Top Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2022: Potential breakouts, steals in 2022 drafts

James Grande

Top Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2022: Potential breakouts, steals in 2022 drafts image

Call them "sleepers," "breakouts," "steals" -- it doesn't matter. All that matters is you find some of these value players in your 2022 fantasy baseball draft.

Below is a list of some of Fantasy Alarm's favorite sleepers heading into this season. What's the criteria? Players who are likely going to go after the 15th round in 12-team leagues. Obviously, some of these players could be reaches if you're in a 10-team league or only play with three OFs and no MIs or CIs, but that doesn't mean you should completely ignore these players either. At the very least, they should be on your waiver-wire watchlist if they have hot starts.

2022 FANTASY BASEBALL RANKINGS:
CatcherFirst | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Closer | Overall

Eduardo Rodríguez, DET, SP

New jersey, new E-Rod, right? That’s the hope among many Tigers' fans and fantasy baseball owners around the world. The Tigers shelled out $77 million over five years to bring Rodriguez in despite pitching to a near 5.00 ERA last season. Look beyond that ERA, however, and you’ll see Rodriguez was very good in 2021. He faced some very bad luck, as he had a .363 BABIP. Moreover, he notched a 3.43 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA, both over 100 points lower than his aforementioned ERA. Where he excelled was in the strikeout department. He had 185 Ks in 157.2 IP and posted a career best 27.4-percent K-rate. He matched his 2020 SwStr percentage at 11.7, which is a very solid mark.

He now shifts from Fenway Park, which is the second-best offensive rated park over the past three seasons, to Comerica Park, which ranks 20th. A ground-ball pitcher with an elevated K-rate heading to a better pitchers park? Sign us up for the best few seasons of his career, starting with 2022.

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Brendan Rodgers, COL, 2B/SS

In 102 games in 2020, the former No. 3-overall pick really started showing his potential, belting 15 homers while hitting .284. Rodgers has a lot going for him entering the ‘22 season, but two things really stand out. First, it’s his multi-position eligibility. Being able to play both middle infield spots is a great thing to have. Second, and what probably is first in a lot of people’s eyes, is his home field. Here’s the most impressive part of his '21 season and what could lead to a monster '22. Look at his splits below and tell us what you see.

Figure it out yet? He was actually better on the road! How many players call Coors home and can put that on their resume? Not many. But if we see some positive regression at home, mainly in the power department, we could be talking about a guy approaching 30 home runs after hitting 15 in 102 games a year ago. This is a guy who has the upside to finish in the top 12 at each middle infield spot.

Ranger Suárez, PHI, SP (ADP - 180.70)

Are we completely overlooking how good Suarez was last year once he entered the Phillies rotation? Sure, he was a fantastic reliever, too, but he didn't skip a beat as a starter.

His K-rate, which generally is higher out of the 'pen, was virtually the same. He also walked fewer batters, allowed far fewer home runs, and had a better FIP as a starter. Sustainability is obviously the question on everyone’s mind since he started three games prior to last year, when he started 12. Throughout his entire minor league career, Suarez was a starter. Maybe the strikeout stuff isn’t sustainable since he never really flashed that upside at any level, but if he keeps the ball on the ground 60 percent of the time, he’ll do just fine. It needs to be mentioned that his fastball velocity was an all-time high in 2021, reaching 93.8 mph, which was the first time over 93 for an entire campaign since he entered the big leagues back in '18.

MORE FANTASY: Sleepers | Prospects | Cheat Sheet

Matt Chapman, TOR, 3B

At this point in Chapman’s career, it looks like we’re going to have to live with the strikeouts. Although he cut his K-rate from 2020, his ‘21 mark was still north of 30 percent (32.5). But he still seems to be falling way too far in drafts, even if he's unlikely to match his '19 numbers in which he nearly reached 40 home runs and had 102 RBIs.

