It will be interesting to see how people approach the Week 16 NFL DFS main slate-leading Superdome total, as the Saints and Steelers both feature improving defenses that come off high-profile matchups that went very much UNDER. UFCollective projects various players to hit decent DraftKings ownership in Steelers-Steelers, such as Michael Thomas ($8,100) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,000), but intriguing players in other games should flatten out the distribution.
I'll reference UFCollective and parse themes affecting DraftKings GPP roster rates on the Sunday main slate, featuring 12 games at 1 and 4 p.m. ET.
Week 16 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 16 DFS Ownership: Quarterback
Dak Prescott ($5,700) figures to get plenty of run at well under $6K facing the green-shaded 25th-ranked defense against QBs in DK scoring, and UFCollective has the people fading last week's road dud. ... UFCollective also sees Josh Allen ($5,800) riding toward double-digit ownership after banking a few weeks over 3X value.
Deshaun Watson ($6,600) could easily clear sub-five percent at this price, especially since DeAndre Hopkins rolled his ankle Saturday night and the Eagles rolled Jared Goff Sunday night. However, if 'Nuk is healthy enough and Philly's secondary reverts to the form that gave up 434 pass yards the week prior, it could be a contrarian stud spot.
WEEK 16 DFS CASH LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 16 DFS Ownership: Running Back
Ezekiel Elliott ($9,000) and Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) look like the chalk at RB, as only two other featured backs on the main slate land in their neighborhood for pass volume. There will likely also be an influx for CMC from #NarrativeStreet, as Carolina's backup QB will be expected to lean on his running back even more often than Cam, which seems hard to do.
Saquon Barkley ($7,900) and Joe Mixon ($7,100) could go low-mid tier in roster rate at the position, even though their usage via ground and air could near that of Zeke and CMC. Injury and QB concerns will get people fading the Giants and Bengals offenses in their entirety. It sets up as an interesting lesser-owned tandem than what we could see with some of Zeke/CMC builds.
WEEK 16 DFS GPP LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 16 DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson ($4,500) and Josh Reynolds ($4,600) shape up as chalky cap-savers in DK tournaments, as they each saw top-five target volume and air yards last week. Since both received little in the way of price adjustment, they'll both find their way to plenty of WR2-3 slots. ... UFCollective sees Robert Woods ($6,600) at reduced price getting even more shares than his Rams teammate.
Mike Evans ($6,800) and Chris Godwin ($4,300) will get the fade in visiting Dallas, where the Cowboys stifled Drew Brees less than a month ago. The bold-red "3rd" against WRs on DK will also help depress ownership, though the Evans-Godwin couplet sees a combined discount of $1,300 from two weeks ago even though they rank first and 18th in air yards over that span, respectively.
MORE WEEK 16 DFS: Values | Stacks | Lineup builder
NFL Week 16 DFS Ownership: Tight End
Eric Ebron ($5,700) hits this bounce-back spot as a frontrunner for top chalk in UFCollective's tight end projections. ... Same for Zach Ertz ($5,900) after his own dud week, though there will probably be more wariness for the DK masses with no Carson Wentz to lock in crazy-high target volume.
Evan Engram ($4,600) hit 3.5X value last Sunday and on a main slate that crushed just about everyone's tight end plays. However, Engram's burned enough people this season that he probably still goes relatively low-owned even as an option at mid-tier TE cost.