Today's MLB Picks: Betting odds, Vegas totals, expert gambling advice for Wednesday, May 1

Bennett Bedford

Today's MLB Picks: Betting odds, Vegas totals, expert gambling advice for Wednesday, May 1 image

We had a losing night last night, as neither of our run-line picks came through (Braves lost outright, Cardinals only won 3-2). But we did grab a win on the Brewers money-line win over the Rockies, so it wasn’t a complete loss. Wednesday features a great slate of MLB action that, while not as large as last night’s huge 15-game slate, still features some nice value that we can target with our betting picks.

We will be going back to the Braves for the third straight night as they will play the deciding game of their three-game series with the Padres. We will also be looking to target a huge favorite in the Mets that have the biggest starting pitching advantage on the slate. Finally, will be punting on a huge road underdog to round out the card.


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MLB Picks: Odds, betting trends for Wednesday, May 1

*All screenshots are from the BetQL Trending Value Bets Page

** All lines are subject to change. The best way to stay up to date on the current lines is to become a BetQL subscriber.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres

Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Cal Quantrill
Money Line: ATL -160, SD +135
Run Line: ATL -1.5 (+125), SD +1.5 (-145)
Total: O/U 9

The Braves and Padres split the first two games of their series and tonight will play the decisive game in Atlanta. Both teams will be throwing talented young pitchers in Max Fried and Cal Quantrill. The Padres have been excellent away from home this season, failing to lose a road series in 2019. The Braves, meanwhile, have struggled at home as of late, going 4-8 over their past 12 games. The BetQL models have handicapped Atlanta -1.5 at +125 as the highest value bet of the night for both run line and money line bets despite Atlanta covering only one of their past five games against the run line.

BetQL Pick: Atlanta Braves Run Line (+125)

MORE WEDNESDAY MLB: DFS picks | DK lineup | SP rankings

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Starting Pitchers: Anthony DeSclafani vs. Jacob deGrom
Money Line: CIN +170, NYM -200
Run Line: CIN +1.5 (-135), NYM -1.5 (+115)
Total: O/U 7

The Mets have easily the best pitching matchup of the night, as they will throw defending CY Young winner Jacob deGrom against Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani. While both of these rosters have below-average starting lineups, the value is clearly on the Mets run line in this spot at +115. The Mets average almost 1.5 more runs per game than the Reds, and Cincinnati have been one of the worst teams on the road this season, going 5-11. You can certainly take the Mets money line in this game, but -200 isn’t enough value for me or the BetQL models, which have that bet listed at only a one-star value, as opposed to the -1.5 run line coming in as a 2.5-star value.

BetQL Pick: New York Mets Run Line (+115)

Detroit Tigers at Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers: Daniel Norris vs. Aaron Nola
Money Line: DET +190, PHI -235
Run Line: DET +1.5 (-115), PHI -1.5 (-105)
Total: O/U 8

The final game we're targeting tonight is certain to make you feel uneasy, but we are looking for value here. The line in the Phillies-Tigers matchup seems just a bit off given how mediocre the Phillies have played thus far this season. Detroit took the first game of this series 3-1 and are listed as the best money line value bet of the night tonight despite having a big disadvantage in terms of starting pitching talent. The Phillies were banking on starter Aaron Nola to be the anchor of their rotation, but he has gotten off to a shaky start in 2019. His K-rate is down from where it was last season (27 percent in 2018, 22 percent in '19), his walk rate is up (seven percent in 2018, 9.2 percent in '19), and his ERA is over double what it was last season at 5.68 through six starts.

BetQL Pick: Detroit Tigers Money Line (+190)

Check out BetQL Mobile App's Trending Picks and Public Betting tools before making all your bets, and follow me on Twitter (@DFSBenj) for even more NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA daily fantasy and sports betting content.

Bennett Bedford