When you point to where Chapman’s struggles were in 2021 you can point to all his numbers in Statcast. He barreled the ball at a decent 13.7-percent clip, but he was not making nearly as much hard contact, as his hard-hit rate dropped to 41.7 (career mark is 45.5) and his exit velocity was a career low 89.7 mph. The good thing is nothing suggests this is something that’s going to continue to drop considering just the year prior he had a career best 93.6-mph exit velocity.

Let’s not fail to mention 2021 was a year in which he was recovering from hip surgery. Well, now that he’s had an entire offseason to let it fully heal, the possibility of the '19 version of Chapman is very likely. Third base is weak in fantasy baseball this season, and while there are a lot of potentially solid plays, there are also a lot of potential busts. I’m willing to go out on a limb and say Chapman could be the steal of the position.

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Gregory Soto, DET, RP

With A.J. Hinch naming Soto as the Tigers' closer entering 2022, it's all systems go on a late-round closing option here. Soto has electric stuff, notching a 27-percent K-rate or better in two consecutive seasons and over 10 K/9 in each season, as well. Soto has become a two-pitch pitcher with the fastball and slider, and his velocity over the past two seasons has risen. Look at where the velocity started in '19 at 95.4 MPH to where it ended up in '21 at 98.3 MPH.

What the graphic above shows is that he began throwing his slider at a much higher rate last year than he has throughout the first two years of his career. That pitch, amongst all qualified relievers, ranks as the 11th-best in baseball. If his 98-plus mph fastball can catch up and be nearly half as effective as the slider, he could be the best steal out of the bullpen during draft season.

Patrick Sandoval, LAA, SP

It’s understood when you hear "stress fracture in his back" it doesn’t sound good, but when Sandoval’s 2021 campaign came to an end due to the aforementioned injury, it was made clear that his '22 season would in no way be impacted.

Maybe his biggest stride of all, and maybe the most important to us fantasy owners, is the swinging strike (SwStr) rate of 15.2 percent. You know who has those types of numbers? The Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzers, and Robbie Rays of the world. Only five qualified pitchers had that high of a swinging strike rate in 2021. All we’re asking for is one healthy season, Mr. Sandoval. That’s all!

MORE FANTASY: Sleepers | Prospects | Cheat Sheet

Josh Rojas, AZ, 2B/SS/OF

It’s very hard to see a guy projected to leadoff -- in a hitter’s ballpark -- that has three-position eligibility and not be extremely interested in him. Last season was Rojas' first as a full-time player, and he had a moderately good campaign. He hit 11 home runs and had nine stolen bases while bolstering a .752 OPS and played everywhere on the diamond.

If you’re playing on a site like Yahoo, all that's required is five starts at a position of 10 total appearances, so if we see Rojas repeat his 2021 defensively, he could have five-position eligibility. His .341 OBP mixed with his speed is definitely what intrigues Arizona and what should intrigue us as fantasy owners on top of the positional stuff. He enters this season at just 28 and will have plenty of room to grow as the D-backs use him atop their order.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS, 1B

If you’re looking for some late-round power, look no further. In 133 games in 2021, Dalbec belted 25 bombs after hitting eight in ‘19 in his first 23 career games. Through his first 139 career games, he’s hit 33 home runs and has a .511 SLG. Something else that was impressive was the 78 RBIs he drove in mostly hitting at the bottom of the order and while being a platoon player. He’s projected to hit in the middle of the Red Sox order in the six-hole, which is a fantastic spot to up that even further. Look at the improvement on some of Dalbec’s batted-ball stats:

He took a massive step up in the exit velocity category, and his 92.4-mph mark – if qualified – would’ve ranked 19th in the league, ahead of teammate J.D. Martinez. Dalbec has a great chance to belt 30 bombs in 2022.

Nicky Lopez, KC, SS

As skeptical as we’re sure everyone was when Lopez got hot in the summer months of last year, he just never cooled off. He was great from the moment the calendar flipped to June and he never looked back.

