Wow, what a week we just had last week at The Players Championship. The move to March was a homer un for the tournament, and we get to keep some continuity in the schedule by continuing the Florida swing for the fourth consecutive week with the Valspar Championship. The relatively weak field for this tournament will still give bettors and those in daily fantasy golf contests plenty of options, whether you opt for the clear favorites or some of the cheaper underdogs.
The Valspar Championship is played at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort just outside of Tampa. Copperhead is one of the most difficult courses on the entire PGA Tour rota and offers up a ton of danger off the tee, which many times forces players to club down and be left with many long irons on the approach to the green.
MORE ROTOQL: Lineup BuilderPlayers absolutely must hit fairways at Copperhead, otherwise bogies or worse will pile up quickly. This makes good driving percentage a statistic that I’m closely looking at this week, and there’s no coincidence that guys who have success around here are players who go heavy with their 3-wood off the tee.
Innisbrook is also unique in that it is a Par 71 that features four Par 5s and an extra Par 3 (good for five total Par 3s). While normally I would want to focus on Par 5 scoring on courses with four Par 5s, the Par 5s at Innisbrook are all fairly difficult and rank toward the bottom of the tour in terms of birdie and eagle rate.
There will inevitably be more missed greens this week with the amount of long irons that players will be forced to hit, so we are also going to want to really focus on guys who can scramble and grind out pars. Finally, you see a lot of long term-good putters pop up on the leaderboard at this event each year, and while putting is so variable that you should rarely focus too heavily on it, there is enough of a correlation this week to keep long-term putting in mind.
Before we get into this week's picks, we have to point out that plenty of strategy goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets. By now you should know the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our easy-to-use RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer gives you a big advantage when you're putting together DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a massive edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.
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Key Stats
Strokes Gained: Approach 175-200 yards
Scrambling
Par 3 Scoring
Good Drive Percentage
Bogey Avoidance
Valspar Championship picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top Tier: Dustin Johnson, Jason Day (GPP), Sergio Garcia, Patrick Reed (Cash)
Mid-Range: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Jason Kokrak (Cash), Branden Grace, J.T. Poston
Value Plays: Nick Taylor, Sung Kang, Bud Cauley, Roberto Castro, Adam Schenk, K.H. Lee
Valspar Championship betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sergio Garcia 18/1
At the very top, Dustin Johnson is the clear favorite at 5.5/1, which, for me, is an unbettable number regardless of how good the golfer and how weak the field may be. If you want exposure to DJ then the DFS markets are a much better avenue than an outright bet. That's why I'll be dropping down to Garcia at 18/1 to start my betting card. Sergio’s game is starting to round into form nicely, and he is a great course fit for Innisbrook with his ball striking. Garcia has gotten close here a couple times, and 18/1 is a nice number for a class player in a weaker field.
Patrick Reed 25/1 + T10
Reed has played some of his best golf at Innisbrook, and he is my favorite bet of the week at 25/1 with a T10 bet on top of it for +250. Reed has had some mediocre results this season, but he will benefit from playing a difficult layout that places an emphasis on short game and putting. Reed has an excellent track record at this event having racked up finishes of T2, T38, T7, and T2 over the past four years.
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Snedeker popped up with a T5 finish last week at The Players and will look to roll over some of that momentum on to this week at Innisbrook. It’s somewhat baffling that Snedeker has a mediocre history at this event because long irons and putting are two things that Snedeker does extremely well. I like targeting Sneds at tougher courses, and 50/1 is good value in weaker field event. A T5 or T10 bet is also in play here, but it's not what I’ll personally be looking to do given his inconsistent Snedeker has been over the past two-plus years.
Branden Grace 80/1 + T10
Grace is the most undervalued player in the field this week and is worth a shot at his 80/1 odds with a T10 bet on top of it. Grace made the weekend last week at The Players and is a nice course fit for Innisbrook. Grace is another player that tends to contend at more difficult layouts where scoring is at a premium. Grace picked up a T8 finish at this event last season
Punts to consider: C.T. Pan 150/1, Joel Dahmen 150/1, Sung Kang 150/1