Week 12 is shaping up to be one of my favorite DFS slates of the season. DraftKings nailed their pricing this week, which makes it so that you’re going to have to make some difficult roster decisions. Christian McCaffrey had been an auto-lock play for me the last few weeks, even with his salary pushing over $10,000. However, this week, the decision is much more difficult with players such as Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin all having amazing matchups that could see them go 4-5x their salary expectations.
The Falcons-Bucs matchup is the only game with a total sitting at 50-points or higher, and I expect that game to be extremely popular. I won’t be fading it in any format, but if you are looking for some pivot spots, consider the Panthers-Saints (47 total), Seahawks-Eagles (48 total), or the Cowboys-Patriots (45 total) matchups.
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WEEK 12 DFS LINEUPS:
FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
Week 12 NFL DFS Picks: Top DraftKings stacks for cash games
QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones, Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Ryan and the Falcons have the best matchup possible in the NFL this season against the Buccaneers who have the 31st ranked passing defense. The total for this game is set at 52, the only game on the slate with a total over 50, with Tampa having gone over the total in a league-high 8-of-10 games this season. This matchup should be a goldmine for points from both teams.
Ryan and the Falcons passing attack took their foot off the gas early last week after they got out to a huge lead against the Panthers, but I don’t see this game getting out of hand with Jameis Winston and the Bucs pass-happy offense coming to town. Ryan has attempted 30 or more passes in every game he has started and finished this season. I expect Atlanta to follow the trend that virtually every other team has followed this season when facing Tampa Bay and attempt 5-10 percent more passing plays in this matchup.
I want as much exposure to the Falcons passing game as possible, and Jones is my preferred high-end spend this week and a great stacking option with Ryan in all formats. Jones has been held out of the endzone in every game since Week 3, but a matchup against Tampa is the cure for any statistical ailment for opposing pass-catchers. Jones has absolutely destroyed Tampa in his career, averaging more than one extra reception, 1.2 targets, and almost 30 yards more per game against Tampa than every other team. His numbers in his last five games against the Buccaneers read like something taken straight from a Madden franchise - averaging 12.2 targets, 8.4 receptions, 140 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. We haven’t seen a Julio Jones eruption game this season, and this is the prime spot for it to happen at home against the worst passing defense in the NFL.
This stack is undoubtedly pricey, and it will be hard to fit in Christian McCaffrey into a Ryan/Jones stack, but the upside is just too much for me to ignore for the Falcons in the game.
MORE WEEK 12 DFS: Values | Lineup Builder
RB Alvin Kamara and Saints D/ST, Saints @ Falcons
Alvin Kamara has re-established his elite passing game usage, and he has a prime matchup at home against the Panthers, who have been gashed by all of the elite running backs they have faced this season (sorry Brian Hill). Kamara comes in at a massive price discount from McCaffrey ($2,300 or DraftKings and $2,200 on FanDuel), but has just as much point-per-dollar upside given his role in the passing game - he’s seen 20 targets with a 90 percent catch rate over the last two weeks.
For the stack, we’re going with the Saints DST, who is not only coming off a four turnover week against Tampa Bay but now return home to Superdome to face the Panthers and Kyle Allen, who is coming off of his own four turnover showing. Allen is starting to show some serious cracks in his armor, and it looks like the NFL is starting to figure out his game. This is an incredibly high upside spot for an aggressive defense like the Saints, and they are far and away my favorite spend up option at the position.
WEEK 12 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 12 DraftKings Picks: Best stacks for daily fantasy football GPPs/tournaments
QB Jeff Driskel and WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions
Driskel was the cheap quarterback to play last week, and I’m going right back to him this week on DraftKings at his $5,500 price tag. Driskel doesn’t have the greatest arm talent. However, he is built in the Josh Allen mold with his excellent rushing ability. Driskel has attempted 13 rushes for 88 yards and a touchdown in his two starts this season. This rushing ability boosts both his floor and ceiling projections, and the matchup doesn’t get much better against the Redskins, who made Sam Darnold look like a Pro-Bowl caliber quarterback last week.
I feel perfectly comfortable rostering Driskel by himself in cash games, but for GPPs, I want to stack him with either Golladay or Marvin Jones, both of whom project to be low owned in tournaments. Jones caught two touchdowns last week but has only seen 11 targets in Driskel’s starts this season. Golladay meanwhile has put up two stinkers in a row with Driskel under center, but has a higher target share (14 targets), and has the higher upside at his lowered $6,600 DraftKings price. With so much ownership likely to go towards Julio Jones, the Bucs’ wide receivers, and Odell Beckham, I would expect Golladay’s ownership to be sub-10 percent in all tournaments.
WEEK 12 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
QB Jameis Winston, WR Chris Godwin, WR Scotty Miller, with WR Calvin Ridley, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons
I’ve been stacking the Buccaneers up in tournaments each and every week this season, and despite all of Winston’s flaws, he continues to be an ideal quarterback for fantasy football. Winston is second in the NFL in passing yards this season and has hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings in seven of his last eight games. The Falcons defense has shown huge improvement over the last few weeks, but their talent on that side of the ball is well below average, so I would expect some regression back to their pre-bye levels. Winston has absolutely torched the Falcons in his career, having averaged 346.3 yards over his last three games against them, and he has thrown for at least three touchdowns in each of his previous five meetings with Atlanta.
If Winston is to have one of his typical 300-yard, three-touchdown games against the Falcons, then you’ll likely want to stack him with two of his receivers. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are both great high-end options, and it's a coin flip on which one will have the better game. I’m leaning Godwin here given he runs more routes across the middle than Evans, which has been Atlanta’s weakness this season, but I won’t try to steer anyone off of Evans if that is your preferred route. The secondary option is an interesting one. You can go Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard, but it’s hard to feel good about either of them given tight end usage in Bruce Arians’ offense. A nice punt play is third WR Scottie Miller, who has taken over that role from Breshad Perriman. Miller is built like a slot wide receiver, but Tampa is using him on downfield routes. At only $3,100 on DraftKings, it will only take a 3/50/1-ish line for Miller to smash his value and unlock enough salary for a high-end running back option.
You’re going to want to run any Bucs stack back with a Falcons’ player. I already mentioned Julio Jones, and I’m going to be playing him in plenty of game stacks. However, if you want to save some salary and still have the same point-per-dollar upside, then take a look at Ridley. While Ridley has a very low floor, it’s hard to ignore his upside in this matchup. Ridley went off for 31.3 DK points last week on only eight targets. With Austin Hooper still out and Mohamed Sanu in New England, we can expect Ridley’s targets to hover between 7-10, which is more than enough to smash his value in a matchup with the Buccaneers.
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