Fantasy Baseball Rankings Tiers, Draft Strategy: Starting pitcher

Matt Lutovsky

Fantasy Baseball Rankings Tiers, Draft Strategy: Starting pitcher image

Starting pitcher is more difficult to tier than offensive positions. Not only are there seemingly endless amounts of SPs, but breakouts and busts also seem even more difficult to predict. Wins are notoriously volatile, and even just a few more/less homers or a little bit of better/worse batted-ball luck noticeably affects ERA and WHIP. As such, our starter tiers aren't all about "types" of production since many guys have similar profiles. It's more about reliability -- and even that only means so much given the injury issues many pitchers deal with. All of that put together is why fantasy baseball owners have so many different draft strategies when it comes to pitching.

The simplest question is whether you should wait on pitching and piece together a rotation with sleepers and matchup-based streamers or if you should go in on an ace early. There are advantages and drawbacks to both, but either way, mid- and late-round sleepers will be key. 

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2019 ultimate cheat sheet

We'll do our best to break down types of pitchers (i.e. high-K guys vs. low-WHIP guys) and the reliableness of different tiers of pitchers, as well as when to target them in your drafts.

Note: All position-eligible designations based on Yahoo default settings.

2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:  
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | StarterReliever | Top 300

Who are the best fantasy baseball SPs?

We've had some expansive tiers, even for the Tier 1 guys, at other positions, but we're limiting our Tier 1 SPs -- and you could argue we should limit it even more to just the top three guys.

Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom figure to be the top three pitchers drafted in most leagues, with at least one (Scherzer) going in the first round of most drafts. Sale and deGrom are also in the mix as borderline first-round picks in 12-team leagues. What sets them apart is impeccable across-the-board numbers and elite strikeout. deGrom has only had this all-around level of success once, so you could argue that someone like Corey Kluber is just as good, but deGrom seems to be improving while Kluber seems to be (slightly) declining, so that's why there's differentiation.

It's not as if Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole are consolation prizes. All have a case to be second-round picks. Cole trailed only Sale in K/9 ratio among starters last year (12.4), though it was a sharp improvement from his previous career-best of 9.0. Is it sustainable? Ditto for Verlander, who improved from a 9.6 K/9 ratio and 3.2 BB/9 ratio to 12.2 and 1.6 marks, respectively. Regression seems likely, but how much?

Conversely, Kluber dropped from an  11.7 K/9 in 2017 to 9.3 last year, so it's tough to know what to expect this year. Either way, he won't walk anyone or give up many homers, making him an ideal SP1 who won't cost you a first-round pick.

TIER 1A (First-round studs)
Max Scherzer, Nationals
Chris Sale, Red Sox
Jacob deGrom, Mets

TIER 1B (Second-round studs)
Justin Verlander, Astros
Gerrit Cole, Astros
Corey Kluber, Indians

MORE RANKINGS TIERS, DRAFT STRATEGY
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Closer

2019 Fantasy Baseball SP Rankings: Tier 2

We have to start by pointing out that being in Tier 2B doesn't mean a pitcher is worse than those in Tier 2A, it just means he's different in some way. With this tier, we're breaking up pitchers based on injury worries. That's not to say there those in Tier 2A are worry-free -- every pitcher has potential injury issues -- but those in Tier 2B have more fo a checkered medical history.

Many will argue there's a big difference between, say, Aaron Nola, a consensus third-round pick, and Jose Berrios, a seventh- or eighth-round pick. And while we're not going to argue Berrios is better, the bottom line is both have similar K- and BB-rates, with Berrios prone to giving up more homers. At 24, Berrios still has plenty of room to improve (as does the 25-year-old Nola), and we're anticipating a bit of a breakout for Berrios, which is why we have them in the same tier.

Of course, it would be surprising if Berrios became a Tier 1 pitcher next year, while many of the other pitchers in this tier have either been there or very close. Trevor Bauer was about as lights out as it gets last season, posting a 2.21 ERA and significantly dropping his HR-rate to 0.46. The reason he's not in Ter 1 this year is because he previously had never posted an ERA below 4.18 or an HR-rate under 0.94. Maybe he's finally figured it all out, but there are still regression worries. The same is true for Blake Snell, who significantly improved in K/BB ratio and saw his swinging-strike rate skyrocket from 10.8 percent to 15.1.

The pitchers in Tier 2B are bona fide aces, but lasting full seasons (i.e. 30-plus starts) might be too much to ask for. Clayton Kershaw (back) and Luis Severino (shoulder) are already dealing with injuries and will likely miss the first two-to-four weeks of the season. It's rare you can get aces like that at reduced costs, so if you trust your ability to stream early in the season, grabbing one in fourth or fifth round could a steal...or it could be a completely wasted pick.

Most of these guys can function as an SP1, but some will invariably be SP2s. If you have one in that slot, consider yourself ahead of the game.

