Week 16 is upon us, and not only does it bring about three solid Saturday games, but we have several Sunday contests that will go a long way in determining playoff spots/seeding. I’m only going to cover the Sunday NFL DFS slate here, but each of the three Saturday games offer appeal from either a fantasy or real-life perspective and will be a nice appetizer for a full plate of daily fantasy football and legal sports betting action on Sunday. As always, we'll use RotoGrinders' NFL DFS Projected Ownership numbers to help inform our DraftKings and FanDuel picks.
ONLINE GAMBLING UPDATE: In addition to the introduction of legal sports betting in a growing number of states, we now have regulated online poker in Pennsylvania, as well as other states like New Jersey. The online gambling industry is certainly full steam ahead here in the US.
SATURDAY DFS: DraftKings main slate lineup | Showdown lineups
Now, let’s get into the Week 16 analysis…
WEEK 16 DFS LINEUPS:
FD Cash | FD GPP | DK Cash | DK GPP | Y! Cash | Y! GPP
Week 16 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Quarterback
LOW: Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ Seahawks (5.8% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.2% on DraftKings). With Russell Wilson projected to be the most popular QB on the slate – more on him later – Murray is likely to go overlooked in what should be a plus spot for the rookie signal-caller. Despite taking a clear step back this season, Seattle’s defense still seems to get some public love despite that unit not really being a strength for Pete Carroll at this point. They struggle to generate pressure and are dealing with some injuries on the back end, and their zone scheme should be something Murray will exploit. It’s also nice that Murray’s stacking partners are straightforward – Christian Kirk is far and away the top option in that regard, and Larry Fitzgerald the only other DFS-viable pass-catcher involved in the offense. Kenyan Drake is another potential game-stack piece.
HIGH: Russell Wilson, Seahawks vs. Cardinals (16.9% pOWN on both FanDuel and DraftKings). I’ll start by saying that Wilson is a fine play in any format and has one of the highest raw projections on the slate behind only Lamar Jackson. There are absolutely avenues for him to have a successful outing and post a score suitable for GPPs, but given how popular he’s going to be in a game that the Seahawks could control, I’ll look to pivot to either Jackson or a lower-priced option with a similar ceiling in Murray. Wilson’s biggest volume games tend to come when the Seahawks are being pushed and aren’t in full control, and while that is absolutely a possibility if Arizona’s offense clicks, I’d say it’s more likely that Seattle spends a lot of time playing with a lead.
Other notable QBs at low ownership with a chance to boom: Drew Brees (@ Titans), Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. Bengals)
Other notable QBs that I think are being overvalued: Andy Dalton (@ Dolphins)
MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Stacks | Values | Lineup Builder
Week 16 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Running Back
LOW: Phillip Lindsay, Broncos vs. Lions (12.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.7% on DraftKings). Against a Lions team led by David Blough, the Broncos are in good position to control this one at home and rely on their ground game early and often. Those looking at box scores might be a little wary of Lindsay – he had just seven carries last week and has exceeded 10 FPs just once in his past five games – but this is a potential smash spot and Lindsay is always more trustworthy in games the Broncos play even or from ahead. The biggest knock on Lindsay is his lack of receiving work, but if you throw two or three targets on top of 17-20 carries with some goal-line work, Lindsay’s price tag across the industry looks too low.
HIGH: DeAndre Washington, Raiders @ Chargers (39.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 42.3% on DraftKings). Look, on DraftKings I completely understand rostering Washington at $4K in cash games, but I can’t get behind him in tournaments. He has a few factors working against him. The Raiders enter this one as touchdown underdogs on the road, which isn't generally a great position for an early-down back to be in. Also, with Josh Jacobs (shoulder) out in Week 13, Jalen Richard still stole a fair amount of snaps, a trend that will likely continue this weekend. If Washington isn’t able to get into the end zone, he’s likely going to be a major disaster for GPP lineups. On FanDuel, I’d much prefer spending a little more for Devonta Freeman or Phillip Lindsay, and I’d do the same thing on DraftKings despite the price difference being a little more pronounced. Again, there is viability in cash games, but at this ownership in tournaments, there is no way I won’t be underweight.
RBs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: James Conner (@ Jets), Miles Sanders (vs. Cowboys)
RBs that I think are being overvalued: Joe Mixon (@ Dolphins)
WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS: Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
Week 16 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
LOW: Amari Cooper, Cowboys @ Eagles (8.6% pOWN on FanDuel, 10.1% on DraftKings). Between Dak Prescott’s shoulder injury and a disappointing Week 15, I would expect Cooper’s ownership to be far lower than it should be. The Eagles are an absolute train wreck in the secondary and haven’t shown any signs of life lately, getting trounced by Eli Manning in the first half of Week 14 before the Giants play-calling went into the gutter. Philadelphia followed that up by allowing a big day to Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin. Even a hobbled Dak should be able to exploit this defense. I’m of the thought that his injury won’t be as impactful on Sunday as the public seems to think, so I’ll be well overweight on the Cowboys aerial attack in the NFC East division battle.
HIGH: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Cardinals (22.1% pOWN on FanDuel, 16.6% on DraftKings). Marquise Brown almost found himself in this spot, but I’m not expecting him to be quite as popular as our pOWN models suggest at this point. Brown’s target and snap counts leave a lot to be desired and despite the cheap price tag, he’s not someone I’m making a point to include in my builds. That leaves us with Lockett, who appears to be over the illness that slowed him for a chunk of December, but like Russell Wilson, I’m not sold that the volume will be enough to warrant this type of public love. As nice as it was to see Lockett bounce back last week, I don’t think he’ll keep that up against Arizona in a game I’d expect Seattle to control on the ground.
Other notable WRs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Michael Gallup (@ Eagles), Darius Slayton (@ Redskins), Jamison Crowder (vs. Steelers)
Other notable WRs that I think are being overvalued: Marquise Brown (@ Browns), Terry McLaurin (vs. Giants)
WEEK 16 NON-PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Week 16 Projected NFL DFS Ownership: Tight end
LOW: Hunter Henry, Chargers vs. Raiders (7.0% pOWN on FanDuel, 6.8% on DraftKings). Henry has had a tough go of it the past three weeks, failing to top four targets in any of those games, but he does step into a positive draw with Oakland on Sunday. The Raiders have been very friendly to the TE spot, and with most of the DFS public herding toward Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, there is a lot of merit to pivoting over to Henry here. To be fair, all of the Chargers pass-catchers are in above-average spots, but Henry’s not going to stay this quiet for long.
Other notable TEs at a low ownership with a chance to boom: Mike Gesicki (vs. Bengals), Kaden Smith (@ Redskins)
Notable TE that I think are being overvalued: Mark Andrews (@ Browns)