We now have a few weeks of data to help inform our Week 3 NFL DFS decisions, and while those surface stats are helpful, the public is tends to overvalue basic numbers like yards and TDs. This creates solid buy-low opportunities over the next few weeks as sharp daily fantasy football players fade guys likely to regress and target guys who have been getting opportunities but just haven't produced yet. By looking at ownership projections, we can ensure that differentiantion we need to win big in DraftKings and FanDuel tournaments.
As we do every week, we'll be using RotoGrinders' Projected Ownership numbers as a reference. Let’s dive into Week 3!
Week 3 DFS Lineups:
FD cash | FD GPP | DK cash | DK GPP | Y! cash | Y! GPP
Week 3 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
LOW: Matthew Stafford (2.6-percent pOWN on FanDuel using RotoGrinders' Projected Ownership, 2.8 percent on DraftKings). Stafford’s ceiling is going to be capped most weeks due to the Lions offensive philosophy which is centered around running the ball, but he’s in a spot this week where it will make more sense for the Lions to attack via the air. Not only is Stafford a touchdown underdog on the road (check out Week 3 NFL odds to see if the line shifts at all), but he’s also facing one of the league’s better run-stopping units that has been gashed by the pass through two weeks. Defensive line injuries are playing a role in Philly’s inability to slow down aerial attacks, and its secondary is still far from an area of strength. I actually think the Lions might be the toughest test for the Eagles yet (keep in mind they allowed big statistical games to Case Keenum and Matt Ryan so far). Kenny Golladay is my favorite stacking partner with Stafford, as the Eagles have particularly struggled on the perimeter.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Deshaun Watson (@ LAC)
Other notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Kyler Murray (vs. CAR), Daniel Jones (@ TB)
WEEK 3 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 3 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
Low: Sony Michel, Patriots vs. Jets (4.6-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 9.3-percent pOWN on DraftKings). It’s odd to me that Michel is expected to be more popular on DK given that his skill set is better suited for FanDuel and he isn’t overly pricey on either site. Regardless, I think he’s being undervalued on both sites. While it might not have as easy of a time as it did last week, New England should still control this one from the get-go, and I’d expect them to be churning clock with the ground game for a large portion of the afternoon. Much like Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins, I don’t see Luke Falk being able to sustain drives and keep New England’s offense off the field. The lack of receiving chops does keep Michel’s floor pretty low most weeks, but it’s tough to envision this game being in doubt late. The two-touchdown upside is absolutely there.
High: Kerryon Johnson, Lions @ Eagles (7.4-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 9.4-percent pOWN on DraftKings). The reasons I like Stafford are in tune with why I’m not on Johnson this week. Philly is much easier to beat via the air, and Detroit comes into Sunday as a near-touchdown underdog on the road. (If you're in Pennsylvania and interested in PA online sports betting, you can find the line at either +6 or +6.5 right now.) That doesn’t bode particularly well for a back who isn’t seeing bell-cow usage despite his team being run-oriented. CJ Anderson’s departure could lead to some extra work, but it still feels like the Lions are going to cycle in backs behind Johnson. Without a 20-touch outlook, I’m not going to be buying in here.
Other notable RBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Matt Breida (vs. PIT), Joe Mixon (@ BUF), Frank Gore (vs. CIN)
Other notable RBs that I think are being overvalued: Chris Carson (vs. NO)
WEEK 3 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 3 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Low: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Saints (6.9-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 5.9-percent pOWN on DraftKings). After spending most of Week 1 against double teams, Lockett found some space last week and figures to remain Wilson’s top target in the passing game. D.K. Metcalf has looked solid in his first few games, but some of that should be marked up to the extra coverage Lockett has received. New Orleans has some strengths on the defensive side of the ball, but covering slot receivers is not one of them and Lockett is still running the majority of his routes on the inside. There will always be some concern rostering Seattle pass-catchers in games they are favored in, but they’ll have to get ahead somehow and we could get Lockett at a low ownership percentage thanks to the injuries to the Saints offense, which figures to keep the game stacks way down.
High: Nelson Agholor, Eagles vs. Lions (30.0-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 32.5-percent pOWN on DraftKings). I’m perfectly content with this play in cash games, but at this type of ownership in GPPs, I’ll be looking for pivots with similar ceilings at far lower ownership. There is still some inklings that Alshon Jeffery (calf) might be able to go despite not having practiced this week, and there are still a number of potential mouths to feed in this passing game despite the injuries. JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Mack Hollins still figure to play roles if Jeffery sits, and Zach Ertz will command his fair share of looks -- and that’s not even accounting for the targets to RBs. Any time I’m forced to decide on a WR at enormous ownership with potential flaws, I’ll aim to be underweight in my NFL DFS lineups.
Other notable WRs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Kenny Golladay (@ PHI), DeAndre Hopkins (@ LAC), Davante Adams (vs. DEN), Devin Smith (vs. MIA), Mecole Hardman (vs. BAL), Marquise Goodwin (@ PIT)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Emmanuel Sanders (@ GB), JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ SF)
MORE WEEK 3 DFS: Stacks | Top values | Lineup Builder
Week 3 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
Low: Jared Cook, Saints @ Seahawks (1.3-percent pOWN on FanDuel, 0.90-percent pOWN on DraftKings). It’s been a very slow start for Cook as a Saint, but there are some potential positives heading into Week 3, which, yes, is a a weird thing to say with Drew Brees out. Tight ends have been extremely efficient against Seattle to date (Vance McDonald is coming off of a seven-catch, two-touchdown game on seven looks), and with the Saints unlikely to push the ball down the field often with Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill at QB, we could see some extra looks shade toward Cook. He’s far from a bankable play, and this isn’t someone I’d look to roster in cash games, but there is a GPP ceiling here.
Other notable TEs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Austin Hooper (@ IND), Jimmy Graham (vs. DEN)
Other notable TEs that I think are being overvalued: Greg Olsen (@ ARI)