Above are his numbers from June 1 until the end of the campaign. There are few things to take note of. First, his .326 average is elite. Second, he has a lot of speed and is a great base runner, swiping 17 of his 18 bags over that span. Last, he hits for absolutely no power, but hey, pretty solid two-category producer, right? All in all, he finished with a .300 average and stole 22 bags. Just 19 players in the entire league stole 20 bags, and Lopez was only one of three players that stole at least 20 and hit .300. Starling Marte and Trea Turner were the other two.

There is a place for guys like Lopez in fantasy baseball despite the fact everyone’s eyeballs are driven to the guys belting 40-plus home runs. Those guys are great, too, but a glue guy like Lopez helps your average and stolen base ratios tremendously.

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Taylor Rogers, MIN, RP

Injuries plagued Rogers in 2021, and he was only able to pitch in 40 games. Rogers hasn’t had the best luck throughout his career when looking at his numbers. He had ERAs of 4.05 and 3.35 in 2020 and '21, respectively, but in each of those seasons, his BABIP numbers were .400 and .358 while his xFIPs were 3.28 and 2.11, respectively.

We saw his ability to close games in ‘19 when he notched 30 saves and posted a 32.4-percent K-rate. He actually upped his K-rate last year to 35.5 percent, which was a career best number for him, so if he’s able to repeat that, he could very well be one of the better bullpen pieces this upcoming season.

Brandon Belt, SF, 1B

There has been a massive switch turned on for Belt in the past couple of seasons that has turned him into a destructor of the baseball. He’s always been a very solid hitter, but never like this. For a guy who hadn’t had a slugging percentage above .480 since 2013, what happened the past two seasons in which he’s notched a .591 and .597 mark, respectively?

His barrel rate and HardHit percentage had never been higher -- and they’ve been significantly higher. He sat around an 87-mph EV (exit velocity) in both 2018 and '19, but that’s increased to 90.7 and 89.2, respectively, the past two seasons.

Despite the fact that his home ballpark is not conducive to much hitting, it’s not much of an issue for Belt, as he Belt-ed 13 home runs and had a .571 SLG, .313 ISO, and .384 wOBA at home. He’s projected to hit near the top of the Giants lineup and should maximize his plate appearances in doing so.

John Means, BAL, SP

There is really not a lot going on with baseball right now except the fact Baltimore drastically altered the dimensions of their ballpark. The left field wall is being pushed back 26.5 feet and is being lifted seven feet, four inches, as well. Give a bump up to pitchers at Camden? Seriously?

Means struggled mightily at home last year, where he pitched to a 4.62 ERA and allowed a .333 wOBA and 2.1 HR/9. Look at his numbers in better pitcher environments, however. Yeah, the home runs still showed up, but everything else was down. Twice in three seasons as a full-time starter, Means has posted an ERA below 3.70. Doing that while pitching in what is considered a top-five offensive park in baseball is impressive.

He’s someone who misses bats anywhere from 22-23 percent of the time and has limited hard contact. Also, if Means is dealt, then he has tremendous upside with the potential he is moved out of the AL East.

Steven Matz, STL, SP

After moving on from the Mets to the Blue Jays on a one-year "prove yourself" deal, Matz did just that while pitching in multiple home ballparks that catered to hitters. All that said, Matz pitched to a 3.82 ERA and went 14-7. Matz very consistently produces 22-25-percent K-rate rates year in, year out, and heading into his age-31 season, that’s not likely going to change, but at the position he’s being drafted in, that’s more than serviceable as a guy that’s likely filling out your rotation.

Matz moves from Toronto to an ideal pitcher’s park in St. Louis. St. Louis was a bottom-five park in terms of runs scored and home runs, so insert a guy who has a career 47.1-percent ground-ball rate and it’s a recipe for success. The ground-ball rate matters because of how reliant upon his defense he is. According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals were the third-best defensive team in baseball last year and retained a lot of their elite defenders for 2022.

