We’re onto the regular season finale. Week 17 brings about a lot of interesting storylines that heavily impact NFL DFS viability for teams and players – some are fighting for playoff berths or seeding, others are resting starters to get ready for the playoffs, and a good chunk of the league has been out of contention for weeks. The RotoGrinders' NFL DFS Projected Ownership numbers for DraftKings and FanDuel contests are sure to fluctuate leading up to Sunday's kickoffs, but we're here a little earlier with our weekly report to help inform your daily fantasy football picks.
We will still go position-by-position and note potential fades/underowned plays based on our projected ownership, but we will present them in a slightly different way than usual. As we approach Sunday, be sure to check out Scores and Odds to track how the betting lines have moved. Once the games start, you'll also be able to see how your players are performing using their live scoreboard.
WEEK 17 DFS LINEUPS:
DK Cash | DK GPP | Y! GPP | FD Cash
Week 17 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Right off the bat, it’s worth noting that Lamar Jackson isn’t going to play on Sunday, setting the stage for Robert Griffin III (vs. Steelers) to start. The coaching staff has hinted that Trace McSorley will get a chance to see some time also, which does put a cap on Griffin’s floor and ceiling. Kirk Cousins (vs. Bears) is another starter who will take a seat with the Vikings having locked up the No. 6 seed in the NFC.
Fortunately there aren’t many QBs sitting or at risk of playing limited snaps. Ryan Tannehill (9.0% pOWN on both FanDuel and DraftKings) will be trying to secure a playoff spot for the Titans in a divisional road game with the Texans, with the Vegas odds currently showing Tennessee favored by five points. It’s a nice little bonus that Tannehill will get to do battle indoors against a Houston defense he’s already exploited this season, and I’ll be invested in the Tennessee signal caller even with Derrick Henry (hamstring) set to return from a one-week absence.
Carson Wentz (13.5% pOWN on FanDuel, 13.0% on DraftKings) and the Eagles need a win to secure the NFC East. They squared off with this Giants team a few weeks ago and were able to squeak out a win late, and will see Daniel Jones as opposed to Eli Manning in Week 17. With Zach Ertz (ribs, back) out and Wentz already down a number of his top pass-catchers, I won’t be investing in his services on Sunday. He’s projected to be the most popular QB on the slate, and I’m not sure his ceiling warrants that. New York does not have an imposing pass defense by any stretch, but I don’t know that the Eagles have the pass-catches necessary to exploit it fully.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Deshaun Watson (vs. Titans), Matt Ryan (@ Buccaneers)
Other notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Tom Brady (vs. Dolphins)
MORE WEEK 17 DFS: Values | Lineup Builder
Week 17 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
Despite his team being out of playoff contention, the Panthers reportedly won’t limit Christian McCaffrey’s snaps against the Saints. He still has some potential milestones to hit, so the top dog in the RB pool is still squarely in play across the board. Besides Mark Ingram (calf) sitting out and opening the door for Justice Hill, there isn’t much to report in terms of regulars sitting.
Miles Sanders (@ Giants) and Joe Mixon (vs. Browns) are both projected at or under seven percent pOWN on both FanDuel and DraftKings. They have very different motivations – Sanders is fighting for a playoff spot while Mixon is simply trying to close the season on a high note against a division opponent – but both have intriguing GPP upside. The Browns are in somewhat of a letdown spot. They had postseason aspirations heading into the year, they have dysfunction among their best skill players, and they will be ending the season against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Mixon already touched them up in the first meeting between these teams, and I’d expect the Bengals to feed him heavily once again.
As for Sanders, Jordan Howard’s return adds some uncertainty, but with how well the Eagles backs have been playing I don’t see Howard working in much. Sanders has added a lot in the receiving game with how banged up the Eagles are at WR and TE, and I don’t expect that to change at all on Sunday.
RBs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Nick Chubb (@ Bengals)
RBs that I think are being overvalued: Damien Williams (vs. Chargers)
WEEK 17 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 17 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
I briefly touched on the dysfunction in Cleveland, and not only has Odell Beckham disappointed, but he’s also dealing with myriad injuries heading into Sunday along with an illness. I’d still expect he’ll play, but I do like the upside for Jarvis Landry (8% pOWN on FanDuel, 3% on DraftKings) in his season finale against the Bengals. Much like he’s been throughout his career, Landry has been a target monster for Baker Mayfield, and a plus draw with Cincinnati’s secondary should afford the Browns with some chunk play potential. I prefer Landry on DraftKings thanks to the full-point PPR scoring.
Despite the fact that he’s going to be popular, I’ll be on the Steven Sims (@ Cowboys) bandwagon come Sunday. Terry McLaurin (concussion) has been ruled out, and the rookie was eating up a big target share in the Washington offense. It’s also a plus for Sims that he’ll have Case Keenum under center, a better passer compared to first-round rookie Dwayne Haskins. Sims should be in store to lead the 'Skins in target share, and at his current price tag across the industry, I’ll be invested in cash games and GPPs.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Robert Woods (vs. Cardinals), Russell Gage (@ Buccaneers)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: John Ross (vs. Browns), Courtland Sutton (vs. Raiders)
WEEK 17 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 17 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
With Ertz (ribs, back) out in what is essentially a must-win for the Eagles against the Giants, Dallas Goedert (9% pOWN on FanDuel and 16% on DraftKings as of now, but those numbers will rise after the Ertz news) should play an integral role in the Philly offense against the Giants. They are a team that can be attacked with TEs, and with no real talent at WR or behind him at TE, Goedert should command Ertz-like target counts and has a shot to be the highest scoring player at the position.
If you’re looking for something on the cheaper/contrarian side, Kaden Smith (vs. Eagles) has appeal on the other side of the matchup. Evan Engram remains out, and Smith has been playing the vast majority of the snaps for the Giants and is running routes regularly, and as we saw last week he is absolutely an option for Daniel Jones in the red zone.
One last thing to keep in mind – our projected ownership page will likely change a bit from this writing until Sunday morning. There is still plenty of news we’re waiting on and it’s not uncommon for some surprise news to drop a couple hours before kickoff. Stay up to date with pOWN through the weekend and make sure to keep an eye on the RotoGrinders DFS Alerts!