Week 10 Fantasy Busts: David Johnson among risky 'starts'

Billy Heyen

Week 10 Fantasy Busts: David Johnson among risky 'starts' image

When you're looking at our Week 10 fantasy football bust picks, you might find yourself in a pickle. No matter how much you want to sit certain players, you might not have much of a choice. Week 10 features six teams on bye, a high so far this season, so you'll be without a number of choices you might normally have. While you might wish you had an enticing sleeper on your roster to start while sitting a possible bust, that may be out of your control. For example: Can you really sit A.J. Green or David Johnson if they're active this week? (Update: Green is out this week.)

If you're one of the lucky ones, you have options. And if you have options, you might want to consider them over a couple big names in Rams-Steelers, too. Jared Goff and JuJu Smith-Schuster could have rough days ahead. It also might be exciting to pick up a new starting RB in Kalen Ballage and plug him right into your lineup. Just be warned: That dude is terrible at being a running back. Yes, he's probably a top-100 running back in the world. He's just No. 100 and NFL defenses have him totally under wraps.

WEEK 10 NON-PPR RANKINGS
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

But Ballage really is the point we were trying to make in the first paragraph - whether you believe he's a bust or not, our other two bust running backs this week are David Johnson and Chris Carson. Almost no matter what, you're not sitting them for Ballage. It's all relative.

We were pretty spot on with our two Week 9 bust headliners, both future Hall-of-Fame QBs. Neither Tom Brady nor Aaron Rodgers were atrocious, but you definitely could've done better than either. That's especially true of Rodgers, who fell into his trap of late of being efficient (25-of-33) with very little damage (161 yards and one score).

WEEK 10 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPPFD cash | FD GPP

We probably should've avoided picking running back busts altogether. David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs both scored twice, and Kenyan Drake shone in his Cardinals debut. We were more spot on at WR, where Odell Beckham Jr. and Terry McClaurin both struggled. And hey, we even anticipated the Jets' defense struggling a bit against the Dolphins. 

For our Week 10 sleeper picks, click here.

Week 10 Fantasy Busts: Running backs

David Johnson, Cardinals @ Buccaneers (Billy Heyen). The Bucs have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs, and the Cardinals passing offense has struggled on the road. 

Chris Carson, 49ers vs. Seahawks (Vinnie Iyer). You’re still playing him in most leagues, but prepare to be disappointed that he won’t channel Kenyan Drake from Week 9.

Kalen Ballage, Dolphins @ Colts (Matt Lutovsky). Ballage is now Miami’s starting running back, but if you take away one 75-yard run his rookie year, he’s averaged 2.7 yards per carry over his first 70 rushes. This year, he’s averaging just 2.0 ypc on 35 carries. He also can’t catch. So, while he’s in line for 12-15 touches, that really doesn’t mean much unless he happens to fall into the end zone. The same can be said about Gus Edwards (@ Bengals) or Alexander Mattison (@ Cowboys), who can do as much in half the carries. It doesn’t help that the Colts allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game (FPPG) to RBs. 

WEEK 10 PPR RANKINGS: Running backWide receiver | Tight end

Week 10 Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Vikings (Heyen). The Vikings have a pretty average pass defense, and Dak shouldn't have as easy of a go of it than he did against the Giants in Week 9. If the Cowboys know what's good for them, they'll lean on Zeke. 

Kirk Cousins, Vikings @ Cowboys (Iyer). This is prime time against a tough defense in a big NFC game on the road, so you know what tends to happen to Cousins then.

Jared Goff, Rams @ Steelers (Lutovsky). Goff has continued to struggle the road this year (82.8 QB rating, 6:4 TD-to-INT ratio in four games), a trend started last year (82.7, 9:10). The Steelers allow just 14.8 FPPG to QBs, though that number is inflated by big games from Tom Brady and Russell Wilson in Weeks 1 and 2. To make matters worse, Goff isn't expected to have Brandin Cooks (concussion) this week.

MORE WEEK 10:
Waiver pickups | FAAB plannerSnap counts | Trade valuesFantasy playoff SOS

Week 10 Fantasy Football Busts: Wide receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers vs. Rams (Heyen). JuJu is averaging about four catches and 57 yards per game. If anything, against a talented Rams defense and an individual matchup with Jalen Ramsey, he'll put up less than that.

John Brown, Bills @ Browns (Iyer). Cleveland’s cornerbacks are very good, and they tend to play better overall pass defense at home.

A.J. Green, Bengals vs. Ravens (Lutovsky). Green (ankle) hasn't played all year, and while he's the type of receiver who can produce against anyone and with any quarterback, this is a tough spot for him. Ryan Finley is making his first career start, and the Ravens tend to allow a little more damage to secondary receivers. Maybe Green qualifies as that in his first game back, but there's a lot of risk here. (Update: Green missed practiced Wednesday and is considered "day-to-day".)

Josh Gordon, Seahawks vs. 49ers (Lutovsky). It's unclear if Gordon will make his season debut with the Seahawks on Monday night, but if he doesn't, don't take the bait and start him. Not only is it a difficult matchup, but Gordon will also be no higher than third in the pecking order for targets. Give him at least a week.

MORE WEEK 10 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup Builder

Week 10 Fantasy Football Busts: Tight ends

Eric Ebron, Colts vs. Dolphins (Heyen). Ebron will inevitably be on the sideline more than he's on the field, so he really has to take advantage when he gets in. At this point, he's super touchdown dependent, and maybe the Dolphins will carry some momentum into this one off their first win.

Jonnu Smith, Titans vs. Chiefs (Iyer). Delanie Walker might return from the ankle injury, but if not, even in what looks like a good matchup on paper, it's more of a running back early and wide receiver late game for Tennessee's offense.

Mark Andrews, Ravens @ Bengals (Lutovsky). It's tough to sit Andrews this week, we get it, but since the start of Week 3, he's averaging 3.7 catches and 41.7 yards per game and has scored one total touchdown. Prior to last week, he was getting steady targets, but against the Bengals, who, perhaps surprisingly allow just 5.1 FPPG to TEs, he looks like a low-upside play.

Week 10 Fantasy Busts: Defenses

Green Bay Packers vs. Panthers (Heyen). The Packers struggled against a Chargers offense that hadn't been great prior to Week 9. Ze'Darius Smith is dealing with a marijuana citation, and now Christian McCaffrey comes to town. Yuck.

Carolina Panthers @ Packers (Iyer). They’re much weaker defensively on the road, as Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay’s running game will both have considerable clean success.

Chicago Bears vs. Lions (Lutovsky). Over its past four games, Chicago has six sacks (including three games with one or fewer) and three total takeaways while allowing 24.3 offensive points per game. This isn't the same D/ST as last year -- or even earlier this season. Detroit doesn't give up much to fantasy defenses, so this is a low-ceiling spot for the Bears.

Billy Heyen