Fantasy football owners want to win every matchup, and the best way to do that is to avoid starting busts. We all know even top-tier stars high in the rankings can disappoint or get injured in any given week, so it's extra important to make the right start 'em, sit 'em calls on borderline guys. In the season's opening week, that's extra difficult, especially when you want to play those shiny sleepers like Dameon Pierce, Trey Lance, and George Pickens, but all are featured in our Week 1 bust picks.
Again, even superstars bust from time-to-time, but the only time you'll see those players on this list is if we truly advise sitting them. Normally, we stick to players on the start-or-sit bubble -- not "must-starts" and not guys with ownership percentages north of 90. We also know you can't always avoid players on this list (especially during bye weeks). Sometimes you don't have the depth to reasonably bench these players or you might just totally disagree with our assessments. In which case, have at it -- it's your team, and it's almost always better to trust your gut.
We'll do our best to help your start 'em, sit 'em decisions and be wary of all the "right" guys with our Week 1 bust picks.
WEEK 1 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Start 'em, sit 'em
Week 1 Fantasy Busts: Running backs
Breece Hall, Jets vs. Ravens (Vinnie Iyer). The rookie is bound to have a rough start against a stout Baltimore front, and it’s unknown how much work he will get at first in relation to Michael Carter.
AJ Dillon, Packers @ Vikings (Nick Musial). Dillon is expected to see an increased snap share this season after logging a 42.6 percent snap share in 2021, but it's still tough to believe the Packers will produce two fantasy-worthy RBs on a weekly basis. If in fact Minnesota gets a lead on Green Bay, Dillion could be scripted out of the game with Aaron Jones getting more run in Week 1.
Dameon Pierce, Texans vs. Colts (Matt Lutovsky). I know, I know -- Pierce is everyone's preseason rookie darling. There's certainly reason to like him long term, but in Week 1 against a solid Colts' defense that ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed per game last year, he seems like a middling option. Consider him no more than a flex, and given his team situation and the slight uncertainty of his overall role, don't force him into your lineup over more proven players.
WEEK 1 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kicker
Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks
Derek Carr, Raiders @ Chargers (Iyer). He doesn’t have a great recent history of good numbers against the Chargers, and their pass defense got tougher featuring his ferocious former teammate, Khalil Mack.
Trey Lance, 49ers @ Bears (Musial). Lance has been pegged as a second-year breakout by many, and while his running ability boosts his fantasy floor, he still needs to prove it with his arm. Chicago's defensive line isn't anything special, but their secondary is the clear strength of the unit. Lance and the 49ers will rely on the ground game with Elijah Mitchell and Jeff Wilson Jr. to get out of Chicago with a Week 1 win.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins vs. Patriots (Lutovsky). Chances are, you drafted Tua as a backup, so this might not help you too much, but just in case you fully bought into the hype, be careful in Week 1. In three career games against New England, Tagovailoa is averaging just 152 passing yards with two total TDs and two INTs.
WEEK 1 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kicker
Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts: Wide receivers
Rashod Bateman, Ravens @ Jets (Iyer). The Jets have upgraded their secondary for Robert Saleh, and Baltimore should be fine winning with a lot of Lamar Jackson and its backs running, as well as some big tight-end success.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman, Chiefs @ Cardinals (Musial). Consider this a warning against all Chiefs' WRs with the possible exception of JuJu Smith-Schuster. We don't exactly know who will become Patrick Mahomes' No. 2 passing option behind Travis Kelce, and as a result, MVS, Moore, and Hardman could be in line for disappointing Week 1 performances. Chances are, at least one will make a big play, but good luck trying to guess which one.
George Pickens, Steelers @ Bengals (Lutovsky). There's a lot to like about Pickens long term, but the Steelers' passing game is still a mystery in Week 1. From the QB to the target distribution, it's best to take a wait-and-see approach with both Chase Claypool and Pickens.
WEEK 1 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel | Yahoo
Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts: Tight ends
Hunter Henry, Patriots @ Dolphins (Iyer). The arrival of DeVante Parker as a big outside target plus in addition to better health from Jonnu Smith will cool off last year’s scoring machine from the get-go.
Albert Okwuegbunam, Broncos @ Seahawks (Musial). Okwuegbunam's expected to end the season as Denver's TE1, but he might be in line for a rough Week 1 performance against Seattle. It was interesting to see him log such a high snap rate in the preseason when Denver elected to rest their starters for most of the preseason. Additionally, he's dealing with a lower body issue, but it's looking like he'll suit up on Monday night.
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. 49ers (Lutovsky). The 49ers absolutely shut down TEs last year (4.4 FPPG in half-point PPR leagues), and Kmet had well-documented troubles finding the end zone. Put it together, and he's a Week 1 fade. Don't worry, though -- he'll get his eventually.
WEEK 1 DFS: Best values | Best stacks
Week 1 Fantasy Busts: Defenses
Green Bay Packers @ Vikings (Iyer). Over the long haul Green Bay will make a ton of big plays with its pass rush and secondary, but it fails to start off with a bang on the road against a more explosive Minnesota attack.
Washington Commanders vs. Jaguars (Musial). Jacksonville's offense is going to be one of the more improved units this season, and a solid Week 1 performance from Trevor Lawrence and company is not out of the question against the Chase Young-less Commanders.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (Lutovsky). If there's ever a time to face the Bucs, it's in Week 1 when Chris Godwin (knee) still isn't 100 percent and Tom Brady is only a few weeks removed from a vacation, but...nah. You don't need to take this risk.
