It's a thinner NFL DFS Sunday main slate, as four teams are on bye (Bengals, Falcons, Rams, Saints) and there's a morning London game between the Texans and Jaguars. Even with some of those teams' stars out of action, there are plenty of intriguing options for FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments. As always, some players are being overvalued while others are being undervalued, and RotoGrinders is here with some Week 9 daily fantasy football projected ownership percentages to help inform your lineup picks.
Differentiation is especially important in GPPs, as hitting on the right low-owned players can vault you above your competition in a hurry. By looking at key DFS ownership projections from RotoGrinders, we can find the players who can help/hurt your lineups heading into the Week 9 slate of games.
WEEK 9 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
Week 9 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
LOW: Sam Darnold, Jets @ Dolphins (4.3% pOWN on FanDuel, 4.1% on DraftKings). The sledding has been tough for Darnold this season thanks to a bout with mono and a string of tough matchups as he finally got healthy. Things should be much easier for him and the Jets this weekend. He’s set to face off with a Miami defense that will be without Xavien Howard, by far it’s best cover corner and complete defensive back, and this defense has been putrid against the pass all season. Those simply looking at box scores won’t have Darnold on their radars in what very well could be a true boom spot for the Jets offense. This one also has one of the lowest totals of the weekend, but that’s due mainly to Miami’s inability to move the ball itself. Stack him up with Robby Anderson and/or Le’Veon Bell, and Jamison Crowder can also be thrown into the equation.
HIGH: Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Lions (10.2% pOWN on FanDuel, 11.3% on DraftKings). Carr is coming off of one of his best games of the year, and with this contest having a lofty total, the public is flocking to the Raiders signal-caller. I don’t really get it. I like the UNDER in this game given that both teams would prefer to be able to run the ball and grind the clock when they can. Carr has yet to throw the ball more than 38 times in a game this season and generally hangs in the 30-32 attempt range. Detroit's lack of punch at the RB spot will likely lead to it wanting to utilize Matthew Stafford to a higher degree, but I don’t think that in itself turns this into a high-scoring affair. As of this writing Carr is expected to be the third-most heavily owned QB on the slate, and he doesn’t deserve that much love. I don’t plan on including him in my builds at all.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Aaron Rodgers (@ Chargers)
Notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Jameis Winston (@ Seahawks)
WEEK 9 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 9 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
LOW: Josh Jacobs, Raiders vs. Lions (5.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.4% on DraftKings). While I'm repulsed by the idea of rostering a chalky Carr, I love the idea of rostering Jacobs at a low ownership. This is a fantastic spot for him as a home favorite, with Borgata Sportsbook currently having the Raiders favored by two. Jacobs has shown a massive ceiling in games that the Raiders are able to control, and while his passing-game usage still leaves something to be desired, he’s at least seeing a handful of targets each week and the coaching staff has noted previously that they’d like to see that tick upward. Oakland is in the top half of the league in rushing yards before contact (2.4) while the Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs, just a tick behind the lowly Bengals. Load up here.
HIGH: David Montgomery, Bears @ Eagles (10.9% pOWN on FanDuel, 12.8% on DraftKings). He was finally able to get workhorse usage against a poor Chargers defense, and that workload is leading to him being vastly overrated heading into Week 9. He’ll have to duel with an Eagles defense that only does one thing well at this point – defend the run. They will probably load the box and attempt to make Mitchell Trubisky beat their very beatable secondary, something I doubt he can do. The Bears have made a point to go more run-heavy, but I don’t see them being able to stick with it on Sunday. I’ve been overweight on Montgomery in the last few weeks, but I’ll be far underweight in Week 9, as I don’t see him even making it into my builds.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Marlon Mack (@ Steelers), Derrick Henry (@ Panthers)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Mark Walton (vs. Jets)
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WEEK 9 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 9 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
LOW: Robby Anderson, Jets @ Dolphins (6.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 7.5% on DraftKings). In case you can’t tell, I’m a big fan of the Jets aerial attack in GPPs this weekend. It’s much tougher to make a case for them in cash games given the floors of this group as a whole, but we’re far more concerned with ceilings in GPPs. Relative to their prices, this group has high ones. As I noted with Darnold, Xavien Howard’s absence is great news for the Jets, especially given how poorly this defensive unit has played against all facets. Anderson has struggled to show any sort of consistency so far this year, but keep in mind that Darnold’s multi-week absence has a lot to do with that. The Jets could barely move the ball with Luke Falk at the helm.
HIGH: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers vs. Colts (17.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 12.2% on DraftKings). If he were operating with a healthy Big Ben, I’d understand JuJu being among the most popular WR plays of the weekend. The bad news for JuJu is that he’s still catching passes from a backup. His target counts have dropped since Roethlisberger’s injury and he just doesn’t possess the same type of ceiling, so why pay the price for him? He’s certainly not cheap. This Colts-Steelers tilt also projects to be relatively low scoring rather than a back-and-forth affair, so I just genuinely don’t get why he’s gaining traction. There are too many better options in his price range to take the plunge.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Stefon Diggs (@ Chiefs), Allen Robinson (@ Eagles), D.J. Moore (vs. Titans)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: DK Metcalf (vs. Buccaneers), Marvin Jones (@ Raiders), Odell Beckham Jr. (@ Broncos)
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MORE WEEK 9 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup builder
Week 9 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
LOW: Jonnu Smith, Titans @ Panthers (2.6% pOWN on FanDuel, 2.5% on DraftKings). I’m a little torn on this one. Smith posted a huge 6-78-1 game on seven targets last weekend, but he’s still not running a ton of routes and Anthony Firkser has played a role with Delanie Walker (ankle) out, so it’s not like Smith is fully filling the shoes of the injured TE. However, he should be a focal point of the passing game in Week 9. The Panthers possess one of the best boundary CB groups in the league, likely leading to tough sledding for A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Ryan Tannehill has shown a liking for Smith, especially when you consider the number of targets Smith is seeing on a limited number of routes. I won’t be all that heavy on Smith, but I’ll definitely be overweight relative to the field.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Vance McDonald (vs. Colts)
Notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Zach Ertz (vs. Bears)