two more targets. With Darrell Henderson Jr. gone, it's likely that Williams' role will expand, and in a game where L.A. figures to be trailing, he could easily outproduce Akers thanks to more passing-down work. Williams can ride garbage-time production and a favorable matchup to a flex-worthy finish.
WEEK 12 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Quarterbacks
Taylor Heinicke, Commanders vs. Falcons (Piva). I'm not dismayed by Heinicke's inability to put up passing TDs the past two weeks — Philly has one of the best pass defenses in football, and Houston is insanely easy to run on. The fifth-year QB should see some positive regression this week, as the Falcons rank among the 10 worst pass defenses in all fantasy formats. They have also allowed the second-most first downs (22.1 per game), the fourth-most passing yards (266.2 ypg), and the sixth-most points (24.9 ppg). Show 'em the Heinie!
Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Bengals (Iyer). He’ll need to play off the run more and pass more aggressively against opposite Joe Burrow, and it’s nice the game is at home vs. a weakened pass defense.
Matt Ryan, Colts vs. Steelers (Lutovsky). Ryan is still a relatively low-ceiling QB, but both his floor and modest ceiling get higher against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is allowing the sixth-most FPPG to QBs, so a 250-yard, multi-TD performance is certainly in play.
WEEK 12 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Wide receivers
Zay Jones, Jaguars @ Ravens (Piva). Jones falls under the radar a bit after Jacksonville's Week 11 bye, but astute fantasy owners remember he caught eight-of-10 targets for 68 yards in Week 10 at Kansas City. That was Jones' third game of the season with double-digit targets, his fifth game with at least five catches, and his sixth with at least 40 receiving yards. He makes for a good flex if you're battling injuries at your skill positions — Baltimore has surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards and seventh-most half-PPR points to wideouts this season.
Tyler Boyd, Bengals at Titans (Iyer). He burned them for 67 yards and a TD in the playoffs, and the slot coverage has continued to be an issue this season.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders vs. Falcons (Lutovsky). Dotson has posted just two catches and three targets since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 10, but you’re not playing the rookie receiver for his PPR prowess. With Dotson, it’s all about the big plays and touchdowns, and he got an end-zone target last week. Against a Falcons’ defense allowing the most FPPG to WRs, Dotson has a good chance to ball out as he did early in the season.
WEEK 12 DFS: Best values
Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Tight ends
Foster Moreau, Raiders @ Seahawks (Piva). The Seahawks have gone and done the unthinkable: they have become as bad as Arizona at defending the tight end position. They allow an NFL-high 13.4 standard fantasy points per game, and they have to settle for second-worst in half-PPR and PPR formats. The Island of Foster Moreau has been busy with Darren Waller (hamstring) on the shelf, and that should continue this weekend in Seattle.
Evan Engram, Jaguars vs. Ravens (Iyer). The middle of the field is where Trevor Lawrence will need to work in garbage time, so the trickle down from Christian Kirk will help a healthier Engram.
Noah Fant, Seahawks vs. Raiders (Lutovsky). Fant is seeing his usage ramp up, catching eight-of-10 targets for 130 yards over his past two games. Vegas has been better against TEs lately and was mainly blemished by Travis Kelce’s four scores against it in Week 5, but this is still a slightly favorable matchup. That’s enough for us to trust Fant to have a solid floor with his expanding role.
WEEK 12 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Week 12 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Defense
New York Jets vs. Bears (Piva). The Jets were a good play before Justin Fields' left shoulder injury, but they would be a top-10 play with Fields sidelined.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Rams (Iyer). They might be the highest-scoring defense of the week in this blowout where the pass rush and secondary can go nuts.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Steelers (Lutovsky). Indy has tightened up over the past few weeks, recording nine sacks and three takeaways while allowing 19 offensive points per game over the past three contests. Those aren’t huge numbers, but considering they faced the Pats, Raiders, and Eagles, that’s pretty good. A matchup against a Pittsburgh offense allowing the fourth-most FPPG to D/STs should help the Colts really break out.
