Week 1 Fantasy QB Rankings: Must-starts, sleepers, potential busts at quarterback

Billy Heyen

Week 1 Fantasy QB Rankings: Must-starts, sleepers, potential busts at quarterback image

Week 1 can bring out extraordinary play from quarterbacks. One season, Peyton Manning threw seven touchdowns on the NFL's opening night. Last year, Lamar Jackson quickly jumped to superstardom by annihilating the Dolphins. With no preseason, the 2020 NFL season provides more pre-kickoff mystery than ever, but odds are, at least a few of the QBs in our Week 1 rankings will have huge games that lead you to a 1-0 start to your fantasy season.

Along with no preseason, this campaign begins with many stadiums featuring no fans, and the ones that are allowing people into the seats are drastically reducing capacity. We've yet to see how new defenses operate, whether it be a fresh coordinator or offseason acquisitions expected to make a difference. So, aside from a few obvious matchups in Week 1, ones we're pretty confident are great or terrible, our Week 1 rankings won't differ too mightily from our season-long lists. There are only so many trends we can count on before games have even been played.

WEEK 1 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

That being said, it's probably fair to fear the San Francisco defense in 2020. If you drafted Kyler Murray, it was surely to be your starter, and it's hard to bench your sure-thing starter Week 1. Between the passing volume of Kliff Kingsbury's offense and Murray's likelihood to run, he doesn't fall as far down our rankings as a stationary pocket passer might. But if you paired Murray with a veteran backup like Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, you could consider them both safer plays in Week 1.

WEEK 1 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiverTight end | D/ST | Kicker

We also don't feel great about Baker Mayfield starting the season off in Baltimore. The hope is that Mayfield and co. bounce back from a disappointing 2019, but we don't really have any proof yet that that will happen. Besides, the Ravens have a strong defense and will control time-of-possession by running the football, so Mayfield has low Week 1 upside.

WEEK 1 DFS TOURNAMENT LINEUPS:
YahooDraftKings | FanDuel

If you're feeling adventurous in Week 1 and want to start Cam Newton, at least he has a friendly matchup with the Dolphins. Joe Burrow could get off to a rougher start against the pass rush of the Chargers. Philip Rivers will take his first snaps outside of a Chargers uniform in a long time, and the Jaguars defense is depleted, but surely you can do better than the Colts' signal-caller.

WEEK 1 DFS CASH LINEUPS:
Yahoo | DraftKings | FanDuel

Don't forget to have fun, too. There's no telling where this season goes, but while there's football on your television and fantasy lineups to root for, life could be a whole lot worse.

Note: Check back throughout the week, as we'll continue to update our QB rankings up until kickoff based on the latest news, as well as provide individual player analysis. 