TIER 2A (Potential SP1s)
Aaron Nola, Phillies
Carlos Carrasco, Indians
Blake Snell, Rays
Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Patrick Corbin, Nationals
Trevor Bauer, Indians
Jose Berrios, Twins
Zack Greinke, D-backs
Mike Clevinger, Indians
Jack Flaherty, Cardinals

TIER 2B (Potential SP1s with injury issues)
Noah Syndergaard, Mets
James Paxton, Yankees
​Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Luis Severino, Yankees

SLEEPERS & BUSTS: All-Breakout Team | All-Overrated Team

Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Potential studs and sleeper SPs

These aren't perfect sub-tiers, as not every guy is an exact match for the criteria, but it's a decent approximation of what we expect. There are injury risks scattered throughout (Yu Darvish, Jimmy Nelson, Masahiro Tanaka, Madison Bumgarner), but all of these pitchers have SP2 upside and a couple might even finish as SP1s.

Not all of the high-K guys in Tier 3A will strike out a ton more than the guys in Tier 3B or 3C, but Darvish, Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton, Eduardo Rodriguez, German Marquez, and Kenta Maeda all had K-rates of at least 10.0 last year (as did Jimmy Nelson the last time he pitched in 2017). You know what you're getting from these guys, at least in one category. Nelson has the most upside if he can stay healthy, but he'll likely be on an innings limit this year in his first season back from shoulder surgery. Mike Foltynewicz has similar upside, but he's yet to pitch in March because of elbow soreness.

Tier 3B features two guys who have turned in good seasons but still feel like they have another gear if everything comes together. Carlos Martinez (shoulder) likely won't be ready for opening day, though, and after spending a good chunk of last season in the bullpen, it's fair to think we're being overly optimistic about him.

If you feel like you can take a hit in ERA but need some help in WHIP, Tier 3C features targets for you. The K-rates of this group hover around 9.0, but it's a solid, if unexciting, set of hurlers. Luis Castillo is probably the one one who can reach another level.

The guys in Tier 3D are simply solid pitchers. It's possible Jameson Taillon and even Shane Bieber can hit a K per inning, but they'll likely be a little under. Miles Mikolas will have the lowest K-rate, but he's the best bet for a very good ERA and WHIP. Basically, these guys don't usually walk many, which limits damage to their peripherals. With so many strikeouts available across the league, it can feel like "settling" when you draft a pitcher like this, but they can all help fantasy teams. Bieber is especially intriguing after posting a 260/19 K-to-BB ratio in 277 minor league innings.

These guys will go off the board all over the draft. Some owners will avoid the injury risks; others will embrace the high upsides. If you want to skip the early-round SP picks and mine this group for your SP1, you're definitely taking a risk, but grabbing a couple of these guys gives your rotation plenty of potential. You could also grab your SP1 from Tier 1 and wait for your SP2 and  SP3 from this tier, focusing on offense in between.

TIER 3A (High K with HR or BB issues)
Yu Darvish, Cubs
Charlie Morton, Rays
Robbie Ray, D-backs
Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox
German Marquez, Rockies
Tyler Skaggs, Angels
Kenta Maeda, Dodgers
Mike Foltynewicz, Braves

TIER 3B (Good K, medium HR, high BB)
Carlos Martinez, Cardinals
Zack Wheeler, Mets

TIER 3C (Good K, high HR, low BB)
Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees
​David Price, Red Sox
Luis Castillo, Reds
J.A. Happ, Yankees
Rick Porcello, Red Sox
Jimmy Nelson, Brewers

TIER 3D (Decent K, good ERA/WHIP)
Jameson Taillon, Pirates​
Madison Bumgarner, Giants
Miles Mikolas, Cardinals
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs
Shane Bieber, Indians

2019 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:
Catcher | First | Second | Third | Short | Outfield | Starter | Each team

Fantasy baseball breakouts and bounce-back SPs

Only the die-hard SP holdouts are still looking for an SP1, and most owners likely have two pitchers at this point in the draft. It's not crazy to think a top-15 SP will emerge from this tier, but good luck picking the right candidate. These guys will land solidly in the middle and late-middle rounds, but there's legit upside here in the form of undervalued veterans or potential breakouts.

We've tiered them off based solely on strikeouts because that's the one stat that seems reliable. Some are injury risks (Rich Hill, Alex Wood), some will spend time in the bullpen (Julio Urias, Alex Reyes), some are mostly unproven (Tyler Glasnow, Yusei Kikuchi), and one doesn't even have a team (Dallas Keuchel). Furthermore, some will walk a lot of guys (Sean Newcomb, Zack Godley), which usually leads to a higher WHIP; some will walk next to none (Nathan Eovaldi, Jake Musgrove). Some will give up a lot of homers, which usually leads to higher ERAs (Joey Lucchessi, Jon Gray); some will give up relatively few (Dallas Keuchel, Kyle Freeland). Collin McHugh was a dominant reliever last year and could be poised for a big year if he can stay healthy and in the rotation, while others will fight to stay in their respective rotations.

