The NFL season will officially start Thursday night with a Week 1 rematch from the divisional round of the AFC playoffs as the defending champion Chiefs will face the Texans. The Chiefs are currently 9.5-point favorites against the Texans. Per BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard, the spread has actually moved slightly in the Texans’ direction as the Chiefs originally opened as 10-point favorites. The Chiefs are a -450 moneyline favorite and the over/under is set at 54 points.
BetQL’s NFL Best Bet Model lists this game as a five-star spread bet and a four-star moneyline bet. Keep reading to find out in which direction the model is leaning.
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All data presented is as of Thursday afternoon. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.
WEEK 1 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Chiefs Outlook
Per BetQL’s NFL sharp betting dashboard, while 60 percent of the tickets have been placed on Chiefs at -9.5, 66 percent of the money is laying with the Chiefs on the spread. While 54 percent of the moneyline tickets have been written for the Chiefs at -450, 76 percent of the money has been wagered on the Chiefs beating Texans. It is surprising to see the sharps and professionals more bullish on the Chiefs’ spread and moneyline than the public considering the recency of the Texans’ epic meltdown against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
September has historically been a strong month for the Chiefs in the Andy Reid era. The Chiefs are 19-5 in September games since Reid became Kansas City’s head coach. The Chiefs were 13-5 against the spread last season. All the key members of the Chiefs’ high-powered offense have returned to the team this season, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and wide receivers Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins.
The Chiefs are 24-7 in Mahomes’ 31 career starts at quarterback. Last season, Mahomes passed for 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns in 14 games while completing 65.9 percent of his passes for a passer rating of 105.3. In two games against the Texans last season, Mahomes passed for 594 yards and eight touchdowns. The Chiefs had the fifth-best offensive passing rating in the NFL last season.
MORE TEXANS-CHIEFS: Start-sit | DK Showdown | FD single-game | MKF top props
Texans outlook
The Texans are coming off back-to-back AFC South championships, but their team changed dramatically in the offseason. Head coach Bill O’Brien assumed responsibility for the general manager position in January. O’Brien’s most controversial transaction this offseason was trading Pro Bowl wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals. Hopkins led the Texans last season with 1,165 receiving yards and 104 receptions and accounted for 28.8 percent of the Texans’ receiving targets last season.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson’s primary targets at receiver will be Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, and the recently acquired Brandin Cooks, who's dealing with a quad injury. The Texans are 27-13 in the 40 career games that Watson has played at quarterback. Watson passed for 3,852 yards and 26 touchdowns in 15 games last season, completing 67.3 percent of his passes. Watson also rushed for 413 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Texans defeated the Chiefs last season at Arrowhead Stadium in their regular-season meeting. However, the Chiefs blew out Houston in their matchup in the AFC divisional round as the Texans infamously surrendered a 24-point first-half lead over the Chiefs. The Texans were 8-9 against the spread last season and finished the year with the eighth-worst defensive passing rating in the NFL.
You can find all updated NFL point spreads, lines, and odds at BetQL!
WEEK 1 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Prediction
BetQL’s NFL Model indicates that laying the 9.5-points with the Chiefs on the spread is a five-star bet (maximum value) for their matchup with the Texans. Although the NFL public betting is almost split in half for this game, the model projects the Chiefs should be an 11.5-point favorite against the Texans. The model also labels the Chiefs -450 moneyline as a four-star bet.
Check out BetQL’s NFL Best Bets Dashboard to find out what the algorithm likes for the spread and over/under for every NFL game this weekend., and to see what teams our model’s expert NFL picks are on in Week 1!