Should you draft Melvin Gordon in fantasy football?

Billy Heyen

Should you draft Melvin Gordon in fantasy football? image

We're more than halfway through August and Melvin Gordon's holdout persists. Fantasy owners are throwing their hands in the air as they think back to Le'Veon Bell's situation last year. There's been some serious reaction in the rankings, as potential Chargers handcuffs Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler have seen their ADPs rise while Gordon has dropped a few rounds -- and will continue dropping if it looks like he's going to sit out the entire season.

We're here to try to make sense of it all. Will Gordon actually sit out the whole season? Which of Ekeler or Jackson is the better player and/or the more valuable fantasy pick? Have the Chargers dealt with something like this before? Hopefully, this helps you draft your way to a title even if the situation in L.A. isn't resolved. 

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Will Melvin Gordon play this year?

(Update 1: NFL Network reported that Gordon's holdout is "expected to continue into the season.")
(Update 8/28: ESPN's Chargers reporter wrote that he "expects" Gordon to play Week 1, but admitted on Twitter that was "just a hunch.")

(Updated 8/29: Gordon said on Twitter he's "offended" a fantasy owner wasn't sure if they should take Gordon in the sixth, prompting some to think that's a sign he'll suit up Week 1)
(Updated 8/31: The Chargers have allowed Gordon permission to seek a trade, making it all the more likely he won't play in LA this season.)

The short answer: No one knows. At first, it appears that Gordon's situation more closely mirrors Le'Veon Bell's 2018 than Ezekiel Elliott's current contract dispute. Bell could've played for a franchise tag salary while Gordon is still on his rookie deal, so the salary Gordon is looking at is even less. They parallel each other in that it's a one-year commitment if Gordon chooses to hold out all season.

Last year, we saw Bell sit out all year. Instead, he worked on his rap career, went into free agency, and signed a $51-million deal with the Jets. Considering that Gordon would be playing out this year for much less than the franchise tag total, he may have even more incentive to wait it out and become a free agent on fresh, healthy legs. 

However, nothing would stop the Chargers from hitting Gordon with the franchise tag following the season. Then, he'd have to hold out all season again to avoid being franchised a second time. If it came to that, Gordon would have missed two prime earning years.

Gordon is different than Bell in that Bell never actually signed his franchise tender. Under his contract, Gordon could run the risk of "tolling" his deal into next season. The Chargers would be able to appeal his deal to an abitrator, who could rule that Gordon's contract doesn't actually expire. Considering Gordon wants to hit free agency, that would be a nightmare scenario for him.

The newest NFL collective bargaining agreement reads that six games equal an "accrued season." While an arbitrator could rule differently, Gordon trying to push this rule to its limits would need to play in six games. 

The Chargers bye week comes rather well positioned for this situation, landing in Week 9. If Gordon showed up then, he'd have the potential to play in as many as eight games (while losing more than half of his salary). 

The other option the Chargers have is to trade Gordon. If that happens, it might take Gordon a while to get up to speed with the playbook, but he would have plenty of value once he's on the field (while also hurting the value of that team's current RBs).

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Melvin Gordon's fantasy ranking and ADP

In early mock drafts, Gordon was a solid first-round selection. He's fallen more than fellow holdout Ezekiel Elliott in recent drafting, though, going off the board No. 28 overall and No. 16 among runnning backs, per FantasyPros' composite ADP data

As with Elliott, Gordon will continue to fall the longer his holdout lasts. If you're drafting today, Gordon is coming off the board right after Damien Williams and Kerryon Johnson and just ahead of Devonta Freeman and Marlon Mack. In the third round, after you've probably already drafted at least one RB, Gordon feels like he could be a risk worth taking. 

We discussed above that there seems like plenty of reasons on paper for Gordon to take this holdout well into the season. There's no denying the overall risk you take on with him on your team, though it's not quite as high as the risk with Elliott if he doesn't play.

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Chargers Depth Chart: Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson loom as sleeper handcuffs

Here's where things get extra interesting for the Chargers: They have two other running backs on their roster who have shown, at least in limited samples, that they're productive NFL players. 

Ekeler enters his third year in the league after averaging more than five yards per carry on 106 totes in 2018. He added 39 catches and more than 10 yards per reception, so it's fair to say Ekeler could have some standalone value even if Gordon were to show up. Anthony Lynn has called Ekeler the strongest pound-for-pound player on the Chargers, so he can probably handle some early-down work, if needed.

The more obvious old-school, bellcow back in L.A. is Jackson. His rookie year was mostly quiet, as he simply didn't play much. He averaged more than four yards per carry along with nine yards per catch in his limited time in 2018. In his lone start, he carried 16 times for 58 yards and a TD. 

More than 20 RBs are being drafted between Ekeler and Jackson in current drafts. Ekeler is being drafted as a FLEX, while Jackson is being drafted in the more traditional handcuff range. Regardless, it feels like if you draft Gordon, you've got to snag at least one of these guys later in your draft, depending on which price you'd like to pay for an insurance policy. 

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Chargers holdout precedent

The Chargers have long been owned by the Spanos family, so recent holdouts could provide a clue as to what will happen here. The 2001 and '16 rookie contract holdouts of LaDainian Tomlinson and Joey Bosa don't quite apply, so it might be Vincent Jackson's '10 holdout that provides the biggest clues.

Jackson's situation was complicated by a three-game suspension to begin the season, but he ended up coming down to a similar "tolling" issue that Gordon could: If Jackson hadn't showed up when he did, served his suspension, then played in six games, he wouldn't have been eligible for free agency. The tricky part is saying whether Gordon's mind will feel the same way about that as Jackson did and report to ensure free agency after the season, but it seems like the Chargers won't mind standing their ground.

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Do NFL holdouts affect performance?

In the last decade-plus, a number of high-profile running backs have held out, and we'll look at four names from the past here: Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. 

Three of those four were injured in the ensuing season after they returned. It's not super easy to trace the missed training camp to injury (after all, Johnson had 416 carries the year prior), but with the resources NFL teams have now, it's probably possible for small nicks picked up on your own to get worse without perfect treatment. The one of that foursome who didn't get hurt was Chris Johnson, and he went on to have his worst season up to that point in his career.

Gordon is only 26; it wouldn't make sense for him to hit a natural decline yet. He did miss four games due to injury last year, so that's a bit of a concern, as he also missed games in 2015 and '16.

Le'Veon Bell held out through the whole preseason and rejoined the Steelers on Sept. 1 two years ago, though he showed few signs of slippage after a sluggish start to the season. He ultimately led the NFL with 406 touches in just 15 games.

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Melvin Gordon's fantasy outlook

People seem to have reacted more to Gordons holdout than Elliott's holdout, and that's why you'd have to spend a top-five pick to get Zeke but can get Gordon in the third round. Gordon doesn't seem likely to hold out the whole season, but he's probably more likely to sit out at least half the year than Elliott is. 

A trade would change everything. It would thrust Ekeler and Jackson into an assured spotlight while putting Gordon in a spot to succeed from Week 1 onward. Without a deal, though, you're entering into a situation without one obvious answer. Who knows when Gordon will return or who will get the bulk of the Chargers RB touches? If you want Ekeler, you'll have to pick him in the seventh round (and likely higher as we get closer to Week 1). Jackson will go lower, but he'll rapidly rise, as well.

If Gordon is in position to play 16 games, he's a first-round value. Getting him in the third round makes sense, but you have to be sure to snag at least one of his backups and devote more draft capital to one position. Given the headache, most will opt to avoid it completely.

Billy Heyen