One of the most compelling statistical storylines for PGA DFS players this week is the lack of relevant course history data. This RBC Canadian Open hasn’t been played at this course since 2012, which effectively leaves past results at Hamilton out of the daily fantasy golf lineup building process. Many DFS players weigh course history heavily in player selection, so the absence of the statistic will have a ripple effect with looks for sleepers and fades.
I expect that most of the emphasis normally given to course history will be transferred to anticipated course fit this week, leading to course fit being far too coveted. Moreover, I would argue that fit at Hamilton should in fact be approached even more tentatively than usual for this tournament considering that there is added uncertainty regarding how the course will play. Given that the DFS community is talking this week’s course up as one that favors shorter-hitting, more accurate golfers, I think this is an outstanding week to target strong, potentially overlooked golfers who are known more for their distance rather than their accuracy.
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RBC Canadian Open picks and PGA DFS strategy
Target Golfers
Justin Thomas has the fourth-highest Vegas odds in the field at 5.9 percent, but I am not so sure that will translate to heavy ownership. First off, he is known to be a golfer who generally gives up accuracy for distance, which certainly doesn’t profile as the type of golfer that would fit this week’s course. With that being said, the best golfers in the world tend to play well regardless of course fit, and Thomas is undoubtedly in that group. Additionally, in his first tournament returning from a wrist injury at last week’s Memorial Tournament, Thomas crushed those who bought in with a bad missed cut after an 8-over on Friday. On the flip side, he rewarded those who chose to be tentative and fade him due to the wrist injury. I expect this dynamic to help keep his ownership down, as many will either have a sour taste in their mouth or remain unconvinced of his health. However, if Thomas feels healthy enough to play tournaments in back-to-back weeks, that is a solid indicator that the injury is behind him. It’s likely there was an element of rust last week, and while it’s tough to project exactly when a player will shake off the cobwebs, Thomas is the caliber of golfer who may do so in quite a loud way.
At just slightly above-average salary, Bubba Watson has strong odds this week at 3.4 percent. Despite this, I expect the combination of a missed cut in his last appearance at the PGA Championship along with poor course fit to result in lower ownership than he deserves. Watson, of course, has had a magnificent career with 12 wins on the PGA Tour and two majors, but he has also had a resurgent season with two top-10 finishes and six top-25 finishes in 11 tries. Like Thomas, Watson is known for distance and tends to lag in the accuracy department. For his price, however, Watson offers big upside, and you don’t win 12 times on the PGA Tour because all you can do is drive it long.
DFS players may look to snag other course-fit options in Watson’s price range like Brandt Snedeker and Jim Furyk, both being given 2.4-percent Vegas odds and both of whom may end up higher owned than Watson. Vegas odds aren’t everything, but when you can grab a golfer for a full percent higher odds and leverage, it’s an opportunity worth targeting. Most golfers with a pair of top-10 finishes and a win on the season wouldn’t find themselves completely off the radar coming into this tournament, but that may be exactly the case for J.B. Holmes. Perhaps nothing describes his tendencies better than his results this year, with seven missed cuts, four top-25 finishes, two top-10 finishes and a win. Holmes is a textbook volatile golfer, which can be frustrating in DFS but also useful. Since his win in February, Holmes has been downright awful, making only two of seven cuts with a T61st as his best finish. That’s the bad news. But right before his win in February, Holmes had missed two out of three cuts and placed T138th in the previous tournament.
Suffice to say, while he can provide some nasty missed cuts, Holmes has a propensity for seemingly out-of-nowhere high finishes. He does not fit the course this week as another inaccurate bomber. The double whammy of horrendous form and poor course fit will produce what I expect to be practically nonexistent ownership on Holmes. For a low-priced golfer with five wins on the PGA Tour, this may be a more significant opportunity than meets the eye.
Aaron White graduated from Northwestern University with a B.A. in Economics. He has played DFS professionally for several years and has won featured NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and golf GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKing