Washington (1-6) travels to U.S. Bank Stadium to take on Minnesota (5-2) on Thursday Night Football in a battle between two teams headed in opposite directions led by two quarterbacks each looking for revenge against his old team. Washington enters this game as 17-point underdogs with the total set at 42 points, so you can imagine there's been plenty of action on both the moneyline and against the spread. As of early Thursday afternoon, 53 percent of the money has been wagered on the Vikings (per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard).
Washington began its season 0-5 before firing head coach Jay Gruden and replacing him with interim coach Bill Callahan. Washington has since beaten the Dolphins 17-16 (in a game that may have #TankForTua ramifications later in the season) and lost 9-0 to the 49ers in the 2019 Mud Bowl. In their first four games, the Vikings won both games outside of the division (Falcons, Raiders) and lost both divisional road matchups (Packers, Bears). Since the loss at Chicago, Minnesota has won three in a row at the Giants, at home against the Eagles, and at the Lions to advance to 5-2.
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Before the matchup with Philadelphia, Eagles linebacker Zach Brown called former teammate Kirk Cousins “probably the weakest part” of the Vikings offense. Cousins exposed the Eagles secondary by completing 22-of-29 passes for 333 yards and four touchdowns. As bad as it was for the Eagles, it was even worse for Brown, as he was cut by Philadelphia the following week. Cousins followed that performance with another stellar outing against Detroit by throwing four more touchdowns and passing for a season-high 338 yards.
After proving his naysayers wrong over the last few weeks, Cousins has a chance to beat Washington in his first game against the team that drafted him in 2012. When Cousins left Washington for Minnesota, Case Keenum left Minnesota for Denver before going to Washington this offseason. This is his first game against the Vikings since the team chose to pursue Cousins over him in free agency.
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Redskins Outlook
Washington has struggled in most facets thus far in 2019, with its only win of the season coming against the lowly Dolphins. The Redskins rank 29th in Football Outsiders’ Offensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) rating of -21.9 percent. They are 29th in total offense (267.6 total yards per game), 30th in scoring offense (12.9 points per game), and 28th with 4.9 yards per play. Washington has the No. 31 passing offense in the NFL and the 24th rushing offense at 84.7 rushing yards per game. With Chris Thompson out for this game, keep an eye on Adrian Peterson’s status leading up to kickoff, as he is listed as questionable because of ankle issues. One of the lone bright spots for Washington this season has been rookie receiver Terry McLaurin. His 419 receiving yards rank 29th, and he has the third most receiving touchdowns (5) through seven weeks. Washington has struggled mightily offensively and will likely need a big game from Case Keenum and McLaurin to keep this game competitive with health concerns at running back.
Defensively, Washington hasn’t been great either, but its past two games have yielded its two best defensive performances, as it held opponents to fewer than 20 points for the first time this season. Washington has the No. 24 defensive DVOA rating at 6.0 percent as it ranks 21st total defense (370.4 total yards per game allowed). The Redskins have the No. 12 passing defense (236.0 yards per game allowed) and the 27th rushing defense (134.4 yards per game allowed). Jonathen Allen leads the team with three sacks this season. Keep an eye on the status of cornerback Josh Norman (thigh), who is questionable leading up to kickoff. Even if Norman can’t play, the Vikings will be without one of their top receivers in Adam Thielen, but Washington will still need to find answers for Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs.
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Vikings outlook
The Vikings have had one of the NFL’s best offenses in 2019, and they have been anchored by a strong running game behind Dalvin Cook. Cook leads the NFL with 103.6 rushing yards per game and eight rushing touchdowns. The Vikings’ run-first offense has been effective in opening up play-action for Kirk Cousins, especially during Minnesota’s current three-game winning streak. Minnesota went from using play-action on 27 percent of passes over the first four weeks to using it on over 45 percent of passes in the past three weeks. Consequently, Cousins’s QB rating has improved from 88.6 over the first four weeks to 142.6 over the past three. Over the past two weeks, Cousins became the first player in NFL history to throw for more than 300 yards with a passer rating over 135.0 in consecutive games.
The Vikings rank third in rushing yards per game (160.0) and fourth with 5.0 yards per rush. As a result, the Minnesota offense averages the third most yards per play (6.4). Football Outsiders ranks them with the No. 6 offensive DVOA rating at 16.3 percent. Minnesota has the No. 6 scoring offense (27.4 points per game) and gains the sixth-most yards per game (391.1). With Adam Thielen is out for tonight’s game because of a hamstring injury, Stefon Diggs will look to continue his stellar season, as he ranks eighth in receiving yards among receivers (563) and eighth in receiving touchdowns (4).
Like the Minnesota offense, the defense has come to play thus far in 2019. The Vikings have the No. 10 defensive DVOA rating (-4.4 percent) as they are sixth in total defense (327.9 total yards per game allowed). They allow the eighth fewest yards per rush (3.8) and the seventh fewest rushing yards per game (90.0). Although the Vikings rank 15th in passing defense with 237.9 pass yards per game allowed, they are also ninth in sacks with 19 this season. Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen lead the team with seven and four sacks, respectively.
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Prediction
Our model favors the Vikings’ moneyline. Even without Adam Thielen available, Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, and a Kirk Cousins living his best life should be enough to win this matchup between quarterbacks looking for double revenge.
Week 8 Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools | Survivor poolsFind out if the BetQL algorithm projects Minnesota to cover the massive 17-point spread and view the other four bets that BetQL’s platform shows for this matchup!