Expert Week 1 NFL Pick Advice, Tips for Survivor pools

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Expert Week 1 NFL Pick Advice, Tips for Survivor pools image

Our weekly advice column for NFL survivor pools and knockout-style pools is back for the 2019 season. In this post we break down the five most popular survivor picks for Week 1 and lay out the pros and cons of each pick from a strategy perspective.

Rather than just identifying the most likely teams to win, we take a more value-driven approach making survivor picks, and the results speak for themselves. Subscribers to our premium survivor picks and tools have reported nearly $1.5 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.

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We’ll briefly explain the key strategies that have driven that success, then get to our NFL Week 1 survivor pick analysis.

This analysis is brought to you by TeamRankings, the only site that provides customized picks that maximize your edge in football pools. Check out their NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Football Pick'em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks..

Sporting News readers can get free premium access to TeamRankings for NFL Week 1. Access includes all game predictions and betting picks, plus picks for your survivor pools and pick ’em contests. Claim your free trial now.

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Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Strategy

Our survivor pick analysis is different than what you’re probably used to reading. Most survivor advice-givers tell you why they think a specific team is definitely going to win its Week 1 game and is therefore a great survivor pick. But picking the most likely team to win every week is almost never the best strategy.

We evaluate Week 1 survivor picks based on what really matters: How likely they are to help you win your pool. This level of analysis requires goes much deeper than just looking at how safe a pick is.

For example, in Week 3 last year, Minnesota’s loss to Buffalo eliminated nearly 60 percent of still-alive survivor pool entries nationwide. If you were one of the minority of survivor players that recognized the benefit of avoiding a team picked by nearly 60 percent of your opponents, you had a great shot at winning your survivor pool last year.

The four keys to a winning survivor pool strategy

Figuring out which Week 1 survivor pick will give you the biggest boost in expected pool winnings requires you to consider the “Holy Trinity” of NFL survivor pool strategy:

  • Win odds (higher is better)
  • Pick popularity (lower is better)
  • Future value (lower is better)

All else being equal, picking a less popular team and saving a better team for the future will increase your odds to win an NFL survivor pool. By extension, your expected profit from a survivor pool can often go up significantly if you avoid picking the most popular pick of the week. 

And the fourth key? Well, that has nothing to do with the numbers. It is psychological: Avoiding the safest (and usually most popular) pick of the week means taking some extra risk that you get eliminated, even if that added risk makes complete sense economically.

If Minnesota had actually won in Week 3 last year but you took another pick that lost, you would have been roundly mocked by your less-savvy pool opponents — even though you still made the higher expected-value decision. And that potential outcome scares people.

But think about it this way: To win a survivor pool you are going to have to take chances at some point. And it may turn out that the best opportunity of the year to "fade the public" comes in Week 1, 3, or 5. If you don't have the guts to take action on it because you're scared about an early exit from the pool, then you're giving up edge to players bold enough to do it.

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Week 1 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Tips, Analysis

Below are our thoughts on the five Week 1 survivor picks that are the most popular picks this week in nationwide survivor pools. In other words, these are the picks that you are most likely considering making in your survivor or knockout pool this week.

To be clear: We’re not implying that any of these teams is the best pick for your pool. In fact, that’s the problem with pretty much every other survivor pick advice article out there. There is no such thing as a universally “best” survivor pick.

Our top recommended Week 1 pick for your pool would almost certainly change based on factors like your pool’s size and rules. Hop over to our NFL Survivor Picks product (which is free for Week 1) and get customized pick recommendations.

But if you’d rather make picks completely on your own, no problem. Based on factors that have a major impact on your odds to win your pool, the analysis below should help you weigh the pros and cons of the picks you’re probably considering.

Note: Data referenced below was current as of Thursday morning, and could change between posting time and kickoff time. Our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Survivor Pool Pick Popularity:
27 percent (No. 1)
Point Spread: -10

It’s not a huge surprise that Seattle is the most popular survivor pick in Week 1. Until betting lines recently moved in Philadelphia’s favor, the Seahawks (a 10-point favorite) were the most likely team to win this week, playing at home against a Bengals team coming off a disappointing season and adjusting to new head coach Zac Taylor.

Cincinnati is expected to finish in last place in the AFC North, and the Bengals will be without star receiver A.J. Green for this game. Seattle, meanwhile, is expected to compete for a playoff spot in 2019, and the Seahawks have been tough to beat at home with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Pete Carroll at head coach. Seattle has won 27 of 31 home games when favored by at least nine points with Wilson at QB.

Our models put Seattle’s win odds just shy of 80 percent, and the next week in which the Seahawks project so strongly isn’t until Week 16 (home vs. Arizona), when they may even be resting starters if they happen to have a playoff spot locked up by then.

That’s definitely something to keep in mind if you are playing in a smaller pool that is unlikely to last until Week 16. In that case, Seattle’s future value is significantly lower than other big favorites this week, a fact that helps counteract the downside of Seattle’s high — but not crazy-high — pick popularity.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Washington Redskins)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 21 percent (No. 2)
Point Spread: -10

Philadelphia enters Week 1 with the second-highest pick popularity but as of Wednesday had become the safest team (both the Eagles and Seahawks were 10-point favorites, but Philadelphia’s money line was slightly better).

The Eagles are expected to bounce back as a Super Bowl contender this season, with an average projection of 9.9 wins in our season simulations after finishing 9-7 a year ago. Carson Wentz is back as starting quarterback, now more than a year removed from the knee injury that cost him the end of his 2017 season in which he looked like an MVP candidate before going down.

