Week 4 is on the doorstep and it’s wild that we’re already a few days from the season’s first quarter being completed. This should be another fun week with plenty of scoring potential on the NFL DFS slate (outside of what figure to be a couple defensive battles in the 4:25 p.m. ET games). With surprise players emerging and statstical trends starting to take form, those in DraftKings and FanDuel contests have to be careful about overvaluing the chalk plays and fading potential sleepers. Knowing daily fantasy football projected ownership percentages is key when trying to find ways to differentiate your lineup picks from the masses.
As we do every week, we'll be using RotoGrinders' Projected Ownership numbers as a reference. Let’s dive into Week 4!
WEEK 4 DFS LINEUPS:
DK cash | DK GPP | FD cash | FD GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
Week 4 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
LOW: Jared Goff, Rams vs. Buccaneers (5.1-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 5.4 percent on DraftKings). We saw this plenty last year, but Goff has extreme home-road splits in terms of fantasy production, generally faring much better in Los Angeles. He’ll get to match up with a Tampa Bay defense that showed some prowess against a banged-up Cam Newton and a middling 49ers offense but was thrashed by Daniel Jones in his debut this past Sunday. Goff doesn’t add much value with his legs, which usually keeps his ownership in check most weeks, but with guys like Russell Wilson and Jones expected to garner a ton of public attention, Goff’s tournament upside is there in a game that has some shootout potential. The Bucs sieved production out of the slot last week, and that puts Cooper Kupp at the top of my stacking partners list. It doesn’t hurt that both he and Brandin Cooks have excellent ratings against man coverage per GridironIQ.
HIGH: Daniel Jones, Giants vs. Redskins (10.3-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 12.5 percent on DraftKings). Look, this one could absolutely work out and a matchup with Washington’s pass defense is very inviting, but I have a hard time pulling the trigger here with Jones expected to be the most highly owned QB on DraftKings. Recency bias seems to be taking this one a little overboard. Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard are healthy, but the Giants are now without Saquon Barkley and don’t have a healthy group of (NFL-caliber) receivers behind Shepard, so it’s not like Jones has a lot to work with. There are a handful of mouth-watering QB spots (Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson quickly come to mind), so I’ll look to steer clear and bank on some bigger performances elsewhere.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Matthew Stafford (vs. KC), Josh Allen (vs. NE), Kyle Allen (@ HOU)
Other notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Philip Rivers (@ MIA)
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WEEK 4 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 4 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
LOW: Todd Gurley, Rams vs. Buccaners (2.0-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 4.1 percent on DraftKings). Stacking him up with Jared Goff seems like a losing proposition outside of a bigger game stack due to the lack of target share for Gurley to date, but at his current price tag and projected ownership, there is a ceiling here. I prefer targeting Gurley on FanDuel where pass-catchers aren’t valued quite as heavily. It would stand to reason that the passing game work will start to pick up after Gurley was up to about 76 percent of snaps (per GridironIQ) in Week 3, with Malcolm Brown not seeing as much action as he did back in Week 1 when he had two red-zone scores. Tampa isn’t an easy test for RBs, but as a home favorite (you can find the latest odds at the FanDuel Sportsbook if you want to back the Rams) playing three-quarters of the snaps, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Gurley post a box score that brings us back to 2017-18 vintage Gurley.
HIGH: Kerryon Johnson, Lions vs. Chiefs (18.4-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 17.7 percent on DraftKings). The release of C.J. Anderson brought about an increased role, and it’s also bringing increased attention from the DFS community. Johnson has a number of things working against him. Let’s start with the fact that he’s a touchdown underdog. It’s rare to see a RB at his price without consistent passing-game usage get this much love as a 6.5-point dog. Johnson has seen just six targets through three weeks and only saw one with an expanded role last week, although that was in a game that the Lions controlled. If the Lions defense bends to arguably the league’s most explosive offense – and I think it will – it will make it tougher for the Lions to establish a ground game that has looked lackluster to date.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Mark Ingram (vs. CLE), Sony Michel (@ BUF), Chris Thompson (@ NYG), LeSean McCoy (@ DET), Darrel Williams (@ DET)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: David Johnson (vs. SEA), Derrick Henry (@ ATL), Nick Chubb (@ BAL)
WEEK 4 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 4 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
LOW: D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks @ Cardinals (6.0-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 7.5 percent on DraftKings). Arizona is playing at an incredibly fast pace, something that can backfire defensively if the offense isn’t clicking. I’m willing to bet on Seattle’s defense standing up to the test of Kyler Murray, and this draw couldn’t be much better for the Seahawks skill players. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most completions of over 20 yards so far this season and will have their hands full with Tyler Lockett, leaving big-play threat Metcalf with the potential for a little extra room to operate. I don’t know that we’ll see Arizona throw double-teams at Lockett like we did when Seattle met Cincinnati in Week 1, but after a few big back-to-back games, it’s a possibility. Will Dissly’s hot early-season touchdown run likely won’t continue for long, so expect some other mouths to be fed.
HIGH: Terry McLaurin, Redskins @ Giants (25.5-percent pOWN on DraftKings, 8.1 percent on FanDuel). His price is still laughably low on DraftKings, so expect a lot of traction there. McLaurin has been the most exciting rookie WR to date and has scored a touchdown in each of his three games. It’s not wise to fade players simply because they are producing, but I’m having a hard time believing this run continues for too long given Washington's quarterback play. Even if the Redskins were to turn away from Case Keenum, expecting better from Dwayne Haskins doesn’t seem bankable. It’s also worth noting that McLaurin popped up on the injury report with a hamstring issue on Thursday and was only able to get in a limited practice. It still seems very likely he plays, but a hamstring issue isn’t a great omen for a wide receiver that relies heavily on speed.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Cooper Kupp (vs. TB), Brandin Cooks (vs. TB), Julian Edelman (@ BUF), Will Fuller (vs. CAR), Curtis Samuel (@ HOU)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Larry Fitzgerald (vs. SEA), Christian Kirk (vs. SEA), Odell Beckham (@ BAL)
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MORE WEEK 4 DFS: Top values | Stacks | Lineup Builder
Week 4 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
LOW: Greg Olsen, Panthers @ Texans (6.5-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 6.9 percent on DraftKings). In a not-so-surprising development, the Panthers pass-catchers appear to be better off with Kyle Allen at the helm, at least while Cam Newton is banged up. Allen showed no hesitancy looking toward Olsen in Week 3 (6-75-2 on seven targets), and while Olsen may have shown some signs of being washed up last year, he’s second among TEs in air yards through three weeks and will likely continue to be counted on in close, so I’ll be looking to get exposure here in one of my favorite games to stack on the main slate.
HIGH: Will Dissly, Seahawks @ Cardinals (16.2-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 17.3 percent on DraftKings). Can you really stomach Dissly as a highly owned option? He’s been great in the red zone with three touchdowns in his past two games, one of which came on an untimed down at the end of the game on Sunday with the Seahawks down two scores. As good as he’s been in close and as much as Russell Wilson apparently trusts him down there, it’s hard to buy in when he’s expected to be the most popular play at the position. Arizona is a great draw for TEs and that will likely continue to be the case if they continue to play D.J. Swearinger. Dissly is currently leading the TE position in fantasy points per touch, and that is a decent place to look for incoming regression.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Delanie Walker (@ ATL), Vernon Davis (@NYG)
Other notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Mark Andrews (vs. CLE), Austin Hooper (vs. TEN)