Week 1 Fantasy QB Rankings

These rankings are for four-point passing TD leagues

Rank Player
1 Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CLE
2 Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU
3 Russell Wilson, SEA @ ATL
4 Dak Prescott, DAL @ LAR
5 Deshaun Watson, HOU @ KC
6 Carson Wentz, PHI @ WAS. Wentz missed a bit of time in late August with a soft tissue injury, but there's nothing to indicate he'll be hampered come Week 1. Before Philly's receiving corps all got hurt last year, Wentz threw for 313 yards and three scores in the opener against Washington in 2019. Expect a similarly great output to begin the year this time around.
7 Drew Brees, NO vs. TB. A Brees vs. Brady shootout in Week 1 of 2020 that doesn't even involve the Patriots? This is indeed a weird world. You can feel great about both Brees and Brady in this matchup of defenses that quarterbacks torched all last season.
8 Josh Allen, BUF vs. NYJ. There's a consensus expectation that Allen will take a leap in year three in the NFL. He doesn't have even have to in order to maintain fantasy value - his rushing, especially in the red zone, pays itself off. Allen did throw two INTs versus one TD in last year's opener against the Jets, but New York's defense isn't good enough to slow Allen in 2020.
9 Kyler Murray, ARZ @ SF. We covered Murray some in the intro, and we'll do it again here: His passing volume combined with rushing capability give him a great upside even against a defense like San Francisco that could slow his efficiency. He might be a bit riskier than the four veterans just below him, so if you picked one of them as Murray's backup and don't like risk, you could sit the second-year passer in Week 1. Otherwise, roll with the QB you took as your starter despite a tough opening matchup.
10 Tom Brady, TB @ NO. Brady's going to look weird in a uniform other than New England's, I can promise you that. But with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard to throw to, the G.O.A.T. should have no problem producing in this high-scoring matchup. 
11 Matt Ryan, ATL vs. SEA. Long gone are the Legion of Boom days - Seattle was a league-average defense fantasy-wise against QBs in 2019. The Seahawks did intercept 16 passes, near the top of the NFL, but Ryan is polished and mistake-free enough that there shouldn't be concern about that.
12 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ NYG. An elbow injury that kept Roethlisberger out most of 2019 was still a concern early in training camp, but Roethlisberger appears to have put those worries to bed for the time being. Even a less than 100 percent Big Ben could put up a good fantasy day against a Giants defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs in 2019. 
13 Aaron Rodgers, GB @ MIN. Rodgers threw for a combined 425 yards in two games against the Vikings last year, totaling two touchdowns and one interception. This isn't the high-volume Rodgers we once knew. It's safe to expect that the future Hall of Famer was less affected by the unusual offseason than most, though, making him at least usable in the opener.
14 Jared Goff, LAR vs. DAL. Goff led the league in pass attempts last year, even though he didn't lead the NFL in any other volume passing stats. If you're looking outside the stalwarts at the position for QB help, though, a shootout in Week 1 could see Goff throw 50 or 60 times and have a good fantasy game almost by default.
15 Cam Newton, NE vs. MIA. Newton's output in New England remains one of the tougher-to-predict outcomes in the 2020 NFL season, but this much we know: The Dolphins allowed the second-most fantasy points to QBs last year. Newton is a super risky play and should probably only be used in two-QB leagues in his New England debut, but the matchup is certainly juicy.
16 Joe Burrow, CIN vs. LAC. It's likely Burrow is just your backup as you await the No. 1 pick's NFL debut. You should probably keep him on your bench in a single-QB format for Week 1 -- the Chargers pose a challenge via their pass-rushing that could hurry Burrow in his first pro outing. 
17 Tyrod Taylor, LAC @ CIN. We're higher on Taylor than most, so he might even be sitting on your waiver wire heading into Week 1. The Bengals allowed the most rushing yards to QBs in 2019 (and were near the top even when you subtract Lamar Jackson's output), and they also got passed all over. The absence of Mike Williams isn't enough to ruin the solid floor-ceiling combo Taylor possesses for Week 1. 
18 Daniel Jones, NYG vs. PIT. The Steelers picked off 19 QB passes last year, second-best in the NFL. Jones will be a risky play for the opener after being a bit too turnover-prone as a rookie. (In reality, a number of Pittsburgh's 2019 INTs were fluky at best, so don't knock Jones too far down for the opener.)
19 Baker Mayfield, CLE @ BAL. The hope is that Mayfield has a bounceback year, but it likely won't start against a stout Baltimore defense. Baker is only playable in two-QB leagues in Week 1.
20 Matthew Stafford, DET vs. CHI
21 Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. ARZ. Arizona allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year. San Francisco likely will stick to its run-heavy approach, but the Cardinals defense is beatable enough to count on Jimmy G if you'd like to avoid a tough matchup for Jones or Mayfield, for example. 
22 Ryan Tannehill, TEN @ DEN
23 Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. GB
24 Drew Lock, DEN vs. TEN. If Jadeveon Clowney gets up to speed in time for this one, that's a knock against Lock, but the Titans also traded Jurrell Casey from a so-so 2019 defense, so maybe that's a wash. Lock has so many weapons around him that, combined with some rushing ability, he's usable in two-QB leagues most weeks this season.
25 Gardner Minshew, JAX vs. IND. Indy was a below-average pass defense last season, and Minshew had a whole offseason to improve upon a promising rookie year. It's unlikely you need to use Minshew Week 1, but he's not a bad QB2 play.
26 Derek Carr, LV @ CAR
27 Philip Rivers, IND @ JAX
28 Teddy Bridgewater, CAR vs. LV
29 Mitchell Trubisky, CHI @ DET. What a great Week 1 matchup for Trubisky to get our hopes up, only to struggle for a few weeks, proabably give the job back to Nick Foles and then continue to bring the Bears hatred for drafting him over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson.
30 Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF
31 Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA @ NE
32 Dwayne Haskins, WAS vs. PHI

Billy Heyen