I'd be remiss to mention that the division he plays in now, compared to the boppers of the AL East, has to be a relief. Three teams in the NL Central are coming off seasons in which they were 18th or worse in OPS with no real signs of improving on those marks.

Jon Gray, TEX, SP

We’ve always wondered how good Gray could be when he’d call somewhere other than Coors Field his home, and now, we’re getting our wish. When you break down his career at Coors Field, it’s incredibly impressive when you factor in that he pitched there for seven seasons. His numbers are impressive, notching a 3.62 xFIP and a .257 BAA, which are both better than his road marks. Exit stage left and enter Globe Life Field, which caters to pitchers far more than it does the hitters. According to Baseball Savant’s ballpark factors, Globe Life was 21st for hitters last year.

Gray has been a good source of strikeouts throughout his career, as well, notching a 23-percent K-rate or better in five of his past six seasons. The outlier was the shortened season of 2020. You don’t have to use too high of a draft pick on Gray as he heads to his new home, and he could be a fantastic value by season's end.

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Mark Canha, NYM, OF

When you think of Canha, you don’t exactly think about a guy that has sported a .358, .387 and .396 OBP the past three seasons, respectively, but here we are, and because of that he got a nice shiny contract from the Mets in the offseason. He did show flashes of regression in the power department last year but still belted 17 bombs, and where he made up for it was on the base paths as he stole a career-high 12 bags. We’ll see if that does continue, however, as Buck Showalter has never been a manager who likes to run much.

At 33, Canha is still in the midst of his prime and is coming off his third season in four years with at least 17 homers. In those three campaigns, he’s had 60-plus runs and 50-plus RBIs. It’s worth bringing up, based on the chart above, that this is a positive park upgrade moving from O.Co to Citi Field in terms of home runs, as City has rated out as a top-13 park for home run hitters over the past three seasons.

Wil Myers, SDP, OF

After a career-ish year (considering it was a shortened 2020 season), Myers took a step back and had a decent season, but many were expecting more. That being said, would it pique your interest if I told you Myers battled through patellar tendinitis in his right knee all season long? He was diagnosed with that in April and played through it while managing the pain.

Let's look at some Statcast numbers, shall we?

The knee likely played a role in his inability to be effective stealing bases. Sure, he only stole two bags in 2020, but it was a 55-game sample and he was hitting everything out of the park. A whopping 31 of his 57 hits that year were for extra bases. Last year, he was successful on just eight of his 13 attempts. This is a guy who has twice stolen 20 bags and four times given us at least 13. Myers, who’s expected to come into 2022 healthy, is someone who can give us a 20-10, possibly a 20-15, season.

Andrew McCutchen, MIL, OF

The days of MVP Andrew McCutchen are long gone, but at 35, McCutchen can provide enough offensively to warrant some late-round consideration now that he's signed in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee was 18th in home runs last year, so inserting McCutchen's potential for 30 home runs was needed. McCutchen continues to show he has an elite eye at the plate, notching a 14-percent BB rate, but he also posted a career-worst K-rate. He's still hitting everything hard, notching a 36-percent hard-hit rate in 2021, which is on par with his career mark of 37 percent. The move back to his former home in the NL Central is going to be great for McCutchen considering he'll have so many games against cellar dwellers in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

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James Kaprielian, OAK, SP

It was an impressive rookie campaign for Kaprielian. The former Yankees farmhand racked up over a strikeout per nine innings in '21, coming away with a 24.5-percent K-rate for the year. He also had a 10.9-percent SwStr, which was ahead of guys like Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, and Jose Berrios, just to name a few.

Someone like Kaprielian is built to pitch in a park like Oakland's, as it plays to his strengths. He has been a fly-ball pitcher during his MLB tenure when he’s not striking guys out. Last year, Oakland ranked 23rd in home runs hit and 27th in runs. On a three-year rolling scale, O.Co is actually 25th and 27th, respectively, in those two categories. If Kaprielian can stay healthy and stick in the rotation, he has big upside.

James Grande