Fantasy championship week in Week 16 is not the time to get too cute (even if you're in the semifinals and play through Week 17, that remains true). Our look at NFL snap counts this week, more than some, sticks with players that are on most rosters. Sure, we'll let you know whether Myles Gaskin is worth a waiver wire pickup, but we're also going to discuss James Conner and Raheem Mostert's start-or-sit outlooks. It's all about winning this one final week.
Our discussion below will start with Breshad Perriman, who probably should've been picked up last week but definitely should be now that Chris Godwin (hamstring) is out. Add his teammate Justin Watson, if you'd like, as well. Perriman is basically in must-start territory against the Texans in Week 16 if Mike Evans 9hamstring) and Godwin are out.
WEEK 16 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Conner returned from a shoulder injury and didn't get the workload you might've hoped for, but the snaps were there. You can expect his action to rise. Melvin Gordon's fumbles didn't appear to tank his usual workload much, either, and he should also remain in starting lineups for Week 16.
And there's our favorite, Mostert, who's probably been mentioned in here more than anyone through the course of a season full of committee workloads under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Only now, we're pretty confident Mostert has pushed that committee aside and made the 49ers' backfield his.
WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Beyond the names below, you can check out our 32-team breakdown of Week 15 snap counts here. It will hopefully give you the bit of extra insight you need to go and take home a trophy this week.
MORE WEEK 16:
Waiver pickups | FAAB planning | Stock watch | Snap counts | Fantasy playoff tips
Start or sit? Breshad Perriman, Justin Watson
Mike Evans was already out with a hamstring injury, and now with a Saturday game coming up for the Bucs, it looks like they may also be without Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller due to hamstring problems, too. That leaves Perriman and Watson as the top two receivers.
Perriman was working in two-wide sets with Godwin before the star got hurt, and he was well on his way to his final line of five catches for 113 yards and three touchdowns. Most of Watson's playing time came after Godwin left the game, but that left Watson as the clear WR2 by the end of the game. Watson was only targeted twice, catching both for 17 yards.
Jameis Winston had thrown to Watson eight times the week before, and that was with Godwin healthy, so we can probably expect positive regression to come for Watson. The Buccaneers take on a beatable Texans' pass defense on Saturday in Week 16.
If we assume that Evans, Godwin and Miller are all out with their hamstring injuries, Perriman is a must-start as Winston's top receiver. Watson is about as firmly a start in the FLEX range as you can get from a wideout playing in the week's first game. You'll have to commit early, but if Winston throws for at least 300 yards again, both Perriman and Watson should get theirs (with TEs O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate involved.)
MORE WEEK 16: Waiver pickups | Snap counts
Dolphins Snap Counts: Myles Gaskin vs. Patrick Laird
Just when we thought it might be time to go all-in on Laird against the Bengals in Week 16, Brian Flores threw the Gaskin curveball into the mix. Both backs played 34 snaps Sunday, and their touches weren't far off, either. Laird had 12 carries and caught two-of-five targets. Gaskin had nine carries and caught two-of-three targets.
Gaskin held the edge in yardage, gaining 72 yards total compared to Laird's 54. The usage, which came after Laird had previously held a wide edge over Gaskin in snaps, suggests the Dolphins want to see what their rookie back out of Washington can do down the stretch.
Week 16 will be the rare game where the Dolphins are favored as they take on an even worse Cincinnati team. If no information comes out on this split during the week, we'll have to operate under the assumption that it'll be a pretty balanced workload. That would limit both backs to FLEX value, at best. Laird would probably hold the edge in PPR formats while Gaskin's slightly higher big-play potential would give him the edge in standard leagues. The best-case scenario from a fantasy points perspective would be for the Dolphins to just give Gaskin 20 touches, but that seems unlikely to happen.
WEEK 16 DFS LINEUPS:
FD Cash | FD GPP | DK Cash | DK GPP | Y! Cash | Y! GPP
Start or sit? James Conner, Steelers RBs
Conner returned from his shoulder injury to play on Sunday night against the Bills, and on paper, his eight carries for 42 yards and four catches for nine yards were probably disappointing to fantasy owners (although he did score). Why wouldn't Pittsburgh give its best offensive player the ball more?
Well, I wish I could answer that question. But what I can tell you is Conner was on the field for 34 offensive plays, double that of the next closest Steelers RB (Jaylen Samuels, who was in for 17 plays). Conner's rate of only touching the ball on 12 of his 34 plays is low when put up against a number of the league's other top running backs, especially when you consider the lack of talent around him.
Pittsburgh gets to take on a Jets team with a lot less to play for in Week 16, and as long as Conner is healthy, Pittsburgh should realize its error and give Conner the ball more. He's already on the field plenty, so we'll assume he gets the football another five to eight times and has a big fantasy day in Week 16. If not, that's some terrible offensive play-calling by Pittsburgh.
MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup Builder
Chargers Snap Counts: Melvin Gordon vs. Austin Ekeler
Gordon caught a case of fumblitis on Sunday, losing two fumbles in what was a turnover-fest for the Chargers. That, along with L.A. getting blown out, led to plenty of time on the sideline for Gordon, who played 25 snaps compared to Austin Ekeler's 30 and Justin Jackson's 13. Gordon had contended with a similar split with Ekeler before, but the addition of more Jackson to the fray was new.
It seems more likely that Jackson was playing because L.A. was en route to losing 39-10 and not because Gordon was benched. Gordon still was given seven carries and seven targets (he caught five). Taking on the Raiders in Week 16 is still a good time to play Gordon as an RB2.
Ekeler, too, remains a fantasy starter at the very least in your FLEX spot in standard league. He also received seven carries and caught five-of-fseven targets Sunday, just like Gordon, although Ekeler went for 62 yards through the air and adds a higher floor each week due to his occasional down-the-field receiving. As long as L.A. can stay close to a stinky Raiders team, both backs should get numbers in Week 16.
Start or sit? Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida
Three straight weeks of the same thing have given us no choice but to believe in Mostert at this point. Sure, it seems weird that Kyle Shanahan would ride a committee so hard all season, only to turn to Mostert so heavily down the stretch, but that's exactly what he's doing.
Mostert has seen more than 30 snaps in three straight weeks, while no other San Francisco RB has seen more than 20 in an individual game. Mostert carried 14 times compared to four each for Coleman and Breida in Week 15. This is Mostert's backfield.
The 49ers play the Rams on Saturday night in Week 16, and while people talk a lot about Aaron Donald, there's not a lot else going right with the Rams stopping the run at this point. There's no reason to even consider Coleman or Breida, but Mostert is firmly in RB2 territory, to the point that there's almost no way he's anything worse than a FLEX play for anyone who owns him.
For snap count reactions for every team, click here.