Can you really trust Baker Mayfield, Mitchell Trubisky, and Sam Darnold when making your Week 10 NFL picks? Well, it depends on your place in the standings and the setup of your confidence or pick 'em pool, but those three lead teams that the data-driven experts at TeamRankings have identified as being potentially profitable picks. Below, you'll find a breakdown of TeamRankings' advice and tips for Week 10.
As a reminder, TeamRankings is the only site that provides customized picks to maximize your edge in football pools. Last year, 80 percent of their subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick 'em contest.
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Review of last week's picks
Last week, we highlighted three teams that were coming as value as favorites, plus two underdog opportunities. The three slight favorites we highlighted (Cleveland, Oakland, Pittsburgh) went a combined 2-1, with the Browns losing at Denver in a game where they both outgained the Broncos and won the turnover battle (the difference was in the red zone, with the Browns settling for too many field goals).
Meanwhile, the two underdogs we highlighted were Jacksonville and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars bombed in London with Gardner Minshew throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice. But the Chargers dominated the Packers 26-11, outgaining them by 258 yards, in a game where only seven percent of the public picked the Chargers.
Across those five games, the public only averaged 1.8 wins based on pick popularity data, so three wins out of that group was a very positive result for Week 9.
WEEK 10 FANTASY RANKINGS
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 10 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools
Remember, you shouldn't necessarily make all of the picks below (especially the value gambles). The best Week 10 picks for your NFL pool depend on several factors, including rules, size, and prize structure. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends weekly picks for you based on all those factors.
Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data is subject to change between publication and kickoff. For the latest numbers, check our pick 'em picks product, which updates multiple times daily.
Value Favorites
Week 10 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close as you can get to “no-brainer picks” in NFL pick ’em contests, since both win odds and value are on your side. Here are four of them:
Cleveland Browns (vs. Buffalo)
The Browns are a disaster after their loss to Denver on the road and sit at 2-6. The Bills are a feel-good story at 6-2 and are coming off a comfortable win over Washington. But what if I told you that the difference in these two teams, and our perception of them, is almost entirely tied to their vastly different schedules so far?
Buffalo has five wins over the bottom-five teams in our predictive power ratings by an average of 8.8 points. Cleveland has played only one of those teams, beating the Jets by 20. Cleveland, meanwhile, has played four games against the top-six teams in our power ratings (going 1-3) and also played 7-2 Seattle, while the Bills have played only two teams in the top half of our power ratings, losing to both New England and Philadelphia at home.
That's the explanation for why our ratings actually have the dysfunctional Browns slightly higher than the Bills (No. 21 versus No. 24), and why Cleveland, playing at home, is the 2.5-point favorite. The public, though, sees 6-2 versus 2-6 and is taking the Bills 73 percent of the time, a rate higher than a lot of teams that actually are the favorite, including the only undefeated team in the NFL. That means you can get the favored Browns in a great spot, where less than a quarter of the public is picking them.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle)
Speaking of the only undefeated team, it's kind of surprising that you can still get the 49ers at value, but maybe the public has not fully bought in yet. San Francisco is a six-point favorite over Seattle at home on Monday night with win odds of 72 percent. The public does love the plucky Seahawks, who are 7-2 overall and have the current leader for the MVP race in Russell Wilson. The 49ers are being picked 65 percent of the time here, but that is below their actual win odds.
While Seattle has won close games (6-1 in one-score games), the 49ers have dominated. The 49ers have played just three home games so far, and they've won those games by an average of 23.3 points. The value here is just taking the league's only undefeated team -- at home where they have been dominant -- while over one-third of pool entries are picking the upset.
Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit)
This one is the battle of the completely resistible force against the entirely moveable object. The Bears have really struggled on offense, and if you were watching on Sunday, it was hard to miss criticism of just how poorly they look with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Here's a dirty little secret, though: Detroit's defense is not very good and has been squandering a great year from Matthew Stafford. The Lions are 31st in yards allowed.
Chicago is actually the higher rated team in our power ratings, (No. 15, at +0.9, versus No. 22 for Detroit at -1.5) and have the better point differential, plus the game is in Chicago. Our models have the win odds at 60 percent for Chicago, while the public is treating it as a toss-up, taking the Bears just 52 percent of the time, so you can get the favorite here at a good value.
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Minnesota)
Finally, the Cowboys are coming off a Monday Night win over the Giants, but they still providing value at home against the Vikings. Dallas also has win odds of 60 percent for this week's Sunday Night Football game, but the public is taking them at a 55-percent rate. Locking in the Cowboys is another solid value play, and we aren't even making that suggestion based on "Kirk Cousins against a good team in prime time."
Value Gambles
If you're going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward (that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase if your gamble pays off) is as big as possible. If take a bunch of extra risk on a super trendy upset pick, the joke could wind up on you.
The pick below is not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool with lots of games left, the Jets are probably not worth the risk. However, if you're in a single-week pool with a larger number of entries, or if you primarily care about winning weekly prizes, this unpopular underdog has a compelling profile.
New York Jets (vs. New York Giants)
The Battle for the New Jersey Meadowlands is not exactly a must-see matchup this week. The two teams are a combined 3-14 and have been outscored by 194 points on the season. Sure, the Jets look like an embarrassment after losing to the Dolphins last week, but it's not like the Giants have been world beaters. Our predictive power ratings have the Giants at -7.4 points and the Jets at -8.9 points, so the Giants should be the slight favorite in their shared stadium.
And the Giants are a slight favorite, at 2.5 points, with a 55-percent chance of victory. The public, though, is far more down on the Jets and is picking the Giants to win 75 percent of the time. That makes the Jets a decent value gamble in weekly contests in this showcase game.
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Which of these five NFL Week 10 picks should you make?
Once you know the best value opportunities of NFL Week 10, you can increase your odds to win your pool by making educated gambles on them. Maybe you bump up the number of confidence points you assign to a team like Cleveland or San Francisco, or you take a chance on an upset like the Jets.
There are a lot of potential decisions to make, and not all of them will make sense for your specific pool. It takes a lot of data and math to get to the right answer. Fortunately, we've built technology to do all the analytical heavy lifting for you.
Our Football Pick 'em Picks product recommends the best weekly picks for your pool based on all the strategy factors that matter. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it shows you the weekly pick sheet that will maximize your edge.
We invite you to give it (and all our other premium NFL tools) a try. Good luck in your NFL pick 'em contests and office pools this week!