Washington, meanwhile, has lowered expectations entering the season. Journeyman Case Keenum will start at quarterback over rookie Dwayne Haskins, the skill positions are far from settled, and OT Trent Williams is holding out.

Philadelphia being the safest but not the most popular pick in Week 1 is certainly a nice combo -- the concern is more about future value, especially in bigger pools. The Eagles project as having the top win odds in Week 14 and top-three win odds in at least three more weeks (Week 3 against Detroit, Week 5 against the Jets, Week 13 at Miami).

There may well be viable alternatives to pick in several of those weeks, but with over 20 percent of survivor entries burning the Eagles in Week 1, it also increases the odds that Philadelphia will be a relatively safe yet unpopular pick in one of them.

Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 12 percent (No. 3)
Point Spread: -6.5

With roughly half of survivor entries nationwide taking either Seattle or Philadelphia in Week 1, the other half of entries is settling for riskier but significantly less popular teams.

After the Andrew Luck retirement news, the Chargers (the No. 4 team in our preseason rankings) moved up to the third most popular survivor pick of Week 1. The line moved by three or four points in LA’s favor with the Colts change in quarterback to Jacoby Brissett, giving the Chargers around 72-percent win odds compared to roughly 80-percent for the Seahawks and Eagles.

A week ago, the Chargers had climbed to eight-percent pick popularity. It reached 12 percent on Wednesday. If LAC’s pick popularity continues to rise before kickoff time, it will negatively impact the expected value of picking the Chargers this week.

Like the Eagles, the Chargers have multiple weeks with “good survivor pick”-level win odds early in the season, and the Bolts could be among the better survivor options in Week 4 (at Miami) and Week 5 (Denver). Then, there’s a bit of a lull in higher win odds games until Oakland in Week 16.

Multiple favorable matchups in near-term games means that the Chargers rate quite highly in terms of future value, plus they are riskier than the two top favorites and are not a very unpopular pick either. In general, that’s not the most compelling profile.

Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 11 percent (No. 4)
Point Spread: -6.5

The Dolphins seem to be in tank-for-the-future mode. They have traded away veterans like OT Laremy Tunsil for draft picks and will start 36-year-old Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Baltimore, on the other hand, is handing the keys to young QB Lamar Jackson after he helped the Ravens make the playoffs a year ago. For an outside Super Bowl contender, the Ravens have made a lot of offseason changes, getting a lot younger at receiver and in the front seven while adding veterans in RB Mark Ingram and S Earl Thomas.

The point spread in this game has bounced around quite a bit in the early going. It opened at Ravens -4 and started climbing, spiking to Ravens -7.5 earlier in the week. It has now gone back down to Ravens -6.5. That puts Baltimore in the same range as the Chargers when it comes to risk, with about a 72-percent chance of winning.

Baltimore is also similarly popular as the Chargers, with 11-percent pick popularity vs. 12-percent for LAC. The fact that they are on the road may be a factor in them being slightly less popular of a pick.

From a future value perspective, Baltimore doesn’t boast as compelling a profile as the Chargers. The main wild card looks to be Week 2, when the Ravens should be the clear top favorite of the week when hosting Arizona. In addition, New England and Kansas City, both teams expected to be great this year, project as the second and third most likely winners of Week 2, and both teams are playing on the road. As a result, Baltimore may also be a tremendously popular pick next week, which could lead you to want to avoid picking them this week.

The primary negative we see this week for Baltimore is that our models relatively pessimistic about their win odds compared to the Chargers. In the betting markets, Baltimore had a slightly better money line than LAC, despite also being a 6.5-point favorite.

Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
Survivor Pick Popularity: 6 percent (No. 5)
Point Spread: -7.5

Dallas checks in as the fifth-most popular survivor pick this week, but the Cowboys’ six-percent pick popularity is nearly half that of the next most popular pick, Baltimore. Add the third-highest win odds of the week (76 percent) into the mix, and you’re off to an interesting start.

Dallas’ popularity has risen slightly, though, with the news of Ezekiel Elliott’s contract extension and return to the team on Wednesday. Whether it continues to rise for the rest of the week is something to keep an eye on, as it will negatively impact the expected value of picking the Cowboys if it does.

On the future value front, Dallas probably falls somewhere in between Seattle and Philadelphia. The Cowboys look like they will be the safest pick in Week 3, at home against Miami. But with the next-safest options that week likely to be New England and Philadelphia, Dallas could also be an extremely popular Week 3 pick (not a good thing). Then, starting in Week 4, Dallas’ schedule gets tougher for a while, and they don’t have a projected 70-percent win-odds game until they host Buffalo in Week 13.

Get Our Week 1 Survivor Pick Recommendation

The teams above are the most popular picks this week, but that doesn’t mean one of them is the best pick for you. Every possible pick has an expected value and future value associated with it, and those values vary based on the specific characteristics of your pool.

It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives the biggest boost to your expected survivor pool winnings.

We built our NFL Survivor Picks tool to do all of this analytical work for you. You answer a few questions about your pool’s size and rules, and it provides customized pick recommendations for your pool using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends from national survivor pool sites.

The product even does a second layer of optimization if you are playing multiple survivor entries, recommending exactly how you should split a “portfolio” of survivor pool entries across one, two, or more teams. (Our product optimizes picks for up to 30 unique survivor pool entries.)

We invite you to give it a try, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!

Sporting News readers can get free premium access to TeamRankings for NFL Week 1. Access includes all game predictions and betting picks, plus picks for your survivor pools and pick ’em contests. Claim your free trial now.

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