Our favorite sleepers are Nick Pivetta, Lucchesi, Urias, Newcomb, Reyes, and Musgrove, but you're dealing with high-risk, high-reward types no matter who you pick. It's good to have a couple of these guys, but you don't want to be overly dependent on them. 

TIER 4A (Over a K per inning)
Nick Pivetta, Phillies
Chris Archer, Pirates
Brad Peacock, Astros
​Rich Hill, Dodgers
Joey Lucchesi, Padres
Julio Urias, Dodgers
Zack Godley, D-backs
Sean Newcomb, Braves
Jon Gray, Rockies
​Vince Velasquez, Phillies
Alex Reyes, Cardinals
Tyler Glasnow, Rays

TIER 4B (Slightly under a K per inning)
Andrew Heaney, Angels
Hyun-jin Ryu, Dodgers
Alex Wood, Reds
Cole Hamels, Cubs
Jose Quintana, Cubs
Jon Lester, Cubs

TIER 4C (Noticeably under a K per inning)
Kyle Gibson, Twins
Michael Wacha, Cardinals
Nathan Eovaldi Red Sox
Kyle Freeland, Rockies
Yusei Kikuchi,, Mariners
Dallas Keuchel FA
Jake Arrieta, Phillies
Jake Musgrove, Pirates

Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleepers: Starting Pitcher

You're now late in your draft, and you're probably looking for one, maybe two more starters. There are still pitchers worth drafting, though the guys in Tier 5A are always going to look more attractive that the "retreads" in Tier 5B. Most of those retreads have spots in rotations, though (well, except for the currently unsigned Gio Gonzalez), while more than a few in Tier 5A don't have guaranteed rotation spots or will spend some time in the minors this year.

Ross Stripling was fantastic last season in 21 starts, but he could wind up coming out of the Dodgers bullpen this year. Of course, with the checkered injury histories of almost everyone currently slotted for the rotation, chances are Stripling will make a good number of starts. Luke Weaver really disappointed after a breakout 2017, and Brandon Woodruff was a dominant reliever and had a star turn in the playoffs. Jesus Luzardo is a top prospect who will spend some time in Triple-A, and Josh James look poised for a rotation spot until a quad injury put his opening day status in question. All five make for attractive, high-K fliers.

Michael Pineda, back after a year of recovering from Tommy John surgery, is always an appealing late-round option, and Steven Matz seemingly got back on track after a dreadful 2017. He still gives up too many homers, but he's back to striking out almost a batter per inning. Along with Lance Lynn, Matz is a top strikeout option to target late in drafts. Sonny Gray is also an intriguing option now that he's in the NL and away from the pressures of the Yankees organization.

Marco Gonzalez has a low-BB profile that should make him a nice WHIP helper, and Julio Teheran used to fit that bill before having control issues the past two years.

TIER 5A (26-and-under sleepers)
Touki Toussaint, Braves
Luke Weaver, D-backs
Jesus Luzardo, A's
Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
Josh James, Astros
​Ross Stripling, Dodgers
Zach Eflin, Phillies
Trevor Williams, Pirates

TIER 5B (27-and-over bounce-backs)
Anibal Sanchez, Nationals
Marco Gonzales, Mariners
Kevin Gausman, Braves
CC Sabathia, Yankees
Mike Minor, Rangers
Sonny Gray, Reds
Wade Miley, Astros
Julio Teheran, Braves
Steven Matz, Mets
Lance Lynn, Rangers
Michael Pineda, Twins
Gio Gonzalez, Yankees

More SP deep sleepers

These pitchers are basically the same as in the last tier, just with even more question marks. There are plenty of talented pitchers in this tier, particularly the young sleepers Forrest Whitley, who's arguably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball, and Brent Honeywell, who was a top pitching prospect before missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. There will be some surprises that come from this tier, but it's tough to trust any on draft day unless you're in a deep league or you really waited on pitching.

TIER 6
Trevor Cahill, Angels
Danny Duffy, Royals
Jake Odorizzi, Twins
Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox
Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers
Tyler Anderson, Rockies
Dylan Bundy, Orioles
Trevor Richards, Marlins
Marcus Stroman, Blue Jays
Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays
Carlos Rodon, White Sox
Mike Leake, Mariners
Mike Fiers, A's
Jake Faria, Rays
Forrest Whitley, Astros
Mike Soroka, Braves
Brent Honeywell, Rays
Brad Keller, Royals
Matt Harvey, Angels
Anthony DeSclafani, Reds
Dereck Rodriguez, Giants
Lucas Giolito, White Sox
Jeff Samardzija, Giants
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Clay Buchholz, Blue Jays
Ryan Borucki, Blue Jays
Chase Anderson, Brewers
Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers
Drew Smyly, Rangers
Taijuan Walker, Diamondbacks
Ivan Nova, White Sox
Freddy Peralta, Brewers

Matt Lutovsky

Matt Lutovsky Photo

Matt Lutovsky has been a writer and editor for The Sporting News since 2007, primarily writing about fantasy sports, betting, and gaming.