We’re on to Week 5. On the heels of yet another exciting Thursday night game with plenty of scoring, we have a big NFL DFS slate ahead of us with almost all of the action kicking off at 1 p.m. ET. The afternoon slate has just two games. As always, we're here to to help with lineup picks by looking at some key players with high or low projected ownership in DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
We now have four weeks of data to help inform our daily fantasy football decisions, but injuries and returning players can shake things up in a hurry. Some overreact to new developments, while others don't see to notice potential value. By looking at ownership projections on RotoGrinders, we can ensure that differentiation we need to win big in Week NFL DFS tournaments.
WEEK 5 DFS LINEUPS:
Y! cash | Y! GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP
Week 5 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
LOW: Matt Ryan, Falcons @ Texans (6.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.4% on DraftKings). The QB pool is fairly spread out in terms of projected ownership this week. That’s mainly due to the absence of a clear top dog in terms of stackable games. This one looks like it could be one of the most shootout friendly matchups. Deshaun Watson is getting the attention he deserves – he’s the leader in pOWN on both sites – but Matty Ice doesn’t seem to be generating as much buzz. He’ll have to deal with a strong Houston pass rush, but he still has got a bevy of weapons at his disposal with Austin Hooper taking a step forward this season to add a stronger ancillary piece alongside Julio Jones and the receivers. Jones is the clear top stacking partner along with Ryan, but both Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper are squarely in the conversation. Including one along with Ryan/Julio sets up as a nice team stack, which can be run back with DeAndre Hopkins or (hold your nose) Will Fuller.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Andy Dalton (vs. Cardinals), Teddy Bridgewater (vs. Buccaneers)
Notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Jameis Winston (@ Saints)
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WEEK 5 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 5 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
LOW: Devonta Freeman, Falcons @ Texans (6.3% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.6% on DraftKings). Don’t forget about Freeman in Falcons-Texans stacks, and he’s a fine standalone target in his own right. A touchdown darling a few seasons ago, Freeman has yet to find the painted grass to this point in the season, but given his workload and role in the offense, that’ll change very soon. He lost a score to Ito Smith this past Sunday, but he still had 20 touches to Smith’s four and showed his pass-catching chops which should be useful against Houston’s defense. Smith had just one touch in the Week 3 game and isn’t looking like he’s a threat to Freeman’s workload at this point. The lack of TDs is the only thing keeping Freeman’s price tag this low, so I’ll be hopping aboard again on Sunday hoping for some positive regression.
HIGH: Le’Veon Bell, Jets @ Eagles (16.2% pOWN on FanDuel, 11.9% on DraftKings). It’s hard to argue with the workload here, but the Eagles are much tougher on the run than they are the pass, and I think they’ll key in even further on the ground game Sunday. Luke Falk has shown no ability to move the ball down the field, and the Jets don’t boast any backbreaking talents at the WR/TE position unless Robby Anderson can get behind the Birds for a deep ball. We should see plenty of stacked boxes while the Jets are on the field, and it’s fairly straightforward for Philly’s defense in the sense that stopping Bell should be far and away at the top of the priority list. The Jets are two-TD underdogs (plus-13.5 on Borgata Sportsbook – use RotoGrinders' Borgata Sportsbook promo code for a great bonus) with one of the lowest team totals on the board, and those are two factors I do not generally like when paying a premium at the RB spot. Bell’s pass-catching abilities will help here, but at this ownership I’ll look to pivot elsewhere.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Jordan Howard (vs. Jets), David Montgomery (vs. Raiders in UK)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: James Conner (vs. Ravens)
WEEK 5 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 5 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
LOW: Josh Gordon, Patriots @ Redskins (3.6% pOWN on FanDuel, 2.6% on DraftKings). The Patriots offense stumbled a bit in a tough road draw with the Bills, but things couldn’t be much different this Sunday. While I can see the public being wary of targeting Patriots pass-catchers in a game they are expected to dominate, they are going to be able to exploit this defense through the air and shouldn’t struggle to put up points, so I’m attacking this unit hard. Antonio Brown is out of town, Julian Edelman is still a little banged up, and the Pats are getting next to nothing from the TE spot, so I think Gordon makes plenty of sense as a guy to be way overweight on in tournaments. I wouldn’t argue with rostering Edelman (questionable as of this writing but seems likely to play) or Phillip Dorsett either, but Gordon is my favorite of the bunch. I love the price, projected ownership, and ceiling here.
HIGH: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers @ Saints (17.0% pOWN on FanDuel, 18.4% on DraftKings). After being iffy for most of last week, Godwin came out and exploded for one of the biggest stat lines by a receiver we’re likely to see all season. While that’s a great sign that his injury isn’t anything to be concerned about, his draw this weekend is tougher and I don’t see this game boasting anywhere near the same type of shootout potential we saw when Godwin ran wild on the Rams. I’d lean toward the under in this game from a sports betting perspective. Not only is he expected to be one of the most popular plays at WR, Godwin is also among the most expensive, so I’ll look to play the fade here and pay up a little more for the primary receivers in the Falcons-Texans game, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Julian Edelman (@ Redskins), Alshon Jeffery (vs. Jets), Calvin Ridley (@ Texans), Philip Dorsett (@ Redskins), Jake Kumerow (@ Cowboys)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Mike Evans (@ Saints), Golden Tate (vs. Vikings)
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MORE WEEK 5 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup builder
Week 5 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
LOW: Jimmy Graham, Packers @ Cowboys (1.0% pOWN on FanDuel and DraftKings). With Davante Adams out, we should see Graham become a bigger part of the aerial attack on Sunday afternoon. I do have interest in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison – both of whom are expected to be very popular – but Graham doesn’t seem to be generating anywhere near as much buzz. He’s coming off of a season high in targets with Adams missing most of the second half against Philly, and given how important Adams was to the Packers red-zone success, we should see some of that siphoned off by Graham. I don’t love the idea of stacking the Packers-Cowboys matchup, but I’ll be picking plenty of individual plays from this one and Graham will be high on the list for tournaments.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Austin Hooper (@ Texans), Greg Olsen (vs. Jaguars)
Notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Tyler Eifert (vs. Cardinals)