The Browns (3-6) are in must-win mode as they welcome the Steelers (5-4) to Firstenergy Stadium for a divisional Thursday Night Football matchup. With a 41.5-point over/under total, it’s implied to be one of the lowest-scoring games on the Week 11 slate and there are significant implications looming for the loser of this matchup -- and significant opportunities for bettors looking to profit against-the-spread or on the moneyline.
The Browns have two matchups against the winless Bengals and a home game against the two-win Dolphins on their schedule in the coming weeks. There’s still a chance that they can salvage their season, but a hiccup in this contest would decrease their playoff odds even more. After all, they’ll have to travel to Pittsburgh in a couple weeks for a rematch and will also square off against the surging Ravens in Week 16. Therefore, the pressure will be on in front of their home crowd in this one.
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Meanwhile, the Steelers enter this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Winners of four straight, the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick has done wonders for their stout defense while Mason Rudolph and company have done enough to keep the chains moving on offense. At one game over .500, they’re firmly in the playoff mix and still have a lot of room for improvement, which is a sign that they’re winning games without reaching their full potential, especially on offense.
Let’s get into what each team will bring to the table.
Steelers outlook
Pittsburgh’s offense will receive a massive boost when James Conner (shoulder) returns for this contest. Jaylen Samuels will likely still make an impact on passing downs. Last week, Pittsburgh managed just 42 rushing yards on 27 carries (Samuels took 14 carries for 29 yards) and had 90 rushing yards on 25 carries in the previous game (Samuels had just 10 yards on eight carries). However, in those two games, Samuels had 16 catches for 84 yards and made an impact in the passing game, which is where he tends to excel.
Conner’s presence will not only allow the Steelers to run the ball between the tackles with confidence, but it should also open things up for Rudolph, who should now be able to capitalize in play-action situations. JuJu Smith-Schuster had fallen off the map without Conner on the field and recorded just six catches for 60 yards over the past two weeks as defenses have been able to provide additional resources to key in on him. It’s important to point out that the Browns have allowed 221.1 passing yards per game this season (seventh best in the NFL) but have allowed 134.9 rushing yards per contest (sixth worst). That fact could make Conner’s presence even more impactful.
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Since acquiring Fitzpatrick, the Steelers have allowed 17.1 points per game and have been a dynamic, turnover-producing defense. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks third with 3.7 sacks per game and ranks second in interceptions (14). That’s bad news for Baker Mayfield and company.
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Browns outlook
Speaking of Mayfield, he’s struggled mightily this year. Completing just 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,201 yards, he’s amassed nine passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions through nine games. Further, he’s taken 25 sacks and lost two fumbles, as well. His 75.2 quarterback rating is among the worst NFL starters and is 18.5 points lower than what he recorded in his rookie campaign.
Moving forward, the running back duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (arguably the best in the NFL from an overall talent perspective) will likely be the focus of Cleveland’s offense. Hunt made his debut last week and will presumably continue to be used heavily in both the running and passing attacks moving forward. While Jarvis Landry broke out with a strong performance last week, Odell Beckham Jr.’s inconsistency and target share has been puzzling all season long. The superstar has just two 100-yard performances and has caught one touchdown pass in nine games. That’s simply unacceptable.
As previously mentioned, this Steelers defense is no joke. If Cleveland’s offensive line doesn’t come to play, Pittsburgh’s defense could realistically eat up Mayfield and force multiple turnovers. If the Browns can protect the pocket, their multi-dimensional offense always poses the threat of breaking out, especially if Beckham sees consistent targets.
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Prediction
So far this season, the UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games and 5-4 in all Browns games. Over the past three years when the Steelers have squared off against AFC North opponents on the road, the UNDER has gone 12-1. Therefore, UNDER the 41.5 point total is a logical bet.
While the Browns could realistically scrape out this victory in front of their home crowd as -150 moneyline favorites, BetQL’s NFL expert picks lists the visiting Steelers (+3) as the best bet against the spread in this matchup.
The public agrees, as 60 percent of the bets have rolled in on Pittsburgh ATS, per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks Dashboard. Find out if the Steelers are a sharp pick by checking out the percentage of total money that’s been wagered on them leading up to kickoff on BetQL.