With injuries piling up and some normally chalk players unavailable for Sunday afternoon main-slate daily fantasy football contests (Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, Chris Godwin, Nick Chubb, etc.), the NFL DFS player pool certainly seems shallower than normal. But ultimately, lineups will need to be filled out for cash and GPP contests, and knowing projected ownership percentages is key when making your DraftKings and FanDuel picks.
With the help of ownership projections from RotoGrinders, we'll break down some key players so you can feel better about your lineups heading into the Week 7 slate of games.
WEEK 7 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP
Week 7 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
HIGH: Josh Allen, Bills vs. Dolphins (11.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 9.4% on DraftKings). I’m a big Allen fan, so this one hurts. I just don’t think he deserves to be one of the three or four most heavily owned QBs on this slate. I’d much prefer either QB in the Ravens-Seahawks tilt (which will likely be the game I’m heaviest on) and would also prefer Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Kyler Murray, or Daniel Jones in games that I think have legitimate shootout potential. I don’t see the Dolphins doing enough to force Buffalo into a pass-happy approach, and while Allen’s legs can lead to some big stat lines, I’m willing to bet against it at this ownership percentage. Miami’s defense is very vulnerable, but as huge favorites – if you're in Pennsylvania and interested in PA sports betting, the spread is at a whopping 17 points right now – I’d expect Buffalo to be running it much more on Sunday.
LOW: Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Cardinals (4.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.3% on DraftKings). Coming off an extended rest after playing Thursday in Week 6, Jones will get to take on one of the league’s fastest paced teams and a defense that has shown plenty of leaks in the early stages of the season. Arizona’s defense has also been friendly to rushing QBs and has not been able to generate turnovers, leading to the third most fantasy points allowed to QBs. It also helps that Jones should have Evan Engram back at his disposal after playing in Foxboro with a depleted group of weapons. Not only that, but Saquon Barkley is also due back, which should lead to more defensive attention on the running game. Sterling Shepard (concussion) is still expected to miss at least another game, but with Engram/Barkley back and budding chemistry with Golden Tate, there is big upside on Sunday for the rookie QB.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Deshaun Watson (@ Colts)
Notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Kirk Cousins (@ Lions)
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WEEK 7 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 7 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
HIGH: Mark Ingram, Ravens @ Seahawks (13.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 12.2% on DraftKings). It’s a little hard to fathom why people continually roster Ingram in large-field GPPs. He’s too TD dependent for a guy at his price, and he still isn’t seeing enough work in the passing game to be able to counteract a less than stellar rushing effort. There isn’t any doubt he’s the lead back in Baltimore, but Gus Edwards is still taking some work and Lamar Jackson is a decent bet to lead the team in rushing any given week, so there just isn’t enough of a ceiling here for me to chase Ingram in GPPs. I do love the Ravens-Seahawks game for stacking purposes, but Ingram will be the key piece that I have the fewest shares of come Sunday. I’d rather roster the RB on the other sideline in this game.
LOW: Todd Gurley, Rams @ Falcons (5.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 3.2% on DraftKings). Last time Gurley found himself in this section he had his first big explosion of 2019, and I’m hoping he follows that up with another big line in the game with the highest total of the weekend. I’d imagine that all three Rams receivers will be popular with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods leading the way, which could make Gurley somewhat of an afterthought. The fact that Latavius Murray is now slated to start for Alvin Kamara adds yet another chalky RB into the equation, further diminishing the ownership of Gurley. Malcolm Brown is dealing with an ankle issue and while Darrell Henderson flashed some upside in Gurley's absence last week, Gurley was handling the vast majority of snaps before being forced to miss Week 6. Does he get right back to that workload Sunday? That’s a legitimate question, and it’s going to scare away a good portion of the field, providing a contrarian player with a chance to capitalize on that uncertainty.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Tevin Coleman (@ Redskins), Aaron Jones (vs. Raiders)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Kerryon Johnson (vs. Vikings), Devonta Freeman (vs. Rams)
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WEEK 7 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 7 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
HIGH: T.Y. Hilton, Colts vs. Texans (15.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 20.7% on DraftKings). I have seen a number of tweets this week noting Hilton’s stat lines against the Texans over the past five-plus years, and while those numbers are strong, I don’t see any real correlation with those numbers and what we can expect on Sunday. Whatever Hilton did a few seasons ago with a completely different offense (against a very different defense) isn’t going to make me want to roster him Sunday. I don’t think Hilton is a bad play, but I think he’s being vastly overvalued in DFS circles this week. Houston’s defense is still vulnerable to players like Hilton and it does seem likely that he ends up being the most heavily targeted Colts pass-catcher, but at this ownership percentage in a game I’m not that interested in stacking, I’ll pass. I think you can argue that given the lack of talent behind Hilton in terms of aerial options, Houston will be able to dedicate some extra coverage to him.
LOW: DK Metcalf, Seahawks vs. Ravens (4.9% pOWN on FanDuel, 10.2% on DraftKings). I’m working under the assumption that Marlon Humphrey will be tasked with following Tyler Lockett for most of the day, a matchup that should bode well for Metcalf’s target share. Per Gridiron IQ, Metcalf is far and away leading the team in receiving yardage against man coverage. He’s been targeted 21 times in those situations (compared to 13 for Lockett) with 242 yards (75 for Lockett), and we should see plenty of man coverage out of the Baltimore defense on Sunday. I’d once again expect him to see a big piece of the pie with Lockett likely tangled with Humphrey, and the big-play upside he boasts only further adds to his appeal. The loss of Will Dissly (Achillles'( for the season could also open up a few looks, as the combination of Luke Willson and Jacob Hollister doesn’t figure to eat up all of what Dissly left behind.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: DJ Chark (@ Bengals), Golden Tate (vs. Cardinals), Dante Pettis (@ Redskins)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Adam Thielen (@ Lions, Stefon Diggs (@ Lions), Terry McLaurin (vs. 49ers), John Brown (vs. Dolphins), Kenny Golladay (vs. Vikings)
MORE WEEK 7 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup Builder
Week 7 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
HIGH: George Kittle, 49ers @ Redskins (18.2% pOWN on FanDuel, 7.7% on DraftKings). Kittle is one of the top overall plays at the position on Sunday, but he will face off with a Redskins team that should make it tough for the 49ers to keep their foot on the pedal. San Francisco enters as a 10-point road favorite in a game with one of the lowest totals of the weekend, something that generally doesn’t lead to big receiving stat lines. Outside of New Orleans-Chicago, this is the lowest totaled game on the slate. I’d much prefer the savings with a guy like Mark Andrews, who is finally off the injury report and looks to build on his success without Marquise Brown (ankle) in the lineup (Brown missed practice again Friday, making it look like he’s going to sit out Sunday). I’d also give the nod to Evan Engram at a similar price tag in a game that I expect to be much higher scoring.
LOW: Gerald Everett, Rams @ Falcons (0.7% pOWN on FanDuel, 1.8% on DraftKings). With Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley all viable targets for the LA offense, Everett should carry next to no ownership but still has a chance to spoil the stat lines of the players above him in the pecking order. Everett has seen five, 11 and eight targets, respectively, in his past three games, a big uptick from the start of the season, and he’s been fairly productive with those looks. It’s a risky week to go hunting too far down the TE pool, but Everett has TD potential in the highest totaled game of the weekend and provides an opportunity to get exposure to LA while still going against the grain.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Jeremy Sprinkle (vs. 49ers)
Notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Hunter Henry (@ Titans)